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TOL

Toledo 15 at Northern Illinois 38

NIU
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 7, 2018 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:55 · Matt Ference punt for 46 yds, downed at the Toled 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.3Pregame prior+8.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:12: Andrew Gantz 49 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +4.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:38: Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest PAT MISSED) — TOL win probability +6.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:18: Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +8.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:06: Marcus Childers run for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:27: Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TOL win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 12:49NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:18TOL 4th & 8 at NIU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35TOL 4th & 17 at NIU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:55NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:01TOL 4th & 19 at TOL 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:00TOL 4th & 9 at NIU 35, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:12NIU 4th & 7 at TOL 31, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:04NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:47TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 38, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:26TOL 4th & 4 at NIU 40, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%
    34% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:26TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−2.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:51TOL 4th & 6 at NIU 44, down 15
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−1.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:13TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:07TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 20, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:12TOL 4th & 3 at NIU 49, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:29NIU 4th & 9 at TOL 37, up 22
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:10TOL 4th & 1 at NIU 45, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:36NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:38TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:18NIU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:06NIU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:27TOL Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:18NIU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0461% → 61%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.5%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
60.5%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
60.5%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
60.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
60.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
60.6%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
60.5%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1540% → 40%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
60.2%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+19
60.1%
Art Thompkins run for 19 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
60.0%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+3
59.9%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+9
59.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 9 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
59.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 2 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q1 9:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
59.9%
Jameson Vest 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:2360% → 60%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.9%
Marcus Jones run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
59.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+23
59.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 23 yds Jauan Wesley fumbled, forced by Jordan Fisher, recovered by Toled Justin ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:5541% → 40%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
59.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 4 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
58.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+32
58.9%
Eli Peters run for 32 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
58.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 3 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-5
58.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 14Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 12
OPP 14
-5
58.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 19Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 17
OPP 19
0
59.0%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+36
59.8%
Jameson Vest 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2959% → 58%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
58.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tre Harbison for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
58.9%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+3
58.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 3 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
58.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
58.6%
Marcus Jones run for 6 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+2
59.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Corey Lersch for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
58.4%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds, downed at the Toled 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:4941% → 41%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
58.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
59.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 10
OWN 16
-9
59.4%
Eli Peters sacked by Sutton Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 7 Eli Peters fumbled, recovered by Toled Brock Ruble , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 19
OWN 7
0
59.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the Toled 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:0960% → 63%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
59.9%
Tre Harbison run for 9 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+3
59.9%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
60.4%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
60.3%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+33
62.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Corey Lersch for 33 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:2338% → 38%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
61.6%
Art Thompkins run for 15 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
60.6%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
60.4%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+11
60.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
60.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+6
60.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 6 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
59.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
60.5%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
61.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 28 yds, downed at the NoIll 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:4862% → 68%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
61.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the NoIll 4Similar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 13
OWN 13
-1
62.0%
Marcus Childers run for 9 yds to the NoIll 13 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 3Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 14
OWN 3
+6
61.9%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+10
61.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 10 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
62.2%
Tre Harbison run for 9 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+15
63.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 15 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
63.5%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
63.8%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
64.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 12 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
64.9%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
65.0%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-3
64.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
68.4%
Andrew Gantz 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2932% → 42%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
68.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 10 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
67.3%
Bryant Koback run for 20 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
65.9%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
65.7%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+15
66.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 15 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
64.8%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
58.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2463% → 61%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.0%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
63.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 4 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-10
63.2%
Marcus Childers sacked by Saeed Holt for a loss of 10 yards to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
61.1%
Matt Ference punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Diontae Johnson at the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0838% → 28%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
61.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 9 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
59.6%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-1
59.8%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+27
71.8%
Bailey Flint punt blocked by Sutton Smith, Sutton Smith return for 27 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 1:1428% → 30%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.8%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
71.5%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
71.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 11 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
70.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 13 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
68.3%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
68.8%
Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
68.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
69.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
76.2%
Marcus Jones run for 9 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2227% → 25%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+18
73.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
73.1%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+15
73.0%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
71.5%
Eli Peters sacked by Kyle Pugh for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+5
73.4%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
74.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
75.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:5875% → 88%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
75.2%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+9
75.8%
Marcus Childers run for 9 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
75.8%
Tre Harbison run for 20 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
77.9%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+8
78.1%
Marcus Jones run for 8 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
78.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
78.6%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+10
78.0%
Marcus Childers run for 10 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
79.2%
Marcus Jones run for 17 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.4%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.0%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:1515% → 14%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
85.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 19 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
84.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
84.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+11
85.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 11 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
84.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+9
85.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 9 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
85.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
85.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
86.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoIll 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:0388% → 92%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
88.4%
Marcus Childers run for 12 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
90.3%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+4
90.7%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+9
90.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 9 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
91.7%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-4
92.1%
Spencer Tears run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
91.7%
Marcus Childers pass intercepted Zachary Ford return for no gain to the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:1511% → 9%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
89.2%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
89.3%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-9
89.8%
Eli Peters sacked by Jack Heflin for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 18
OWN 32
0
91.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 0:5793% → 98%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+33
92.7%
Tre Harbison run for 33 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
93.3%
Tre Harbison run for 8 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+5
93.5%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
98.2%
Marcus Childers run for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:492% → 2%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
98.0%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 11
0
98.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+9
98.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Art Thompkins for 9 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+9
98.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 9 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
98.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
98.3%
Eli Peters sacked by Jack Heflin and Weston Kramer for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 42Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+9
98.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 9 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
98.4%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
98.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:2199% → 99%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
98.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 13 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
98.7%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+5
98.8%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-1
98.8%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
98.7%
Matt Ference punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:441% → 4%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
98.8%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-5
98.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Mitchell Berg) to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+13
98.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 13 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
98.9%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 4 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
99.2%
Eli Peters run for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+8
99.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.2%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-2
99.3%
Eli Peters sacked by Jack Heflin for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+13
99.4%
Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+35
99.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Cody Thompson for 35 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 5 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.5%
Marcus Jones run for 44 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25Uncategorized
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:121% → 1%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
99.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dillon Thomas) to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.4%
Ronnie Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
99.4%
Ronnie Jones run for 8 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.5%
Eli Peters run for 7 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
99.4%
Eli Peters run for 2 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+21
99.5%
Ronnie Jones run for 21 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
99.3%
Ronnie Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+12
99.4%
Eli Peters run for 12 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-3
99.5%
Ronnie Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:18
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q2 4:38
Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest PAT MISSED)
-6.4
TD · Q3 0:06
Marcus Childers run for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com