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OHIO

Ohio 26 at Northern Illinois 21

NIU
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2015 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:44 · Jacob Ambrose punt for 21 yds, downed at the NoIll 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+20.7Home team on offense−1.7Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:52: Greg Windham pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 5 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:05: Josiah Yazdani 31 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +4.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:43: Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 27 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +14.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. FG · Q4 7:42: Josiah Yazdani 26 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +3.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:45: Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 11 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +16.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 12
  1. Q1 12:13OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:57NIU 4th & 6 at OHIO 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:36OHIO 4th & 3 at NIU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:19NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:57OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:58OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:03OHIO 4th & 3 at NIU 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:44NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:14NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:05OHIO 4th & 3 at NIU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−4.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:04NIU 4th & 21 at NIU 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−2.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:51NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:54OHIO 4th & 8 at NIU 37, up 13
    Close callPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−0.6
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:36OHIO 4th & 4 at NIU 46, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−3.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:35NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.3%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:56NIU 4th & 29 at NIU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−6.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:42OHIO 4th & 6 at NIU 9, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−12.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:47NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 11, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:07OHIO 4th & 3 at NIU 31, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%−2.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−4.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:42OHIO 4th & 8 at NIU 9, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−12.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:40NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 28, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%−1.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:19NIU 4th & 9 at OHIO 47, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%−0.5
    average punt
  24. Q4 4:15OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 49, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−1.8
    average punt
  25. Q4 1:45NIU 4th & 6 at OHIO 11, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:36OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:00NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:52OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:43NIU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:45NIU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:2220% → 21%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.9%
JD Sprague run for 2 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
79.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
79.7%
JD Sprague pass complete to Robbie Walker for 8 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
79.5%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Brendan CopeSimilar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
79.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
79.4%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
79.4%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:0379% → 79%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
79.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+14
79.2%
Aregeros Turner run for 14 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
79.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
79.3%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
79.0%
Ryan Graham run for 15 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
79.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-5
79.1%
Ryan Graham sacked by Quentin Poling for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 47Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+6
78.7%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the Ohio 41Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
78.5%
Ryan Graham punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:0622% → 25%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
78.2%
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 17 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
78.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 15 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
77.7%
JD Sprague run for 13 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
77.4%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Brendan CopeSimilar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
77.4%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to A.J. OuelletteSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-10
77.5%
OHIO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+17
77.6%
JD Sprague pass complete to Brendan Cope for 17 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+28
75.0%
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 28 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:5975% → 74%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
75.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 4 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
75.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
74.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 5 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
75.1%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+7
74.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 7 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
74.4%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
73.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Langston Provitt at the Ohio 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0826% → 26%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
73.7%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Brendan CopeSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+12
73.7%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 12 yds Sebastian Smith fumbled, forced by Marlon Moore, recovered by NoIll Cameron Clinton-EarlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:5375% → 78%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
75.1%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+10
74.9%
Jordan Huff run for 10 yds to the Ohio 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
74.8%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the Ohio 5Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.8%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3124% → 24%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
75.9%
JD Sprague sacked by Renard Cheren and William Lee for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 19Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+1
75.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 20Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+10
76.0%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 10 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+4
75.8%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 48 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 4 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5176% → 75%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.2%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
76.0%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
75.3%
Ryan Graham run for no gain to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
74.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 55 yds, downed at the Ohio 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4525% → 25%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
74.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the Ohio 19Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
74.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 21Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+6
75.0%
JD Sprague run for 6 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
75.1%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 50 yds , Chad Beebe returns for no gain to the NoIll 23 Chad Beebe fumbled, recovered by Ohio Jacob HaleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4128% → 29%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
72.2%
JD Sprague run for 11 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
72.0%
Brendan Cope pass incomplete to JD SpragueSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
71.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+1
72.2%
Greg Windham run for 1 yd to the NoIll 5Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
71.2%
Josiah Yazdani 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0172% → 70%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-7
72.1%
Ryan Graham sacked by Casey Sayles for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
70.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
70.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 21 yds, downed at the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:3731% → 40%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
69.2%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 8 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+14
68.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 14 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
68.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+7
68.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 7 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
66.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 5 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1961% → 58%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
60.6%
Aregeros Turner run for no gain to the NoIll 24Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-10
60.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 14Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+11
59.4%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 11 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
58.5%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
57.7%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 35 yds, downed at the Ohio 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:5542% → 55%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
