ARDLINETry the model
NI

Northern Illinois 28 at Fresno State 20

FS
2024 · Week 1 · Dec 23, 2024 · Albertsons Stadium
Win probability · FS
modelFS aheadNI aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSACKKEY PLAYTDTDTD
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Austin Bullock kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 15:00
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 30
+3.0
Q1 14:24
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 31
+0.3
Q1 13:57
Jayden Mandal run for 3 yds to the FRES 34
0.0
Q1 12:52
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (Mose Vavao) to the FRES 29
-0.3
Q1 12:39
Nick Verdugo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 33
0.0
Q1 12:27
Josh Holst pass intercepted Jayden Davis return for 26 yds to the NIU 25
-3.6
Q1 12:27
Jayden Mandal pass complete to Mac Dalena for 21 yds to the NIU 4 for a 1ST down
+6.4
Q1 11:53
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the NIU 1
0.0
Q1 11:29
Bryson Donelson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+12.7
Q1 11:29
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.3
Q1 11:29
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 28
-6.1
Q1 10:43
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:59
Josh Holst pass complete to Romelo Ware for 9 yds to the NIU 47
-0.9
Q1 9:31
Josh Holst pass incomplete
-1.0
Q1 9:24
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the NIU 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 8:52
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Cam Thompson
-0.2
Q1 8:50
Jaylen Poe run for 9 yds to the FRES 43
0.0
Q1 8:04
Josh Holst sacked by Sione Noa for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 44
-0.5
Q1 7:31
Josh Holst pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 3 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q1 6:52
Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 06:52
-1.8
Q1 6:52
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the FRES 38
0.0
Q1 6:11
Jaylen Poe run for 1 yd to the FRES 37
-0.1
Q1 5:28
Josh Holst run for 20 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 4:42
Justin Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 18
0.0
Q1 4:02
Josh Holst run for 3 yds to the FRES 15
0.0
Q1 3:23
Josh Holst pass complete to Gavin Williams for 3 yds to the FRES 12
0.0
Q1 2:45
Kanon Woodill 29 Yd Field Goal
-3.9
Q1 2:45
Austin Bullock kickoff for 61 yds , Jordan Brown return for 16 yds to the FRES 49 Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Boust) to the FRES 10
+2.1
Q1 2:32
Joshua Wood run for 10 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST down
+3.5
Q1 2:26
Bryson Donelson run for 13 yds to the FRES 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:49
Joshua Wood pass complete to Mac Dalena for 54 yds to the NIU 13 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q1 1:08
Joshua Wood 13 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)
+13.3
Q1 1:08
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds , Cam Thompson return for 14 yds to the NIU 14
-0.7
Q1 1:00
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the NIU 15
-4.0
Q1 0:00
Telly Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 13
+0.1
Q2 15:00
Josh Holst pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 10 yds to the NIU 23
0.0
Q2 14:25
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the NIU 25 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 13:42
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 25
0.0
Q2 13:04
Josh Holst pass complete to La'Don Bryant for 28 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:22
Jaylen Poe run for 3 yds to the FRES 44
-1.6
Q2 11:47
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 41
0.0
Q2 11:03
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the FRES 40
-0.2
Q2 10:21
Josh Holst pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 6 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST down
+1.0
Q2 9:48
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FRES 33
-0.7
Q2 9:06
Josh Holst pass complete to Telly Johnson Jr. for 2 yds to the FRES 31
0.0
Q2 8:17
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the FRES 29
+2.9
Q2 7:45
Josh Holst pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 14 yds to the FRES 15 for a 1ST down
+1.6
Q2 7:06
Josh Holst pass complete to Jake Appleget for 9 yds to the FRES 6
-0.8
Q2 6:21
Jaylen Poe run for 2 yds to the FRES 4 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 5:44
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 1
+0.1
Q2 5:12
Josh Holst pass incomplete
+0.6
Q2 5:07
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 1
0.0
Q2 4:15
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 1
+1.0
Q2 4:15
Joshua Wood run for 4 yds to the FRES 5
+4.5
Q2 3:38
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 8
0.0
Q2 3:01
Joshua Wood pass complete to Jordan Brown for 10 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST down
+1.0
Q2 2:30
Joshua Wood pass complete to Mac Dalena for 1 yd to the FRES 19
+0.1
Q2 1:55
Joshua Wood pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 8 yds to the FRES 27
-0.1
Q2 1:55
Joshua Wood pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 6 yds to the FRES 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:41
