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NIU

Northern Illinois 19 at Central Michigan 29

CMU
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:15 · Jacob Ambrose punt for a loss of 3 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Home team on offense−8.1Garbage-time factor−2.4Pregame prior−3.4Score differential−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:34: Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 9 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +13.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:43: Brian Eavey 28 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +6.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:27: Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +26.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:04: Jahray Hayes 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — CMU win probability +10.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:46: Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NIU win probability +6.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9NIU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 7:17NIU 4th & 9 at CMU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−1.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:21CMU 4th & 4 at NIU 26, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00NIU 4th & 14 at CMU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:52NIU 4th & 11 at CMU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:37CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 8, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:58NIU 4th & 2 at CMU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−1.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:23NIU 4th & 1 at CMU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−7.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:26CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:15NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:39NIU 4th & 8 at CMU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−9.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:43CMU 4th & 10 at NIU 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−11.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:52NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:31CMU 4th & 2 at NIU 23, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%−1.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−7.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:31NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 44, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.2%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:46NIU 4th & 3 at CMU 3, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−4.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:46CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:43NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:43NIU 4th & 5 at CMU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−1.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:57CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:45CMU 4th & 5 at NIU 30, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−0.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:40NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:17NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:34CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:27CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:04CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:46NIU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.0%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1INT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
43.6%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+1
43.6%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+12
43.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 12 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
43.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 6 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-5
43.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-1
43.6%
Martez Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+18
43.6%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Shawun Lurry return for 18 yds to the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4956% → 58%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
44.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 5 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
44.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete, broken up by Blake SerpaSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+15
44.2%
Drew Hare run for 15 yds to the CMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
44.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the CMich 1Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the CMich 1Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
43.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 12 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
43.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jahray HayesSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
43.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony RiceSimilar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+40
42.9%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 34 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 40 yds to the CMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:5758% → 58%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
42.0%
Tommylee Lewis run for 14 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
41.9%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
41.9%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
42.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+32
41.9%
Christian Hagan 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:5643% → 43%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
42.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 9 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+7
42.7%
Jahray Hayes run for 7 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
42.9%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete, PENALTY NIU pass interference (LOGAN, Paris) 14 yards to the NIU42, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
43.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+4
43.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+2
43.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
43.5%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
43.5%
Martez Walker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
43.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
42.7%
Brian Eavey 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:2159% → 59%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
41.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+9
40.9%
Drew Hare run for 9 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
40.9%
Drew Hare run for 8 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-10
40.7%
BOUAGNON, Joel rush for no gain to the CMU44 (HAMILTON, Tim), PENALTY NIU holding 10 yards to the NIU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
41.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Joel BouagnonSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+27
41.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 27 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
40.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-5
40.6%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 30 Drew Hare fumbled, recovered by NoIll Drew HareSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 13
OPP 30
-1
41.1%
Tommylee Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+48
41.3%
Christian Hagan 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
41.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 12 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
42.3%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+6
41.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 6 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
41.5%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
40.9%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 43 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
41.4%
Drew Hare run for 5 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
40.8%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+10
41.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 10 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
40.6%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
40.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
40.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Christian Blake for 8 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
40.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+13
39.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 13 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-7
39.6%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 43 Drew Hare fumbled, recovered by NoIll Drew HareSimilar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 17
OPP 43
+6
40.2%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
39.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
41.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 36 yds, downed at the CMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
40.3%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+4
40.2%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 3
OWN 8
0
39.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey Willis, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
39.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 46 yds · 1:4763% → 62%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
37.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
36.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
37.1%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+16
36.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 16 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
35.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 9 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+1
35.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
35.8%
Drew Hare run for 11 yds to the CMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
35.8%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the CMich 2Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
35.8%
Jordan Huff run for no gain to the CMich 2Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
36.2%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the CMich 1Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
37.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:1738% → 37%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
37.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
37.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+5
36.4%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+52
37.4%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 52 yds , Chad Beebe returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
37.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+7
37.9%
Drew Hare run for 7 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+3
36.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-5
37.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
38.2%
Jacob Ambrose punt for a loss of 3 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:3741% → 42%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
40.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse Kroll, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
40.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+12
39.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 12 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
43.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+43
42.0%
Brian Eavey 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
34.4%
HARE, Drew rush for 22 yards to the NIU47, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NIU holding (MAXWELL, Desroy) 10 yards to the NIU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
34.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Tommylee LewisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+1
35.1%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the NoIll 16 Drew Hare fumbled, recovered by CMich Tyree WallerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:0241% → 55%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
41.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
41.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
54.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 9 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:4556% → 57%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
44.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+8
43.3%
Drew Hare run for 8 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
43.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+8
43.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
43.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
43.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-5
44.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 9Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
44.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Josh CoxSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
43.1%
Christian Hagan 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:5644% → 54%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
44.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 18 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Ben McCordSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
47.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jahray HayesSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+21
44.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 21 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
49.5%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
49.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+19
47.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 19 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
49.5%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
49.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Joe BacciSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-3
47.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 11Similar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
54.1%
Brian Eavey 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.4%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
48.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
49.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 7 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-8
49.5%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 23 Drew Hare fumbled, recovered by CMich Tim HamiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
75.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.0%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
68.6%
Ryan Graham pass intercepted TEAM return for no gain to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 1:1576% → 87%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
76.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 22 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
76.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.9%
Jahray Hayes 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
83.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
83.6%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
83.7%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
84.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 34 yds, downed at the CMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:1888% → 93%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
87.8%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+11
87.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for 11 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
87.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+5
87.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
87.9%
Jay Roberson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
91.2%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+1
90.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the NoIll 23Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+41
92.6%
Brian Eavey 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:4510% → 16%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
90.0%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-6
89.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+11
90.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 11 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+21
90.2%
Jordan Huff run for 21 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.6%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
88.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Christian Blake, broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+11
89.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 11 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
87.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 9 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+6
87.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
87.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
87.9%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
89.0%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the CMich 3Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.6%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
87.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
87.5%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
86.9%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
88.1%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
87.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
87.7%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+14
88.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 14 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
86.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
86.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 5 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
87.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
87.9%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the CMich 42 Drew Hare fumbled, forced by Kavon Frazier,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1893% → 94%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
92.6%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+2
93.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+1
94.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 1 yd to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
93.8%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 25 yds , Chad Beebe returns for no gain to the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
95.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 8 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+5
94.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 5 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.7%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros Turner, broken up by Josh CoxSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-7
94.8%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 35 Drew Hare fumbled, recovered by CMich Blake SerpaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1296% → 97%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
95.8%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+1
95.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+2
95.6%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+1
97.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 30DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.9%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
97.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
97.3%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:3898% → 98%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:27
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+26.4
TD · Q3 13:34
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 9 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q3 4:04
Jahray Hayes 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com