Northern Illinois

Profile vs. FBS, 2015

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0732nd
  Defense−0.0183rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.8%35th
  Defense42.7%50th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1840th
  Defense+1.0198th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense0.0024th
  Defense−0.0280th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1754th
  Defense+0.0478th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.9%44th
  Defense48.1%41st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.8%30th
  Defense31.2%68th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7329th
  Defense2.9238th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.8%35th
  Defense15.3%10th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.1%40th
  Defense2.5%79th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Northern Illinois allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UNLV
2. W
   MUR
3. L
   OSU
4. L
   BC
5. L
   CMU
6. W
   BALL
7. W
   M-OH
8. W
   EMU
9. W
   TOL
10. W
    BUF
11. W
    WMU
12. L
    OHIO
13. L
    BGSU
14. L
    BOIS

Bars above the line: better than expected for Northern Illinois.

Players, 2015

1. Drew HareQB255 plays · +0.236 pts/play · 81st of 205 QBs
   1.13WAR0.72 to 1.52
2. Joel Bouagnon?221 plays · +0.131 pts/play
   0.54WAR0.36 to 0.73
3. Ryan GrahamQB148 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 132nd of 205 QBs
   0.53WAR0.24 to 0.82
4. Kenny GolladayWR94 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 22nd of 411 WRs
   0.32WAR0.13 to 0.49
5. Jordan Huff?59 plays · +0.193 pts/play
   0.21WAR0.16 to 0.26
6. Aregeros TurnerWR60 plays · +0.116 pts/play · 146th of 411 WRs
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.20
7. Christian HaganPK13 plays · +0.351 pts/play · 85th of 115 kickers
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.13
8. Tommylee LewisWR51 plays · +0.063 pts/play · 302nd of 411 WRs
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Northern Illinois's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2015

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  38138197th of 128Roster talent: 381, 97th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  12412489th of 128Recruiting: 124, 89th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  72%72%47th of 127Returning production: 72%, 47th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −0.9−0.982nd of 128SP+ rating: −0.9, 82nd of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Northern Illinois's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at BCQ3 7:40 4th & 1 at BC 12, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
2. at BCQ4 2:20 4th & 10 at BC 40, down 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−3.0 pts
3. at BUFQ4 5:00 4th & 2 at NIU 47, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
4. at TOLQ2 3:07 4th & 3 at TOL 3, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
5. vs BGSUQ4 9:01 4th & 9 at BGSU 11, down 20Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−1.0 pts
6. at TOLQ3 8:24 4th & 3 at NIU 30, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. at BUFQ4 7:54 4th & 1 at NIU 33, up 15Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at BUFQ2 12:41 4th & 3 at BUF 43, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

73rd of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Northern Illinois's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UNLV
2. W

   MUR
3. L

   OSU
4. L

   BC
5. L

   CMU
6. W

   BALL
7. W

   M-OH
8. W

   EMU
9. W

   TOL
10. W

    BUF
11. W

    WMU
12. L

    OHIO
13. L

    BGSU
14. L

    BOIS

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at Northern Illinois's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.07
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.01
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.27

Game by game

• UNLVW 38-30 vs UNLV86% → 96%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +19, Possession & field position +1
• MURW 57-26 vs MUR98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• OSUL 13-20 at OSU2% → 3%Before kickoff −48 · On the field +1: Scoreboard −7, Timeouts −1
• BCL 14-17 at BC40% → 12%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −2
• CMUL 19-29 at CMU56% → 2%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −40, Timeouts −2
• BALLW 59-41 vs BALL78% → 99%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +1
• M-OHW 45-12 at M-OH86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +20
• EMUW 49-21 vs EMU95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +7
• TOLW 32-27 at TOL29% → 95%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +55, Clock +3
• BUFW 41-30 at BUF62% → 97%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +45, Clock +3
• WMUW 27-19 vs WMU55% → 97%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +3
• OHIOL 21-26 vs OHIO80% → 3%Before kickoff +30 · On the field −77: Scoreboard −59, Clock −4
• BGSUL 14-34 vs BGSU27% → 0%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −34, Clock −2
• BOISL 7-55 vs BOIS32% → 0%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −37, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Northern Illinois's side.

Closest call

NIU 55-14 AKR (2023) - Northern Illinois dropped to a 4.2% win probability before pulling it out.