Joshua Wood pass complete to Jordan Brown for 13 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:36
Joshua Wood pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 4 yds to the 50 yard line
+0.1
Q2 1:30
Joshua Wood run for 15 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q2 1:05
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (Jacob Spomer) to the NIU 40
+1.9
Q2 1:01
Joshua Wood pass incomplete to Lyndon Ravare
0.0
Q2 0:54
Joshua Wood pass complete to Jordan Brown for 9 yds to the NIU 31
0.0
Q2 0:38
Timeout Fresno State, clock 00:38
-0.2
Q2 0:38
Joshua Wood pass incomplete to Johnathan Arceneaux
0.0
Q2 0:29
Dylan Lynch 49 yd FG MISSED
-0.2
Q2 0:29
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Grayson Barnes
-2.6
Q2 0:25
Josh Holst pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 1 yd to the NIU 32
-0.1
Q2 0:16
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the NIU 32
+0.4
Q2 0:13
Timeout Fresno State, clock 00:13
0.0
Q2 0:06
Tom Foley punt blocked by Kosi Aginat 0 yards to the NIU32, recovered by FRESNOST Foreman, Korey at NIU25, Foreman, Korey for 1 yard to the NIU24 (blocked by Agina, Kosi). Korey Foreman return for 1 yd to the NIU 24
0.0
Q2 0:01
Dylan Lynch 42 yd FG MISSED
+2.6
Q2 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 23
-2.6
Q3 15:00
Dylan Lynch kickoff for 53 yds , Isaiah Bragg return for 12 yds to the NIU 24
+1.4
Q3 14:53
Jaylen Poe run for 13 yds to the NIU 37 for a 1ST down
-1.2
Q3 14:13
Josh Holst pass complete to Jake Appleget for 20 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 13:49
Jaylen Poe run for 1 yd to the FRES 42
-1.0
Q3 13:01
Jaylen Poe run for 4 yds to the FRES 38
0.0
Q3 12:22
Holst, Josh pass incomplete to Bryant, La'Don, PENALTY FRESNOST pass interference (Mouzon, Loyall) 15 yards to the FRESNOST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NIU.
-0.2
Q3 12:13
Josh Holst pass incomplete
+2.1
Q3 12:06
Josh Holst sacked by Jairus Satele for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 26
0.0
Q3 11:22
Grayson Barnes 26 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Kanon Woodill Kick)
-20.9
Q3 11:22
Austin Bullock kickoff for 57 yds , Mac Dalena return for 36 yds to the FRES 44
+2.9
Q3 11:14
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 47
+5.0
Q3 10:32
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (Toreon Penright) to the FRES 42
+0.2
Q3 10:11
Jayden Mandal pass incomplete
+2.0
Q3 9:50
Jayden Mandal pass intercepted Nate Valcarcel return for 11 yds to the NIU 49
+0.3
Q3 9:50
Josh Holst pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 21 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST down
-9.0
Q3 9:20
Holst, Josh pass incomplete to Bragg, Isaiah, PENALTY FRESNOST pass interference (Miller, RL) 10 yards to the FRESNOST20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NIU.
-0.9
Q3 8:54
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 17
0.0
Q3 8:22
Telly Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 17
0.0
Q3 7:52
Josh Holst pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 7:39
Kanon Woodill 34 Yd Field Goal
-8.8
Q3 7:39
Austin Bullock kickoff for 59 yds for a touchback
+1.9
Q3 7:39
Bryson Donelson run for 8 yds to the FRES 33
+6.6
Q3 7:19
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the FRES 33
0.0
Q3 6:23
Jayden Mandal pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 2 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:04
Jayden Mandal pass incomplete to Richie Anderson
0.0
Q3 5:58
Jayden Mandal pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 8 yds to the FRES 43
0.0
Q3 5:37
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the FRES 43
+0.9
Q3 4:56
Clay Lawrence punt for 31 yds, downed at the NIU 26
-0.3
Q3 4:56
Josh Holst pass incomplete to George Dimopoulos
-7.1
Q3 4:48
Josh Holst pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 15 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 4:11
Josh Holst run for 11 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q3 3:42
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Dane Pardridge
-1.1
Q3 3:35
Josh Holst pass complete to Gavin Williams for 1 yd to the FRES 47
0.0
Q3 2:51
Josh Holst run for 5 yds to the FRES 42
0.0
Q3 2:01
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Grayson Barnes
+0.6
Q3 2:01
Joshua Wood sacked by Pierce Oppong for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 36
+9.4
Q3 1:18
Joshua Wood pass incomplete
-0.6
Q3 1:01
Joshua Wood pass complete to Mac Dalena for 5 yds to the FRES 41
0.0
Q3 0:15
Clay Lawrence punt for 59 yds for a touchback
+0.1
Q3 0:00
Josh Holst run for 5 yds to the NIU 25
-7.0
Q4 15:00
Josh Holst run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIU 22
0.0
Q4 14:15
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Andrew McElroy
+0.9
Q4 13:53
Tom Foley punt for 52 yds, downed at the FRES 26
0.0
Q4 13:53
Joshua Wood pass complete to Mac Dalena for 21 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST down
+7.4
Q4 13:19
Joshua Wood pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the NIU 47
+1.1
Q4 12:40
Joshua Wood pass incomplete to Jordan Brown
+0.9
Q4 12:35
Wood, Joshua pass incomplete to Brown, Jordan, PENALTY NIU roughing passer (O'Malley, Devonte) 15 yards to the NIU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FRESNOST.
