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NIU

Northern Illinois 10 at Michigan 63

MICH
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:06 · Matt Ference punt for 51 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+18.5Home team on offense+35.9Score differential+29.2Blowout margin+17.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.7Garbage-time factor+7.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:05: Cade McNamara 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +0.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:52: Blake Corum 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +0.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:55: Hassan Haskins 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:15: Hassan Haskins 5 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:53: Cornelius Johnson 87 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:27NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10NIU 4th & 2 at MICH 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:03NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:09NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:27NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:06NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 36, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:21NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 25, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:55NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 30, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:06NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 49, down 60
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:51MICH 4th & 9 at NIU 32, up 60
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:08MICH 4th & 2 at midfield, up 53
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:22MICH 4th & 12 at NIU 34, up 53
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 9 of 9NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:05MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:52MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:55MICH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:15MICH Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:53MICH Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:39MICH Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:36MICH Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:40MICH Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:13MICH Touchdown, up 59 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:28NIU Touchdown, down 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:244% → 4%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
96.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 2 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie, broken up by Daxton HillSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+25
95.9%
Matt Ference punt for 45 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 25 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:1696% → 96%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
95.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 14 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
95.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+13
95.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 13 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.7%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Luke SchoonmakerSimilar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+16
95.7%
Blake Corum run for 16 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
95.6%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
Cade McNamara 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:484% → 5%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
95.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 15 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
95.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+10
95.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 10 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
95.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+12
95.2%
Clint Ratkovich run for 12 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
95.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 16 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
94.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
94.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+6
94.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 6 yds to the Mich 3Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+21
94.7%
John Richardson 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0795% → 95%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
94.6%
A.J. Henning run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
50
+11
94.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 11 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.6%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson, broken up by Jordan GandySimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
94.6%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
94.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
94.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+8
94.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
94.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 13 yds to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+1
94.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the NoIll 2Similar
Q1 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.0%
Blake Corum 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:425% → 5%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.8%
Tyrice Richie run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Tristen Tewes) to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
94.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 2 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
95.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Mohamed ToureSimilar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+8
95.0%
Matt Ference punt for 50 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 8 yds to the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:0595% → 96%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
94.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 24 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 9
OPP 40
+24
94.8%
Blake Corum run for 24 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
94.8%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
94.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
95.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
Hassan Haskins 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:364% → 4%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.0%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-15
95.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Messiah Travis) to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+7
96.1%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
96.1%
Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
96.1%
Matt Ference punt for 48 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 3 yds to the Mich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:4696% → 98%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.4%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+14
96.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 14 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
96.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+15
96.5%
McNamara, Cade pass incomplete to Baldwin, Daylen, PENALTY NORTHERNIL pass interference (Gandy, Jordan) 15 yards to the NORTHERNIL39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
96.5%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+9
96.5%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
96.5%
Cade McNamara run for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 35 Cade McNamara fumbled, recovered by Mich Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+23
96.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 23 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
96.3%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
96.3%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
97.5%
Hassan Haskins 5 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 11 yds · 3:594% → 3%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
95.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
95.2%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
96.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
97.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
97.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (David Ojabo) to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
95.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah Travis, broken up by Brad HawkinsSimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-7
95.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+2
97.5%
Matt Ference punt for 43 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 2 yds to the Mich 38 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (Andrew Russell) to the Mich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
99.3%
Cornelius Johnson 87 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
99.6%
Ference, Matt punt 42 yards to the MICHIGAN27, Wilson, Roman return 9 yards to the MICHIGAN36, PENALTY MICHIGAN roughing the kicker (Sainristil, Mike) 15 yards to the NORTHERNIL46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL.Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:1299% → 100%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 15 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+51
99.6%
Blake Corum 51 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
99.6%
Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+32
99.7%
Matt Ference punt for 55 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 32 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:38100% → 100%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
99.7%
Roman Wilson run for 10 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
99.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
99.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
99.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+16
99.8%
J.J. McCarthy run for 16 yds to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.8%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Blake Corum 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-27
99.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Gemon Green return for 27 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q3 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.8%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Donovan Edwards 4 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+15
99.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Demond Taylor Jr.) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds, downed at the Mich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
99.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 18 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
99.9%
Donovan Edwards 58 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 2:580% → 0%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 9 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Mohamed ToureSimilar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Liam Soraghan, broken up by Michael BarrettSimilar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Matt Ference punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 12 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 7 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+28
99.9%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 28 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.9%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-10
99.9%
Dunlap, Tavierre rush for 29 yards to the NORTHERNIL0, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Jones, Trente) 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+7
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cristian Dixon for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cristian DixonSimilar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 9
OPP 32
0
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cristian DixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 4:140% → 0%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
Erin Collins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
Erin Collins run for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-1
100.0%
Erin Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+5
100.0%
Ference, Matt punt 47 yards to the MICHIGAN14, Anthony, Andrel return 21 yards to the MICHIGAN35, PENALTY MICHIGAN illegal procedure 5 yards to the NORTHERNIL44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL.Similar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+45
100.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 45 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Erin Collins run for no gain to the Mich 11Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
100.0%
Erin Collins run for 2 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Cole Tucker 9 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (John Richardson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 27 yds · 6:52100% → 100%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Tavierre Dunlap run for no gain to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.9%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 4 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Dan Villari run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 2
50
+8
99.9%
Dan Villari run for 8 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Isaiah Gash run for 2 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
100.0%
Taylor, Joe rush for no gain to the NORTHERNIL40, PENALTY NORTHERNIL substitution infraction 5 yards to the NORTHERNIL35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+3
100.0%
Isaiah Gash run for 3 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
100.0%
Isaiah Gash run for 2 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
100.0%
Christian Boivin run for 2 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-6
100.0%
Dan Villari run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 12
OPP 34
+3
100.0%
Isaiah Gash run for 3 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
100.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Billy Dozier for 12 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
100.0%
Erin Collins run for 1 yd to the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:53
Cornelius Johnson 87 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick)
+1.9
TD · Q2 12:55
Hassan Haskins 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)
+1.4
TD · Q2 6:15
Hassan Haskins 5 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com