Try the model
NIU

Northern Illinois 13 at Ohio State 20

OSU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Ohio Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:56 · Jacob Ambrose punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+23.0Home team on offense+3.5Garbage-time factor+0.4Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Time remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:21: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 23 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK) — OSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:27: Jack Willoughby 24 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:44: Drew Hare pass intercepted for a TD Darron Lee return for 41 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK) — OSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:46: Christian Hagan 31 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +4.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:40: Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29 — NIU win probability +3.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10NIU made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 10:08OSU 4th & 1 at NIU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:21OSU 4th & 6 at NIU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:57NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:56OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 21, down 4
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:31NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:20NIU 4th & 2 at OSU 21, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:02OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:17NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:20NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:59OSU 4th & 4 at NIU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:25NIU 4th & 1 at OSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:04NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:27OSU 4th & 3 at NIU 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.7%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−7.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:58NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:17OSU 4th & 16 at OSU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:56NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:49NIU 4th & 15 at OSU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:25OSU 4th & 22 at OSU 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:46NIU 4th & 11 at OSU 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−3.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:00OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 44, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−1.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:24NIU 4th & 16 at NIU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:52NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 25, down 7
    Close callPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%−0.7
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:34OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:11NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:43NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:21OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:44OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1INT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0498% → 98%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
97.8%
Samuel, Curtis rush left for 12 yards to the OHIOST47, PENALTY OHIOST illegal motion (Campbell, Parris) 5 yards to the OHIOST30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
97.7%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
97.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the OhSt 30Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+33
97.6%
Cardale Jones pass intercepted Shawun Lurry return for 33 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:472% → 3%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
97.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+15
97.5%
Drew Hare run for 15 yds to the OhSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.4%
Aregeros Turner run for 5 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2897% → 97%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
97.4%
Curtis Samuel run for 12 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 7
50
+4
97.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
97.0%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Nick Vannett for 2 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
96.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42 Ezekiel Elliott fumbled, forced by Boomer Mays, recovered by NoIll Sean FolliardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:293% → 3%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
96.8%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-10
96.7%
Hare, Drew pass right swing incomplete to Lewis, Tommylee thrown to the NORTHERNIL41, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding (Wimann, Shane) 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+18
96.7%
Drew Hare pass intercepted Eli Apple return for 8 yds to the NoIll 43 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Raekwon McMillan) to the NoIll 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:3997% → 96%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
96.7%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Nick Vannett for 5 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
96.6%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+25
96.6%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 25 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
96.4%
Braxton Miller pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 3 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
96.3%
Braxton Miller run for 1 yd to the NoIll 14 Braxton Miller fumbled, recovered by OhSt Braxton MillerSimilar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
96.1%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
96.3%
Jack Willoughby 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:034% → 4%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.1%
Aregeros Turner run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
96.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
95.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
95.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
95.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Shawun LurrySimilar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
95.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Tommylee LewisSimilar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
95.7%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3496% → 95%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
95.5%
Cardale Jones run for 2 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+3
95.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 17Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+4
95.1%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 4 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
94.8%
Cameron Johnston punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:095% → 5%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
94.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
94.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
94.6%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
94.7%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 56 yds, downed at the OhSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:0894% → 94%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
94.4%
Cardale Jones run for 9 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 18
-4
94.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the OhSt 14Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+4
94.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+7
94.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.0%
Cardale Jones pass intercepted Shawun Lurry return for 12 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:257% → 8%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
93.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 1 yd to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+4
93.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+3
93.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 3 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
92.0%
Christian Hagan 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5892% → 91%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
92.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 1 yd to the OhSt 36Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
92.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
91.8%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
91.4%
Cameron Johnston punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:289% → 9%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
91.3%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
91.0%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-1
90.8%
Drew Hare sacked by Sam Hubbard for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+26
90.7%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 44 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 26 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:3991% → 94%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
91.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 7 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+8
91.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
91.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
93.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 23 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14FUMBLE
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:408% → 10%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.9%
Aregeros Turner run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
91.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 3 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
91.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 5 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
91.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 3 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
90.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
90.4%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-8
90.5%
Jacob Ambrose run for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 37 Jacob Ambrose fumbled, recovered by NoIll Jacob AmbroseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0193% → 92%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
92.6%
Braxton Miller run for no gain to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
92.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
92.3%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Corey SmithSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
