Northern Illinois

Profile vs. FBS, 2018

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense−0.027th
  Defense+0.0181st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.6%25th
  Defense37.1%89th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.032nd
  Defense+1.2531st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0745th
  Defense−0.1498th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense−0.124th
  Defense+0.1650th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.3%29th
  Defense38.4%99th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense28.2%9th
  Defense34.9%32nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0061st
  Defense2.4195th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.8%86th
  Defense21.0%66th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.4%71st
  Defense15.2%30th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2018

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Northern Illinois allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   IOWA
2. L
   UTAH
3. W
   CMU
4. L
   FSU
5. W
   EMU
6. W
   BALL
7. W
   OHIO
8. W
   BYU
9. W
   AKR
10. W
    TOL
11. L
    M-OH
12. L
    WMU
13. W
    BUF
14. L
    UAB

Bars above the line: better than expected for Northern Illinois.

Players, 2018

1. Marcus ChildersQB533 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 34th of 225 QBs
   1.74WAR0.90 to 2.57
2. Tre HarbisonRB193 plays · +0.264 pts/play · 4th of 351 RBs
   0.95WAR0.80 to 1.10
3. Marcus JonesRB107 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 126th of 351 RBs
   0.33WAR0.25 to 0.42
4. Jauan WesleyWR74 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 81st of 434 WRs
   0.16WAR0.07 to 0.24
5. Matt FerenceP82 plays · +0.089 pts/play · 11th of 91 punters
   0.14WAR0.04 to 0.24
6. Andrew GantzPK18 plays · +0.389 pts/play · 33rd of 112 kickers
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.17
7. D.J. BrownWR97 plays · +0.047 pts/play · 222nd of 434 WRs
   0.09WAR−0.02 to 0.21
8. Spencer TearsWR74 plays · +0.039 pts/play · 305th of 434 WRs
   0.05WAR−0.04 to 0.17

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Northern Illinois's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2018

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  43243288th of 130Roster talent: 432, 88th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  12912995th of 130Recruiting: 129, 95th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  63%63%67th of 129Returning production: 63%, 67th of 129 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −2.7−2.789th of 130SP+ rating: −2.7, 89th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Northern Illinois's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.21 of the 0.29 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at BYUQ4 0:03 4th & 26 at NIU 36, up 1Went for it; the numbers favored punting−10.4 pts
2. vs OHIOQ3 10:24 4th & 3 at OHIO 37, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
3. at EMUQ4 15:00 4th & 6 at EMU 38, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
4. at IOWAQ3 15:00 4th & 1 at NIU 44, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
5. at AKRQ3 7:11 4th & 1 at NIU 35, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
6. at EMUQ3 3:54 4th & 3 at NIU 47, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
7. at BALLQ4 5:26 4th & 4 at BALL 20, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
8. at FSUQ3 9:00 4th & 3 at midfield, down 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2018

23rd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Northern Illinois's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   IOWA
2. L

   UTAH
3. W

   CMU
4. L

   FSU
5. W

   EMU
6. W

   BALL
7. W

   OHIO
8. W

   BYU
9. W

   AKR
10. W

    TOL
11. L

    M-OH
12. L

    WMU
13. W

    BUF
14. L

    UAB

What moved it, 2018

Every game starts at Northern Illinois's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.89
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock−0.09
• Timeouts+0.19
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.22

Game by game

• IOWAL 7-33 at IOWA23% → 0%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −25, Timeouts −1
• UTAHL 6-17 vs UTAH17% → 3%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −27, Clock −2
• CMUW 24-16 vs CMU85% → 97%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +1
• FSUL 19-37 at FSU20% → 1%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts −1
• EMUW 26-23 at EMU43% → 88%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +42, Timeouts +19
• BALLW 24-16 at BALL51% → 95%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +47, Clock +2
• OHIOW 24-21 vs OHIO65% → 92%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +2
• BYUW 7-6 at BYU30% → 92%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +53, Clock +4
• AKRW 36-26 at AKR70% → 96%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +37, Clock +3
• TOLW 38-15 vs TOL60% → 99%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +38, Clock +1
• M-OHL 7-13 vs M-OH67% → 5%Before kickoff +17 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −53, Clock −3
• WMUL 21-28 at WMU63% → 4%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −2
• BUFW 30-29 at BUF42% → 87%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +43, Clock +3
• UABL 13-37 vs UAB42% → 1%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −47, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Northern Illinois's side.

Closest call

NIU 55-14 AKR (2023) - Northern Illinois dropped to a 4.2% win probability before pulling it out.