Northern Illinois

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0932nd
  Defense−0.0191st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.1%41st
  Defense37.7%89th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2232nd
  Defense+1.1873rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1055th
  Defense+0.0464th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1131st
  Defense−0.0597th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.7%43rd
  Defense44.7%71st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.9%34th
  Defense25.1%93rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2577th
  Defense3.0641st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.7%92nd
  Defense14.9%21st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.5%60th
  Defense17.6%67th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Northern Illinois allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WIU
2. W
   ND
3. L
   BUF
4. L
   NCSU
5. W
   MASS
6. W
   BGSU
7. L
   TOL
8. L
   BALL
9. W
   WMU
10. W
    AKR
11. L
    M-OH
12. W
    CMU
13. W
    FRES

Bars above the line: better than expected for Northern Illinois.

Players, 2024

1. Ethan HamptonQB259 plays · +0.149 pts/play · 108th of 232 QBs
   0.72WAR0.25 to 1.21
2. Josh HolstQB143 plays · +0.202 pts/play · 128th of 232 QBs
   0.54WAR0.29 to 0.77
3. Antario BrownRB111 plays · +0.146 pts/play · 86th of 373 RBs
   0.30WAR0.22 to 0.39
4. Gavin WilliamsRB139 plays · +0.111 pts/play · 92nd of 373 RBs
   0.29WAR0.19 to 0.38
5. Telly Johnson Jr.RB94 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 123rd of 373 RBs
   0.24WAR0.17 to 0.30
6. Grayson BarnesTE32 plays · +0.265 pts/play · 11th of 221 TEs
   0.16WAR0.05 to 0.26
7. Cam ThompsonWR33 plays · +0.186 pts/play · 122nd of 452 WRs
   0.12WAR0.04 to 0.19
8. Kanon WoodillPK23 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 76th of 114 kickers
   0.07WAR−0.01 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Northern Illinois's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  437437124th of 131Roster talent: 437, 124th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14114191st of 131Recruiting: 141, 91st of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  60%60%41st of 130Returning production: 60%, 41st of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −3.5−3.582nd of 131SP+ rating: −3.5, 82nd of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Northern Illinois's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.21 of the 0.29 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at FRESQ4 3:02 4th & 1 at FRES 18, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−10.2 pts
2. at NDQ4 1:56 4th & 2 at ND 31, down 1Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−4.9 pts
3. at BGSUQ3 5:27 4th & 2 at NIU 40, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
4. vs CMUQ2 0:21 4th & 9 at CMU 25, up 5Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.3 pts
5. vs TOLQ3 11:53 4th & 4 at TOL 45, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. vs AKRQ4 10:20 4th & 5 at AKR 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
7. vs AKRQ4 10:20 4th & 5 at AKR 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
8. at NDQ3 2:45 4th & 7 at ND 41, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

68th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Northern Illinois's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WIU
2. W

   ND
3. L

   BUF
4. L

   NCSU
5. W

   MASS
6. W

   BGSU
7. L

   TOL
8. L

   BALL
9. W

   WMU
10. W

    AKR
11. L

    M-OH
12. W

    CMU
13. W

    FRES

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Northern Illinois's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.63
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock+0.11
• Timeouts+0.15
• Other+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.69

Game by game

• WIUW 54-15 vs WIU98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• NDW 16-14 at ND5% → 96%Before kickoff −45 · On the field +91: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +18
• BUFL 20-23 vs BUF85% → 27%Before kickoff +35 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts −21
• NCSUL 17-24 at NCSU33% → 13%Before kickoff −17 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −20, Clock −2
• MASSW 34-20 vs MASS85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +18, Timeouts +1
• BGSUW 17-7 at BGSU42% → 96%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• TOLL 6-13 vs TOL60% → 3%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• BALLL 23-25 at BALL83% → 16%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −67: Scoreboard −21, Timeouts −2
• WMUW 42-28 at WMU54% → 99%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +48, Clock +2
• AKRW 29-16 vs AKR86% → 99%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts +1
• M-OHL 9-20 at M-OH45% → 1%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −40, Possession & field position −1
• CMUW 24-16 vs CMU84% → 99%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +1
• FRESW 28-20 at FRES56% → 90%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +16

Points of win probability, from Northern Illinois's side.

Closest call

NIU 55-14 AKR (2023) - Northern Illinois dropped to a 4.2% win probability before pulling it out.