58.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+13
57.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 13 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
56.8%
Greg Windham pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
56.3%
Greg Windham run for 6 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+1
55.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
54.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
53.7%
Greg Windham run for 5 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+5
54.0%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
51.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+1
51.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the NoIll 14Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
50.0%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Keith HeitzmanSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
45.1%
Josiah Yazdani 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -11 yds · 0:4149% → 48%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
48.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+1
47.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-11
46.4%
Ryan Graham sacked by Tarell Basham for a loss of 11 yards to the NoIll 17 Ryan Graham fumbled, forced by Tarell Basham, recovered by NoIll Desroy Maxwell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
48.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Langston Provitt at the NoIll 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
39.9%
Greg Windham pass intercepted, touchback. Marlon Moore return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5448% → 46%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 35Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
47.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
46.5%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
45.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:3859% → 62%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
41.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
40.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
39.7%
Greg Windham run for 3 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
38.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+8
37.5%
Greg Windham run for 8 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
37.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
35.7%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to A.J. OuelletteSimilar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
35.9%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Robbie WalkerSimilar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
37.6%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 0:5042% → 60%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
41.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 7 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+62
42.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 62 yds to the Ohio 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
45.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ohio 27Similar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+27
60.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 27 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4750% → 53%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
50.0%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
50.4%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 9 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
47.7%
Greg Windham run for 4 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
46.3%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
45.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
45.6%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Robbie WalkerSimilar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
47.3%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
14 plays · 20 yds · 4:2952% → 42%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
51.5%
Ryan Graham run for 1 yd to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+16
51.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 16 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
52.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 8 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
54.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
52.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
47.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
50.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 9 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-3
51.6%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 46Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+4
50.3%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
50.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 46Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+3
47.8%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 11
OPP 43
-18
46.6%
Ryan Graham sacked by Chad Moore for a loss of 18 yards to the NoIll 39 Ryan Graham fumbled, forced by Chad Moore, recovered by NoIll Jordan Huff , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 29
OWN 39
0
41.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Langston Provitt at the Ohio 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:5360% → 73%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
40.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 7 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
37.9%
Greg Windham run for 5 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
37.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 12 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
35.4%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
35.5%
Greg Windham run for 2 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+10
35.6%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 10 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
33.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Brendan Cope for 32 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
32.0%
OHIO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 23Similar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+6
31.1%
Greg Windham pass complete to Kawmae Sawyer for 6 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+2
29.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+6
29.4%
Greg Windham run for 6 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
27.4%
Josiah Yazdani 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4326% → 23%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
26.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 11Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
25.2%
Tommy Fiedler pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
23.7%
Tommy Fiedler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
22.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Langston Provitt at the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24FG
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:5378% → 89%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
21.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
18.8%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+3
19.4%
Greg Windham run for 3 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+48
17.8%
Josiah Yazdani 48 yd FG BLOCKED for a 1ST down blocked by Ben Compton for a 1ST down for a 1ST down Kent Berger return for 20 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
14.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
13.9%
Greg Windham run for no gain to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
14.2%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Keith HeitzmanSimilar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
10.9%
Josiah Yazdani 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 2:0612% → 10%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
11.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 11Similar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 20
OWN 11
0
11.2%
Tommy Fiedler pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 20
OWN 11
0
11.0%
Tommy Fiedler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 20
OWN 11
+17
10.3%
Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 17 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+5
10.8%
Tommy Fiedler run for 5 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
10.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+13
11.3%
Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 13 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
11.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the Ohio 47Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
11.4%
Tommy Fiedler pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
10.9%
Tommy Fiedler pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 9
OPP 47
+7
9.5%
Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 7 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5093% → 94%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
7.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 7 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
6.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 48Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
6.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 49Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
6.5%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 41 yds, downed at the NoIll 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 2:254% → 20%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
4.2%
Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 14 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
4.4%
Tommy Fiedler run for 10 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
3.6%
Tommy Fiedler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
3.5%
Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 3 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+12
3.4%
Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 12 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
3.6%
Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 13 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
3.8%
Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 23 yds to the Ohio 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
4.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 16Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
4.4%
Tommy Fiedler pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+5
3.1%
Tommy Fiedler run for 5 yds to the Ohio 11Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+11
20.0%
Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 11 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2593% → 97%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
7.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
5.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-1
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:45
Tommy Fiedler pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 11 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q3 9:43
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 27 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q2 7:52
Greg Windham pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 5 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com