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NIU

Northern Illinois 24 at Ball State 16

BALL
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:19 · Matt Ference punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense−9.0Score differential−4.7Garbage-time factor−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:51: Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 13 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +4.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:16: Tre Harbison run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +8.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:47: Tre Harbison run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +15.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:15: James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +32.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. FG · Q4 5:26: Andrew Gantz 27 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +13.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 9 of 13NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 21 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:40NIU 4th & 17 at NIU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:29BALL 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:06NIU 4th & 19 at NIU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:13BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:11BALL 4th & 1 at NIU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−1.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:32BALL 4th & 9 at NIU 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−3.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:19NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.1%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:19NIU 4th & 20 at NIU 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:25BALL 4th & 4 at NIU 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:39BALL 4th & 5 at NIU 43, down 8
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−1.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:41BALL 4th & 4 at NIU 41, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−2.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:24BALL 4th & 5 at NIU 30, down 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 21, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−5.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:38BALL 4th & 6 at NIU 40, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:26NIU 4th & 4 at BALL 20, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%−1.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−16.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:18BALL 4th & 1 at NIU 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−1.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−7.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:16NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:06BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:06BALL 4th & 10 at NIU 35, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:51NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:16NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:47NIU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:15BALL Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
48.7%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
48.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 11 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
48.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
48.7%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+13
48.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 13 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-11
48.7%
Riley Neal sacked by Lance Deveaux Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
50
-6
48.7%
Justin Hall run for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 27
OWN 44
+6
48.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 21
50
+41
48.7%
Riley Neal punt for 41 yds, downed at the BALLST 9 NORTHERNIL Penalty, ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
49.5%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+11
49.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 11 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
49.4%
D.J. Brown run for 19 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
49.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
49.1%
D.J. Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
49.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 12
OWN 43
-5
49.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 17
OWN 38
+27
49.7%
Matt Ference punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALLST 30 NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
50.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
50.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
50.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
50.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 6
50
0
50.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 6
50
0
49.8%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1450% → 55%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
49.8%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
49.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete, broken up by Ray WilbornSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+64
50.1%
Marcus Jones run for 64 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
45.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 13 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
46.8%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
46.8%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+10
46.8%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to MILLER, Riley, PENALTY NIU holding (FOSTER, Traysho) 10 yards to the BALL48, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
47.6%
Malik Dunner run for 6 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+6
47.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
47.8%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
47.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 4 yds Yo'Heinz Tyler fumbled, forced by Jordan Cole, recovered by NoIll Kyle PughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
45.7%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
45.6%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+12
45.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 12 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
45.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by Jacob WhiteSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
45.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jordan Nettles for 3 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-5
45.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (D.J. Brown) to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 12
OWN 47
-7
45.8%
Marcus Childers sacked by Fred Schroeder for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 19
OWN 40
0
46.5%
Matt Ference punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:3446% → 45%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.5%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
45.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for 9 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.8%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
45.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for no gain to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-6
45.1%
Riley Neal sacked by Antonio Jones-Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+2
44.8%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 29 , Cole Tucker returns for 2 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:5055% → 65%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
45.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 11 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
44.2%
Jordan Nettles run for 1 yd to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
44.4%
Tre Harbison run for 10 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
43.9%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
43.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 9 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
43.8%
Marcus Jones run for 5 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+10
43.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 10 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
43.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 11 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
43.6%
D.J. Brown run for 10 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.8%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 4:3937% → 39%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
36.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 11 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
37.5%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
37.9%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+13
37.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 13 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
38.1%
James Gilbert run for 14 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
38.6%
Malik Dunner run for 4 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
38.6%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
38.2%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the NoIll 20Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
38.0%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
38.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
38.6%
James Gilbert run for 13 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
37.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the NoIll 3Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
37.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
36.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Nolan Givan for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 9Similar
Q2 6:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
38.7%
Morgan Hagee 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 15 yds · 1:1362% → 56%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
37.5%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
37.7%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
43.8%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
43.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
50
+3
42.0%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-4
42.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 11
OWN 49
-9
42.9%
Marcus Childers sacked by James Jennette III for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
44.1%
Matt Ference punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:0236% → 39%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
35.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kyle Schrank for 5 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
36.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+7
35.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 7 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
36.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+15
36.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
50
+10
37.8%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to LACANARIA, C., PENALTY NIU holding (EMBRY, Jalen) 10 yards to the NIU40, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
38.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
38.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Devin Reece, broken up by Jalen EmbrySimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+6
37.3%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+51
38.5%
Morgan Hagee 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0065% → 67%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
34.6%
Jordan Nettles run for 12 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
33.8%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
33.1%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.1%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
33.4%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
33.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-3
34.8%
Matt Ference punt for 41 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0035% → 37%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
35.4%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
35.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 2 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+24
34.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 24 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
38.9%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
39.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Nolan Givan, broken up by Lance Deveaux Jr.Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+3
37.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 3 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
36.5%
Riley Neal punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:3767% → 86%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
33.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 7 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
31.7%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
32.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 13 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
30.9%
Marcus Jones run for no gain to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
31.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 9 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
31.0%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
30.5%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
30.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+14
31.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 14 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
30.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker, broken up by Amechi Uzodinma IISimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
30.1%
Marcus Jones run for 16 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
29.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 6 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+8
29.9%
Tre Harbison run for 8 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.3%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 5:1718% → 21%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
18.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+3
18.1%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+19
18.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 19 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
19.1%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
19.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
18.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 9 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
20.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
20.2%
Riley Neal run for 12 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
21.3%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
21.3%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
21.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+6
20.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
21.9%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+1
22.2%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
21.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Devin ReeceSimilar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
21.4%
Morgan Hagee 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:2483% → 83%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.7%
Marcus Jones run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
16.3%
Marcus Childers sacked by Shannon Hall for a loss of 10 yards to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+1
17.0%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
17.4%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
19.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
19.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for no gain to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+10
18.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kyle Schrank for 10 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
20.0%
Malik Dunner run for 11 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
21.2%
Malik Dunner run for no gain to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
20.6%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to DUNNER, Malik, dropped pass, PENALTY BALL holding (BEECH, Chris) 10 yards to the BALL46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+5
18.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 5 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+9
18.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Malik Dunner for 9 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
19.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
10.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
10.8%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+46
11.0%
Marcus Childers pass intercepted for a 1ST down Ray Wilborn return for 43 yds to the BALLST 15 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (3 Yards) to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q4 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
43.7%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:4272% → 89%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
28.0%
Marcus Jones run for 15 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
25.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 1 yd to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 9
OPP 0
0
22.6%
BALL ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+13
25.4%
Marcus Jones run for 13 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
24.3%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+18
24.3%
Marcus Childers run for 18 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
22.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
23.0%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+3
24.6%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+27
11.0%
Andrew Gantz 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:0815% → 11%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
15.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
14.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 18 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
17.6%
James Gilbert run for 13 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
18.9%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
21.1%
Malik Dunner run for 4 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
19.7%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-2
10.9%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:5895% → 96%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
5.0%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
5.0%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-3
4.6%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+5
4.2%
Matt Ference punt for 48 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 5 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
4.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 3 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
4.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to James GilbertSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
4.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Mykelti WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+23
4.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
50
0
5.8%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
50
+8
5.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 8 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+7
6.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
7.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Tifonte HuntSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
7.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to James GilbertSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
6.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
4.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:15
James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)
+32.7
TD · Q3 5:47
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-15.6
FG · Q4 5:26
Andrew Gantz 27 yd FG GOOD
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com