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NIU

Northern Illinois 30 at Buffalo 29

BUF
2018 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2018 · Ford Field
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:17 · Matt Ference punt for 38 yds, downed at the Buff 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior+8.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:51: Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 13 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +10.5 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 44%).
  2. TD · Q3 11:25: Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +11.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:17: Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +10.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:51: Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 32 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +24.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:09: Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 35 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NIU win probability +51.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:17NIU 4th & 4 at BUF 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:55BUF 4th & 1 at NIU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:55NIU 4th & 7 at BUF 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    36.5%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:50NIU 4th & 1 at BUF 49, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.7%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:00NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.4%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:42NIU 4th & 16 at BUF 22, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:03BUF 4th & 2 at NIU 7, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%−1.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−9.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:46NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:14NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 41, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:38BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 12, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:58BUF 4th & 21 at BUF 5, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:08BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 26, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:56BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 41, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−2.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:30NIU 4th & 16 at NIU 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−2.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:21BUF 4th & 10 at NIU 41, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 10.4 ptsWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%−10.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%
    32% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−20.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:38BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:51NIU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:41BUF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:25BUF Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:17NIU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:51NIU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:09NIU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    63.2%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:3642% → 42%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
58.5%
Jordan Nettles run for 6 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
58.5%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+10
58.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
50
+1
58.3%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
58.3%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
58.3%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
58.4%
Matt Ference punt for 38 yds, downed at the Buff 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2TD
15 plays · 94 yds · 5:3259% → 63%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
58.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 12 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
58.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+16
58.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 16 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
58.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 17 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
59.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+15
59.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
59.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 6 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
59.6%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+3
59.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
59.0%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
59.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
59.6%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.7%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:3038% → 38%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
61.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 34 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
61.0%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+1
61.1%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
61.4%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
62.1%
Matt Ference punt for 32 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 4:5562% → 72%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
62.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+8
62.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 8 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+3
62.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
63.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+5
63.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
63.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+39
64.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 24 yds to the BUFFALO 48 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
64.7%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 36Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+8
64.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 8 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+15
64.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 15 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
71.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 13 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5932% → 40%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.5%
D.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
68.5%
Marcus Childers sacked by Jordan Collier for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
69.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 17 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
69.1%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+1
68.9%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
69.3%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
70.0%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
69.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 24 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
69.0%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
69.2%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+7
70.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 7 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
59.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 13 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0465% → 75%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.3%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
65.5%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
66.3%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
67.3%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
68.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 8 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+13
68.6%
Kevin Marks run for 13 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
69.0%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+26
75.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 3:4827% → 29%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
72.9%
Marcus Childers sacked by James Patterson for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+11
73.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 11 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
73.0%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
73.3%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
73.1%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+7
72.5%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
72.4%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+33
72.8%
Marcus Childers run for 33 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
71.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 5 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-11
71.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Roberts) to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 16
OPP 22
0
72.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 16
OPP 22
0
73.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 16
OPP 22
+39
71.2%
Andrew Gantz 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 70 yds · 1:2571% → 75%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
70.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+18
71.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Weston Kramer) to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
73.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+31
73.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 31 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
73.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 2
OPP 7
0
72.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
70.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+24
74.9%
Adam Mitcheson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2779% → 92%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
79.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
80.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 2 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
80.6%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+36
79.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 36 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
81.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
81.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-5
81.3%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (Evin Ksiezarczyk) to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+16
81.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 16 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:0312% → 10%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.2%
Jordan Nettles run for 9 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
87.6%
Marcus Childers sacked by Myles Nicholas for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
88.6%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
88.7%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
88.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Ty Harmston for 1 yd to the NoIll 39Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
89.2%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
89.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
90.0%
Matt Ference punt for 43 yds, downed at the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2993% → 92%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
93.3%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 14Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
92.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-2
92.3%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 12Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
92.2%
Evan Finegan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-13
90.7%
Marcus Childers pass intercepted Tatum Slack return for a loss of 13 yards to the Buff 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 4:2293% → 92%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
92.9%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-5
93.1%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Sutton Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 2Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 13
OWN 2
+14
91.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 14 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
93.6%
Kevin Marks run for 7 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 3
OWN 23
-10
94.0%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Josh Corcoran for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 13
OWN 13
-8
93.1%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Josh Corcoran for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 5Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 21
OWN 5
+4
92.3%
Evan Finegan punt for 33 yds , Cole Tucker returns for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:379% → 19%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
90.6%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
90.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 6 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+5
91.5%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
91.6%
Marcus Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+28
81.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5788% → 87%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
87.5%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+5
87.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
86.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jaret PattersonSimilar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
86.8%
Evan Finegan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:1216% → 41%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
84.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 19 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
83.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 8 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
83.5%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
59.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 32 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:4174% → 75%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
75.5%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.9%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
77.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
75.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (James O'Hagan) to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+8
74.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 8 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
74.7%
Evan Finegan punt for 56 yds, downed at the NoIll 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:2032% → 27%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
68.5%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+8
69.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 8 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
67.8%
Marcus Childers run for 12 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
67.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Mitchell Brinkman) to the NoIll 21Similar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-7
67.9%
Marcus Childers sacked by Khalil Hodge and DeShondrick Foxworth for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 14Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-7
67.9%
Marcus Childers sacked by Khalil Hodge and DeShondrick Foxworth for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 14Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 22
OWN 14
0
70.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 22
OWN 14
+6
72.0%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
73.1%
Matt Ference punt for 40 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · -9 yds · 4:0285% → 85%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
84.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for 6 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
85.1%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
84.9%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
87.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Paul Nosworthy) to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+3
86.0%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 17
OWN 45
0
85.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 17
OWN 45
-14
85.4%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Sutton Smith for a loss of 14 yards to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 31
OWN 31
0
84.6%
Evan Finegan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:0127% → 82%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
73.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 8 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
69.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 4 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
71.3%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
73.0%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+12
74.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 12 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
68.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
68.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 11 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
17.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 35 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:4041% → 39%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
41.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 19 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
45.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
42.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jalen Embry) to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
48.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
47.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
44.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
38.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23Uncategorized
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
12.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:09
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 35 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-51
TD · Q4 12:51
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 32 yds for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-24.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com