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NIU

Northern Illinois 41 at Buffalo 30

BUF
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2015 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:54 · Jacob Ambrose punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the BUFFALO 28 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Personal Foul (Tifonte Hunt) to the Buff 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Home team on offense−36.7Score differential−18.4Garbage-time factor−10.2Pregame prior−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:25: Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 16 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +13.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:44: Jordan Johnson run for 47 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT BLOCKED) — BUF win probability +11.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:27: Ryan Graham pass intercepted for a TD Cameron Lewis return for 68 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +12.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:46: Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 68 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +12.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:46: Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 35 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +13.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:05BUF 4th & 2 at NIU 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:27BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:10NIU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:30BUF 4th & 7 at NIU 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:22BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 25, down 11
    Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:28NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:22NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.1%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:41NIU 4th & 3 at BUF 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:24BUF 4th & 10 at NIU 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:00BUF 4th & 4 at NIU 24, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:25NIU 4th & 1 at BUF 20, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−2.0
    75% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−8.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:52NIU 4th & 6 at BUF 6, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−6.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:27NIU 4th & 3 at BUF 37, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−1.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:17BUF 4th & 4 at NIU 24, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−5.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:54NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 33, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:00NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 47, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:14BUF 4th & 24 at BUF 3, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−2.1
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:50NIU 4th & 5 at BUF 30, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 4NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:03NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:21NIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:25NIU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:10NIU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:25BUF Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:44BUF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:27BUF Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:46NIU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:46BUF Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%−2.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:4538% → 40%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
38.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Brandon SmileySimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
38.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q1 14:33
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+12
38.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 12 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+40
38.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 40 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
39.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+6
39.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-1
39.5%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+26
39.8%
Adam Mitcheson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0560% → 59%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
39.8%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
40.1%
Kenny Golladay run for 4 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+4
40.3%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
40.6%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1840% → 41%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
40.3%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+4
40.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
40.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 8
OWN 35
-5
40.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (Kyril Threats) to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+6
40.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 35 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:1759% → 61%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
40.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
40.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
40.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 1
50
+5
41.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
41.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
41.2%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+7
41.4%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
41.1%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+11
41.1%
Jordan Huff run for 11 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
41.2%
Ryan Graham run for 1 yd to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
38.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 15 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:2540% → 41%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
39.9%
Licata, Joe pass incomplete to Willoughby, Ron, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding (Fleming, Ladell) 10 yards to the BUFFALO45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
40.7%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+30
40.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 30 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
41.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
41.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
41.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
40.5%
Adam Mitcheson 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:0460% → 64%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
40.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
40.0%
Ryan Graham run for 8 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
39.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+58
35.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 58 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4836% → 35%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
36.0%
Joe Licata run for 1 yd to the Buff 18Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+3
35.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 3 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-10
35.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (John Kling) to the Buff 11Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+14
34.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Brandon Smiley for 14 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+5
34.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 40 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5065% → 64%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.8%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Desroy MaxwellSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
34.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 1 yd to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
35.1%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
35.6%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
35.3%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Shawun Lurry return for no gain to the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:3566% → 67%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
34.4%
Aregeros Turner run for 7 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
34.4%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
34.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
50
+3
33.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
33.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+4
32.8%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
32.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for a loss of 7 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3235% → 35%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
50
+2
34.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
34.9%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Marlon Moore return for no gain to the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:2567% → 80%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
32.9%
Aregeros Turner run for 11 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
32.5%
Ryan Graham run for 8 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+6
31.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
31.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 5 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+10
31.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 10 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
31.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 9 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+20
31.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 20 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
31.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, Substitution Infraction (4 Yards) to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
30.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
30.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
30.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:4625% → 23%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
24.9%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
24.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 7 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+21
24.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 21 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
25.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 17 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
25.6%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+15
25.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 15 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
25.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
24.5%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
23.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for no gain to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
22.9%
Adam Mitcheson 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:0182% → 95%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
17.8%
Aregeros Turner run for 7 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+11
17.6%
Jordan Huff run for 11 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
17.2%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+7
17.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 7 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
16.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 37 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
14.7%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+9
14.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 9 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
13.6%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
13.4%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.0%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:5794% → 96%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
6.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+13
5.8%
Chad Beebe run for 13 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
5.2%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 6
50
+2
5.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+12
5.1%
Ryan Graham run for 12 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
4.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+1
4.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-2
4.1%
Ryan Graham sacked by Randy Anyanwu for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 33 Ryan Graham fumbled, forced by Randy Anyanwu, recovered by Buff Okezie Alozie , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:254% → 16%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
3.6%
Jacob Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+13
3.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 13 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
3.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 5 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
2.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 4 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
2.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
2.7%
Licata, Joe pass incomplete to Willoughby, Ron, PENALTY NORTHERNIL pass interference (Logan, Paris) 12 yards to the NORTHERNIL30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
2.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
2.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
2.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+8
2.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 8 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
15.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 16 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:0890% → 96%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
10.5%
Ryan Graham run for 7 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+4
10.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 4 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
9.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 6 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+1
9.1%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
9.2%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+10
9.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 10 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
8.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
8.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
8.0%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+22
4.0%
Christian Hagan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 1:596% → 17%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
5.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
5.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 6 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+5
5.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Boomer Mays) to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
5.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 13 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
5.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+47
16.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 47 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20INT TD
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:0888% → 80%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
11.9%
Aregeros Turner run for 11 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
11.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+6
11.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 6 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+7
9.2%
Ryan Graham run for 7 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
8.5%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
8.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 7 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
8.5%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
8.1%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
8.1%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+68
20.5%
Ryan Graham pass intercepted for a TD Cameron Lewis return for 68 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:2980% → 93%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
20.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+68
7.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 68 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:2313% → 9%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
12.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
12.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 9 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
13.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
13.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 19 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
12.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
10.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 5 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+1
10.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 4
OPP 24
0
8.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1195% → 95%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
5.0%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+4
5.0%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
5.0%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+24
4.7%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the BUFFALO 28 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Personal Foul (Tifonte Hunt) to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 0:597% → 21%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
7.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 9 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+6
7.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 6 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
7.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
8.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+35
21.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 35 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3588% → 90%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
11.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 11 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
9.8%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
10.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+1
10.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
10.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:3614% → 10%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
13.9%
Joe Licata sacked by Perez Ford for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+10
13.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 10 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 19
-5
12.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (Tyler O'Henly) to the Buff 14Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 13
OWN 14
-11
12.7%
Joe Licata sacked by Ben Compton for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 24
OWN 3
0
10.2%
Tyler Grassman punt for 32 yds, downed at the Buff 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27FG
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1794% → 96%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
5.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
4.8%
Ryan Graham run for no gain to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+2
5.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
3.6%
Christian Hagan 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:044% → 3%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
3.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
3.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 8 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
3.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 3 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
3.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 11 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
3.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+6
3.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 6 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
3.4%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Brandon Mayes return for 5 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:5598% → 97%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-1
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-1
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:25
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 16 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+13.5
TD · Q4 6:46
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 35 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+13
TD · Q4 12:46
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 68 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com