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NIU

Northern Illinois 41 at Coastal Carolina 47

CCU
2021 · Tailgreeter Cure Bowl · Dec 17, 2021 · Orlando City Stadium
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:49 · Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+3.9Home team on offense−7.5Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score differential−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:08: Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd for a TD (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +15.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:27: Braydon Bennett run for 60 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +17.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:13: Antario Brown run for 7 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +21.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:07: Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CCU win probability +34.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 6:40: Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 34 yds for a TD (Grayson McCall pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion) — CCU win probability +46.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:30NIU 4th & 1 at CCU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:43NIU 4th & 7 at CCU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:46CCU 4th & 5 at NIU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:48CCU 4th & 10 at NIU 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−5.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:05CCU 4th & 6 at NIU 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:54CCU 4th & 11 at CCU 24, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−5.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:51NIU 4th & 9 at CCU 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−13.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:49NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.7%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:29CCU 4th & 4 at NIU 46, up 6
    Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:20NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:02NIU 4th & 1 at CCU 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−15.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−14.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:51NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:13CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:46CCU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:35NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:12NIU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:34CCU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:08NIU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:27CCU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:13NIU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:07CCU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    51.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:40CCU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5719% → 22%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.3%
Jay Ducker run for 9 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
81.2%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
80.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
80.9%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
80.6%
Clint Ratkovich run for 5 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+28
80.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 28 yds to the CCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
80.2%
Jay Ducker run for 9 yds to the CCaro 12Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+10
80.1%
Jay Ducker run for 10 yds to the CCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
79.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Billy Dozier for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 5Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.5%
Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the CCaro 5Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 5 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3279% → 79%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 9 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
78.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 7 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
78.2%
Braydon Bennett run for 15 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
78.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+7
77.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 7 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
77.9%
Reese White run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+6
77.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 6 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+8
77.2%
Grayson McCall run for 8 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
77.4%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
77.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the NoIll 13Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
79.1%
Braydon Bennett run for 13 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:2322% → 25%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
77.7%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 5
OWN 48
-1
77.6%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+9
77.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Fabian McCray for 9 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
76.9%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+14
76.6%
Jay Ducker run for 14 yds to the CCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
75.5%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
75.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
75.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
75.5%
John Richardson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 2:4576% → 78%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
75.7%
Shermari Jones run for 8 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+1
76.3%
Shermari Jones run for 1 yd to the CCaro 30Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+7
75.8%
Shermari Jones run for 7 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.6%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Kameron BrownSimilar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+18
75.4%
Braydon Bennett run for 18 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
76.3%
Shermari Jones run for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
76.2%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
76.0%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (Grayson McCall) to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+5
75.1%
Grayson McCall run for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+40
78.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 40 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:5822% → 31%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
77.7%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+12
76.8%
Antario Brown run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
50
0
76.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
50
+34
76.5%
Antario Brown run for 34 yds to the CCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
75.6%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jerrod Clark) to the CCaro 11Similar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 5
OPP 11
-2
75.4%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 13 Jay Ducker fumbled, recovered by NoIll Jay DuckerSimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
75.2%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the CCaro 9Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+4
75.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
74.4%
Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the CCaro 2Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.2%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 2:1771% → 74%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
70.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for no gain to the CCaro 32Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
70.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 7 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+16
71.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 16 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+35
71.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 35 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
73.4%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
73.3%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
72.1%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 5:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
73.5%
Massimo Biscardi 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:0630% → 50%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
69.9%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
69.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Mohamed ToureSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-1
70.7%
Clint Ratkovich run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+14
71.5%
Ference, Matt punt 37 yards to the COASTALCAR30, fair catch by Heiligh, Jaivon, PENALTY COASTALCAR roughing the kicker (Bedgood, Aaron) 14 yards to the NORTHERNIL47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL.Similar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
68.1%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the COASTALCAR 49 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the CCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
66.0%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 9 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
65.4%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the CCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
64.7%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the CCaro 19Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+6
63.1%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the CCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
62.8%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CCaro 12Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
49.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 12 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 1:0355% → 62%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
55.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 5 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+11
56.3%
Grayson McCall run for 11 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
57.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 10 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
58.2%
Grayson McCall sacked by Jaden Dolphin for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+8
55.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+10
57.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 10 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
59.1%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-5
59.1%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jaivon Heiligh) to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
58.8%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Aaron BedgoodSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+5
56.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 5 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
61.8%
Massimo Biscardi 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
59.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1162% → 77%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 7 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+27
62.4%
Shermari Jones run for 27 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
63.4%
Shermari Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+10
63.1%
Grayson McCall run for 10 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
76.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 27 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:0727% → 49%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
72.7%
Jay Ducker run for 12 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
71.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 9 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+1
69.8%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+56
69.6%
Jay Ducker run for 56 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2858% → 75%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 15 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
75.1%
Braydon Bennett run for 60 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:5729% → 57%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
71.3%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
70.0%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
68.7%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+15
68.1%
Antario Brown run for 15 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
67.4%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CCaro 36Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+1
67.1%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CCaro 35Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+10
67.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 10 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
64.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the CCaro 19Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-5
64.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 24Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+17
64.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 17 yds to the CCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
42.7%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0152% → 47%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.5%
Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the CCaro 26Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
50.8%
Braydon Bennett run for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 21Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+3
48.3%
Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
46.7%
Charles Ouverson punt for 46 yds , Cole Tucker returns for no gain to the NoIll 24 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jaivon Heiligh) to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:3760% → 74%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
40.1%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+17
40.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 17 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
38.4%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
37.9%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
36.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
34.5%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 31Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
34.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+4
36.1%
Clint Ratkovich run for 4 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
25.9%
John Richardson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:3231% → 61%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
31.0%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Braydon BennettSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
27.8%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
27.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 8 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
29.6%
Shermari Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 44Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+16
26.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 16 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
60.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5654% → 56%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.2%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
45.4%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 7 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
42.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
44.5%
Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18TD
1 play · 34 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
90.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 34 yds for a TD (Grayson McCall pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19FUMBLE
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:5916% → 14%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
83.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 9 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+4
82.3%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
83.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
84.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+16
86.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 16 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-9
80.9%
Trayvon Rudolph sacked by Lance Boykin for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 19
OWN 38
+5
85.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 5 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+8
86.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 17 yds to the CCaro 48 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, forced by Silas Kelly, recovered by CCaro Dre Pinckney , return for 8 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5092% → 94%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
91.9%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+4
94.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 4 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+9
94.2%
Grayson McCall run for 9 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
94.1%
Charles Ouverson punt for 33 yds, downed at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
16 plays · 83 yds · 2:238% → 14%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
92.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+11
92.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 11 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
91.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 6 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+4
87.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tristen TewesSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
89.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 6 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
88.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+23
90.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 23 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
86.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 5 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
81.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Miles JoinerSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+15
86.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jay Ducker for 15 yds to the CCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
80.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 7 yds to the CCaro 10Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
79.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 2 yds to the CCaro 8Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
83.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+4
86.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 4 yds to the CCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:40
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 34 yds for a TD (Grayson McCall pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion)
+46
TD · Q4 9:07
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+34.4
TD · Q3 3:13
Antario Brown run for 7 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)
-21.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com