-0.2
Q4 12:14
Joshua Wood pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 2 yds to the NIU 30
+0.6
Q4 12:01
Joshua Wood run for 7 yds to the NIU 23
0.0
Q4 11:40
Joshua Wood run for no gain to the NIU 23
-0.2
Q4 11:02
Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 11:02
-0.8
Q4 10:57
Joshua Wood pass incomplete to Richie Anderson
0.0
Q4 10:57
Josh Holst run for 5 yds to the NIU 28
-8.8
Q4 10:26
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 31
0.0
Q4 9:51
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 8:58
Josh Holst run for 4 yds to the NIU 39
-0.8
Q4 8:24
Josh Holst run for 3 yds to the NIU 42
-1.0
Q4 7:57
Josh Holst pass complete to Gavin Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 40
-0.3
Q4 7:14
Holst, Josh pass incomplete, PENALTY FRESNOST offside (Foreman, Korey) 5 yards to the NIU45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NIU.
+0.7
Q4 6:52
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 16 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST down
-1.2
Q4 6:18
Josh Holst run for 9 yds to the FRES 30
-0.7
Q4 5:44
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:04
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the FRES 18
0.0
Q4 4:26
Josh Holst run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 19
0.0
Q4 3:43
Jaylen Poe run for 1 yd to the FRES 18
-0.3
Q4 3:02
Kanon Woodill 35 yd FG MISSED
+0.8
Q4 3:02
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 25
+10.5
Q4 2:29
Bryson Donelson run for 23 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:00
Joshua Wood run for 4 yds to the NIU 48
+0.9
Q4 1:48
Joshua Wood pass complete to Mac Dalena for 16 yds to the NIU 32 for a 1ST down
+1.9
Q4 1:07
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the NIU 27
+0.4
Q4 0:59
Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 00:59
0.0
Q4 0:59
Bryson Donelson run for 10 yds to the NIU 17 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:38
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the NIU 15
0.0
Q4 0:12
Joshua Wood run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 17
0.0
Q4 0:04
Timeout Fresno State, clock 00:04
-0.2
Q4 0:00
Dylan Lynch 35 yd FG MISSED
+0.2
Q5 0:00
Joshua Wood pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 11 yds to the NIU 14 for a 1ST down
+2.4
Q5 0:00
Joshua Wood pass complete to Richie Anderson for 5 yds to the NIU 9
0.0
Q5 0:00
Bryson Donelson 9 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Dylan Lynch Kick)
+23.7
Q5 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 27
-3.8
Q5 0:00
Josh Holst pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 13 yds to the FRES 14 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q5 0:00
Josh Holst run for 8 yds to the FRES 6
-0.8
Q5 0:00
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Grayson Barnes
0.0
Q5 0:00
Dimopoulos, George pass incomplete to Tewes, Tristen, PENALTY FRESNOST holding (Davis, Jayden) 3 yards to the FRESNOST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NIU.
+0.8
Q5 0:00
Grayson Barnes 3 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Kanon Woodill Kick)
-31.0
Q6 0:00
Dane Pardridge 25 Yd pass from George Dimopoulos (George Dimopoulos Pass to Josh Holst for Two-Point Conversion)
-27.1
Q6 0:00
Joshua Wood pass incomplete to Lyndon Ravare
-7.1
Q6 0:00
Joshua Wood run for 1 yd to the NIU 24
0.0
Q6 0:00
Joshua Wood pass incomplete
0.0
Q6 0:00
Timeout Fresno State, clock 00:00
0.0
Q6 0:00
Joshua Wood sacked by Jordan Hansen for a loss of 14 yards to the NIU 38
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q5 0:00
Grayson Barnes 3 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Kanon Woodill Kick)
-31
TD · Q6 0:00
Dane Pardridge 25 Yd pass from George Dimopoulos (George Dimopoulos Pass to Josh Holst for Two-Point Conversion)
-27.1
TD · Q5 0:00
Bryson Donelson 9 Yd pass from Joshua Wood (Dylan Lynch Kick)
+23.7
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com