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NIU

Northern Illinois 32 at Toledo 27

TOL
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2015 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:47 · Jacob Ambrose punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+17.3Home team on offense+1.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:23: Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +14.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 2:34: Christian Hagan 52 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +7.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:45: Jameson Vest 39 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +9.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:27: Kenny Golladay 7 Yd pass from Ryan Graham (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — NIU win probability +24.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:59: Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +44.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 10NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:10TOL 4th & 5 at NIU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:12NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:47NIU 4th & 20 at NIU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:57TOL 4th & 5 at NIU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:39NIU 4th & 9 at TOL 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:00TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 13, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:39TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:42NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:23TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:07NIU 4th & 3 at TOL 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−6.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00NIU 4th & 11 at TOL 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:11TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 37, up 1
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:49NIU 4th & 14 at TOL 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:35TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 14, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:24NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 30, down 1
    Close callPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:23TOL 4th & 1 at NIU 1, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−4.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−17.3
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:34NIU 4th & 8 at TOL 35, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.5%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:45TOL 4th & 1 at NIU 21, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%−3.9
    74% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−16.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:19TOL 4th & 9 at NIU 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−5.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:05TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:31NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:04TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:23TOL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:27NIU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    35.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:59NIU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:5929% → 29%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
70.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-4
70.7%
Tommylee Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+17
70.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 17 yds Kenny Golladay fumbled, recovered by Toled Trevon MathisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2071% → 71%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
70.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
70.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
70.8%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
70.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:5430% → 30%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
70.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Tommylee LewisSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
70.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+4
70.3%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+6
70.3%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
70.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
70.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Trevon MathisSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
70.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Desroy MaxwellSimilar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
70.3%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:5570% → 72%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
70.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
70.3%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
70.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+19
69.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 19 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
70.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael Roberts, broken up by Marlon Moore for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Albert Smalls) to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
70.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Storm Norton) to the NoIll 35Similar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+13
70.4%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+6
70.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 6 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
70.6%
Terry Swanson run for 10 yds to the NoIll 6 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alonzo Russell) to the NoIll 16Similar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
70.6%
Phillip Ely sacked by Bobby Jones IV for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+6
70.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
72.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 11 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:2428% → 31%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
71.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 1 yd to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+67
69.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 67 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:1669% → 73%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
69.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Terry Swanson for 5 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+58
69.3%
Terry Swanson run for 58 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
70.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
70.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
72.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 1:0828% → 27%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
71.9%
Tommylee Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
72.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 4 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Shane Wimann) to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
72.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by DeJuan RogersSimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
72.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
72.7%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:4873% → 73%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
50
0
73.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 10
50
+7
72.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+15
72.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 15 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
73.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
73.3%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+4
73.0%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+39
73.1%
Jameson Vest 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:1628% → 29%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-32
71.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 32 yards to the NoIll 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoIllSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 42
OWN 27
+3
73.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 3 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 39
OWN 30
+50
73.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 50 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
71.1%
Drew Hare sacked by Josh Teachey for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+3
71.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 3 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
71.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
71.4%
Christian Hagan 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:2972% → 73%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
72.0%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+11
72.5%
Terry Swanson run for 11 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
72.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 9 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
73.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
73.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
73.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoIll Jawuan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:2529% → 30%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
71.0%
Drew Hare run for 5 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
70.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
70.8%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
70.2%
Drew Hare pass intercepted Trevon Mathis return for no gain to the Toled 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:3672% → 72%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
72.1%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 12Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+1
72.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 1 yd to the Toled 13Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
71.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+18
71.0%
Nick Ellis run for 18 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
72.4%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
72.8%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
72.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 9:39
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
71.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4827% → 27%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
72.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+11
72.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 11 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
72.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
72.9%
Drew Hare run for 9 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
72.1%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
72.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
72.4%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+6
73.5%
Jordan Huff run for 6 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 6
OWN 44
-3
73.4%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 48 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5773% → 73%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
73.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+2
72.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
73.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
73.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5330% → 34%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
69.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+8
69.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
69.7%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 11Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
70.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
70.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
66.3%
Christian Hagan 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:4671% → 70%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
70.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Darryl RichardsSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+7
70.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Terry Swanson for 7 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+4
69.4%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
70.4%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Brandon Mayes return for 15 yds to the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17END OF HALF
10 plays · 9 yds · 2:0536% → 35%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
63.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
63.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+1
64.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-13
63.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the Toled 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoIll Ryan GrahamSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 23
OPP 24
+10
66.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 10 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+2
68.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+29
65.3%
Christian Hagan 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2969% → 67%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
68.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-2
69.8%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+4
67.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 4 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
67.4%
Nick Ellis punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:1633% → 32%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+38
66.9%
Ryan Graham run for 38 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
63.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-8
63.4%
Ryan Graham sacked by Allen Covington for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
66.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
67.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5567% → 65%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
67.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-3
67.2%
Phillip Ely sacked by Perez Ford for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 12 Phillip Ely fumbled, recovered by ToledSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+2
65.8%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
65.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0133% → 32%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
66.7%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
66.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+8
68.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 8 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
68.4%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:5768% → 84%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+37
67.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 37 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
71.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+15
71.6%
Ely, Phillip pass incomplete to Russell, Alonzo, PENALTY NORTHERNIL pass interference (Logan, Paris) 15 yards to the NORTHERNIL14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
71.6%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-1
71.6%
Phillip Ely run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 8Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+6
69.9%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the NoIll 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
71.3%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the NoIll 2Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
71.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.5%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:2121% → 25%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
78.6%
Ryan Graham run for 5 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+18
77.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 18 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
77.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
77.8%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
79.6%
Ryan Graham run for no gain to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+52
74.8%
Christian Hagan 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:4074% → 87%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
74.4%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
74.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Terry Swanson for 5 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+11
75.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 11 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
77.1%
Phillip Ely run for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+21
77.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 21 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
78.1%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
78.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
77.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+39
86.7%
Jameson Vest 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:0317% → 44%
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+16
83.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 16 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
83.5%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
81.1%
Jordan Huff run for 11 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
81.2%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+2
79.9%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+13
81.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 13 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
79.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+4
80.1%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-2
81.8%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 19Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+8
85.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
81.0%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
56.1%
Kenny Golladay 7 Yd pass from Ryan Graham (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26MISSED FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 3:4168% → 72%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
67.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
70.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+6
69.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
70.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
69.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+14
67.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 14 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
71.8%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
70.9%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+12
68.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 12 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
77.0%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
76.9%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
75.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
71.5%
Jameson Vest 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:1137% → 94%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.2%
Ryan Graham run for no gain to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
64.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 3 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-5
66.9%
Graham, Ryan pass complete to Turner, Aregeros for 8 yards to the NORTHERNIL41, PENALTY NORTHERNIL illegal formation 5 yards to the NORTHERNIL28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+13
69.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 13 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+44
62.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 44 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
56.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
56.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 10 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
55.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the Toled 2Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
20.8%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Boomer Mays return for no gain to the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2094% → 95%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
6.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
4.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-10
4.6%
Bouagnon, Joel rush for 6 yards to the TOLEDO11, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 16
OPP 27
-1
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:59
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
-44.2
TD · Q4 9:27
Kenny Golladay 7 Yd pass from Ryan Graham (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-24.9
TD · Q3 4:23
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com