91.9%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:2010% → 13%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
90.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
89.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
88.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
88.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 7 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
87.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
87.0%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the OhSt 49Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
86.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
89.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2613% → 14%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.0%
Tommylee Lewis run for no gain to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+17
86.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 17 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
85.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
84.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+1
84.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 2
OWN 45
-5
85.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Renard Cheren) to the NoIll 39Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
86.2%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:3087% → 88%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
86.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 15 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
86.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+8
86.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 8 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
87.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 13 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
87.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 16 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
87.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+3
87.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
87.6%
Curtis Samuel run for 5 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
87.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Corey Smith, broken up by Brandon MayesSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+2
86.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
88.0%
Jack Willoughby 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0214% → 13%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
86.3%
Aregeros Turner run for 1 yd to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
86.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+1
86.8%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
87.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 49 yds, downed at the OhSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:2887% → 84%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
86.6%
Braxton Miller run for 8 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
87.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
86.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 7 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+7
87.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
87.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-5
87.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Pat Elflein) to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-2
86.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
85.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Nick VannettSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 11
OPP 49
-5
84.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
83.5%
Cameron Johnston punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0416% → 15%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
84.0%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the NoIll 17Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+3
83.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 3 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
84.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Tommylee LewisSimilar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
85.4%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23INT
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:5085% → 86%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
85.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 1
50
+10
85.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 10 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
85.5%
J.T. Barrett pass intercepted Sean Folliard return for 19 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+41
90.9%
Drew Hare pass intercepted for a TD Darron Lee return for 41 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:499% → 8%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Tyvis PowellSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
91.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+15
92.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 15 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
91.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
91.0%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+6
90.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 6 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
90.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 2 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
90.1%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-7
90.4%
Drew Hare sacked by Adolphus Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 48Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
92.3%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:0592% → 91%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
92.3%
Braxton Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 21 Braxton Miller fumbled, recovered by OhSt Braxton MillerSimilar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 12
OWN 21
-10
92.1%
Barrett, J.T. rush over left end for 4 yards to the OHIOST25, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Price, Billy) 10 yards to the OHIOST11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 22
OWN 11
0
92.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin Marshall, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 22
OWN 11
0
91.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete, broken up by Ben ComptonSimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 22
OWN 11
0
91.0%
Cameron Johnston punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 3:1410% → 12%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
90.1%
Jordan Huff run for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
90.4%
Drew Hare run for 13 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
90.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 7 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+11
89.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 11 yds to the OhSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
90.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 26Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
90.3%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+13
91.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 13 yds to the OhSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
89.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the OhSt 7Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+3
89.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the OhSt 4Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-5
91.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Ryan Stendler) to the OhSt 9Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
91.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Gareon ConleySimilar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 6
OPP 9
-5
92.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Lincoln Howard) to the OhSt 14Similar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
88.5%
Christian Hagan 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3093% → 93%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
92.5%
Curtis Samuel run for 3 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
93.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
93.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 2 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
93.0%
Cameron Johnston punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:069% → 7%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
90.6%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-9
91.9%
Drew Hare sacked by Tyquan Lewis for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 14Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
92.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
93.1%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 30FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:1095% → 96%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
95.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 12 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Holding (Renard Cheren) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
96.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 8 yds Curtis Samuel fumbled, forced by Marlon Moore, recovered by NoIll Bobby Jones IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:488% → 7%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
91.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, broken up by Joshua PerrySimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-4
92.2%
Drew Hare sacked by Sam Hubbard for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5695% → 96%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
95.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+2
95.3%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
96.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 37Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
95.5%
Cameron Johnston punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 33DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:177% → 6%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.1%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
93.3%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Tommylee Lewis, broken up by Vonn BellSimilar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
93.7%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
93.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Tommylee Lewis, broken up by Cam BurrowsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 34END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4597% → 97%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 21Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:44
Drew Hare pass intercepted for a TD Darron Lee return for 41 yds for a TD, (Jack Willoughby KICK)
+5.4
FG · Q4 7:46
Christian Hagan 31 yd FG GOOD
-4.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:40
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29
-3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com