Northern Illinois

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2685th
  Defense+0.299th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.1%76th
  Defense48.4%7th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2541st
  Defense+1.3134th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2487th
  Defense+0.342nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3787th
  Defense+0.2341st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.0%78th
  Defense53.3%7th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.1%68th
  Defense36.5%12th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4188th
  Defense3.652nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense10.9%99th
  Defense11.5%5th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.6%88th
  Defense12.2%5th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Northern Illinois allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   GT
2. L
   WYO
3. L
   MICH
4. W
   ME
5. W
   EMU
6. W
   TOL
7. W
   BGSU
8. W
   CMU
9. L
   KENT
10. W
    BALL
11. W
    BUF
12. L
    WMU
13. W
    KENT
14. L
    CCU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Northern Illinois.

Players, 2021

1. Rocky LombardiQB368 plays · +0.250 pts/play · 50th of 219 QBs
   1.72WAR0.96 to 2.55
2. Jay DuckerRB189 plays · +0.203 pts/play · 33rd of 387 RBs
   0.72WAR0.55 to 0.93
3. Clint RatkovichRB92 plays · +0.188 pts/play · 140th of 387 RBs
   0.32WAR0.23 to 0.44
4. Antario BrownRB77 plays · +0.196 pts/play · 163rd of 387 RBs
   0.28WAR0.19 to 0.36
5. Trayvon RudolphWR84 plays · +0.144 pts/play · 45th of 474 WRs
   0.23WAR0.13 to 0.34
6. Tyrice RichieWR53 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 98th of 474 WRs
   0.17WAR0.12 to 0.22
7. Cole TuckerWR53 plays · +0.155 pts/play · 126th of 474 WRs
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.22
8. John RichardsonPK21 plays · +0.324 pts/play · 15th of 128 kickers
   0.13WAR0.08 to 0.18

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Northern Illinois's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  354354114th of 130Roster talent: 354, 114th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14214295th of 130Recruiting: 142, 95th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  54%54%98th of 128Returning production: 54%, 98th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −7.1−7.197th of 130SP+ rating: −7.1, 97th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Northern Illinois's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at BUFQ3 1:21 4th & 1 at NIU 44, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
2. at GTQ4 10:16 4th & 3 at NIU 27, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
3. vs BALLQ4 11:42 4th & 6 at BALL 45, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
4. at KENTQ4 7:17 4th & 4 at KENT 16, down 12Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
5. at GTQ3 3:17 4th & 4 at GT 48, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. at GTQ3 12:06 4th & 3 at NIU 37, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. vs EMUQ4 3:25 4th & 4 at EMU 7, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at TOLQ2 6:14 4th & 4 at TOL 8, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

4th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Northern Illinois's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   GT
2. L

   WYO
3. L

   MICH
4. W

   ME
5. W

   EMU
6. W

   TOL
7. W

   BGSU
8. W

   CMU
9. L

   KENT
10. W

    BALL
11. W

    BUF
12. L

    WMU
13. W

    KENT
14. L

    CCU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Northern Illinois's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.00
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.08
• Timeouts+0.18
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.98

Game by game

• GTW 22-21 at GT10% → 66%Before kickoff −40 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +23, Possession & field position −1
• WYOL 43-50 vs WYO29% → 4%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −38, Clock −2
• MICHL 10-63 at MICH4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
• MEW 41-14 vs ME93% → 89%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −4: Scoreboard +12, Clock +1
• EMUW 27-20 vs EMU51% → 97%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +3
• TOLW 22-20 at TOL17% → 86%Before kickoff −33 · On the field +69: Scoreboard +41, Clock +4
• BGSUW 34-26 vs BGSU74% → 94%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +25, Timeouts +2
• CMUW 39-38 at CMU31% → 93%Before kickoff −19 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• KENTL 47-52 at KENT37% → 5%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −3
• BALLW 30-29 vs BALL41% → 96%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +2
• BUFW 33-27 at BUF54% → 90%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +42, Timeouts +18
• WMUL 21-42 vs WMU29% → 0%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −35, Clock −2
• KENTW 41-23 vs KENT37% → 99%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +51, Possession & field position −2
• CCUL 41-47 at CCU19% → 14%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −18, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Northern Illinois's side.

Closest call

NIU 55-14 AKR (2023) - Northern Illinois dropped to a 4.2% win probability before pulling it out.