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TOL

Toledo 13 at Northern Illinois 6

NIU
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:10 · Tom Foley punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense−9.2Pregame prior+2.4Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:08: John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 52 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +9.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:08: Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 08:08 — NIU win probability +2.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:22: Dylan Cunanan 22 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +9.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:12: Dylan Cunanan 27 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +5.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 11:12: Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 11:12 — NIU win probability +3.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 14 of 15TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 13
  1. Q1 11:43NIU 4th & 5 at TOL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:13TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 37, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:44NIU 4th & 1 at TOL 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:27TOL 4th & 1 at NIU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−0.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:16NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53TOL 4th & 8 at NIU 27, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:53TOL 4th & 8 at NIU 27, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:48NIU 4th & 9 at TOL 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:55NIU 4th & 1 at TOL 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−2.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:51TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:36NIU 4th & 8 at TOL 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:16TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:50TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 19, up 1
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:53NIU 4th & 4 at TOL 45, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−3.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:54TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:01NIU 4th & 11 at TOL 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−1.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:22TOL 4th & 2 at NIU 4, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%−3.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−19.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:10NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:12TOL 4th & 5 at NIU 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−15.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:34NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:29TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:58NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.7%−4.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:54NIU 4th & 1 at TOL 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−9.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−10.5
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:50TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  25. Q4 1:23NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−0.4
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:01NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−1.2
    average punt
  27. Q4 0:41TOL 4th & 8 at NIU 34, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−1.3
    average punt
  28. Q4 0:17NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 8:08TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:1060% → 60%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
59.9%
Josh Holst pass complete to Cam Thompson for 24 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.0%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
60.0%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-5
59.9%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Malcore,Evan) 5 yards from NIU49 to NIU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+15
59.9%
Josh Holst run for 15 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
60.1%
Antario Brown run for 17 yds to the TOL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
60.3%
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
60.4%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
60.4%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
60.4%
Kanon Woodill 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1840% → 40%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
60.2%
Sevaughn Clark run for 2 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
60.2%
John Alan Richter run for 1 yd to the TOL 31Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+6
60.4%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
60.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:2261% → 61%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+27
60.7%
Josh Holst pass complete to Gavin Williams for 12 yds to the NIU 29 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Daniel Bolden) to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
61.5%
Josh Holst pass complete to Cam Thompson for 8 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+2
61.3%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 4
50
+3
61.6%
Josh Holst pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 3 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
60.9%
Brock Lampe run for no gain to the TOL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:0840% → 40%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
60.2%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 11 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
60.0%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+11
59.9%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 11 yds to the NIU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
59.5%
Connor Walendzak run for 8 yds to the NIU 17Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+3
59.1%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the NIU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
59.5%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the NIU 11Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-1
59.4%
John Alan Richter sacked by Devonte O'Malley for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 12Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+7
59.4%
John Alan Richter run for 7 yds to the NIU 5Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
60.0%
Sevaughn Clark run for no gain to the NIU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0461% → 60%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
60.8%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 4Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+5
60.7%
Josh Holst pass complete to Brock Lampe for 5 yds to the NIU 9Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+1
60.3%
Josh Holst run for 1 yd to the NIU 10Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
60.0%
Tom Foley punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the NIU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1541% → 40%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
59.2%
Connor Walendzak run for 7 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+3
58.5%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the NIU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
58.5%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the NIU 26Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
58.4%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the NIU 27Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
59.3%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+4
60.2%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Anthony Torres for 4 yds to the NIU 23Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+4
60.2%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Anthony Torres for 4 yds to the NIU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 38 yds · 5:5961% → 63%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
61.1%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 24Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+1
61.0%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 25Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+8
60.4%
Josh Holst run for 8 yds to the NIU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
61.5%
(12:49) Shotgun Holst,Josh pass incomplete deep left to Rudolph,Trayvon thrown to TOL30 PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Bowers,Nasir) 15 yards from NIU33 to NIU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
63.0%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
50
+7
63.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 7 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
62.9%
Brock Lampe run for 3 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
63.6%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
63.5%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+26
63.2%
Josh Holst run for 36 yds Northern Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TOL 41Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+2
63.4%
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
62.6%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:3340% → 49%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
60.1%
Sevaughn Clark run for 9 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+52
51.0%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 52 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:5953% → 53%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
53.4%
Gavin Williams run for 9 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+18
54.6%
Antario Brown run for 18 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
55.8%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
55.6%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the TOL 27Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
54.3%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the TOL 26Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
53.1%
Grayson Barnes run for 1 yd to the TOL 27 Grayson Barnes fumbled, recovered by NIU Grayson BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5349% → 46%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
51.4%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 2 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
51.1%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-4
52.2%
Toledo Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-4 Yards) to the TOL 25Similar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+2
53.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 49 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 2 yds to the NIU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:0751% → 55%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
50.9%
Gavin Williams run for 14 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
52.9%
Gavin Williams run for 14 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
53.7%
Gavin Williams run for 8 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
53.9%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
55.5%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
58.7%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the TOL 31Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+1
56.8%
Josh Holst run for 1 yd to the TOL 30Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
55.1%
Kanon Woodill 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:1644% → 43%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
55.6%
Sevaughn Clark run for 6 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
54.9%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Sevaughn Clark for 1 yd to the TOL 37Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
55.7%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
56.8%
Emilio Duran punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 1:1253% → 57%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
53.1%
Josh Holst pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 5 yds to the NIU 25Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+28
53.6%
Josh Holst pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 13 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Jerjuan Newton) to the TOL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
57.0%
Josh Holst pass complete to Cam Thompson for 6 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+6
57.0%
Josh Holst run for 6 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
58.8%
Josh Holst pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 1 yd to the TOL 34Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+9
61.3%
Gavin Williams run for 9 yds to the TOL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
60.8%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
60.7%
Josh Holst run for 1 yd to the TOL 20Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+37
57.1%
Kanon Woodill 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5946% → 44%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
53.9%
Sevaughn Clark run for 7 yds to the TOL 20Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+1
53.4%
Sevaughn Clark run for 1 yd to the TOL 19Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
54.8%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
56.0%
Emilio Duran punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5357% → 56%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
56.5%
Josh Holst pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 12 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
58.7%
Josh Holst run for no gain to the NIU 49Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
57.8%
Josh Holst pass complete to George Dimopoulos for 6 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
58.2%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
56.1%
Tom Foley punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:5347% → 47%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
53.4%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Santana Banner) to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.5%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
52.1%
Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
50.9%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
53.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:4654% → 53%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
54.1%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the NIU 19Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+7
54.0%
Josh Holst pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 7 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
54.4%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+4
56.2%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+30
52.3%
Josh Holst pass complete to Cam Thompson for 30 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
58.7%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the TOL 43Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
57.9%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
55.0%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
52.9%
Tom Foley punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FG
15 plays · 88 yds · 4:3348% → 64%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
52.5%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the TOL 11Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
52.5%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+8
53.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 8 yds to the TOL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+28
51.6%
Connor Walendzak run for 28 yds to the TOL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
47.8%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
48.3%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 9 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
46.1%
Sevaughn Clark run for 2 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
46.2%
Sevaughn Clark run for 5 yds to the NIU 37Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+10
45.5%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Richter,John Alan pass incomplete short middle to Zsiros,Thomas thrown to NIU22 PENALTY NIU Holding (Prophete,Jashon) 10 yards from NIU37 to NIU27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
43.8%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Richter,John Alan pass incomplete deep left to Stephens,Larry thrown to NIU00 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Prophete,Jashon) 15 yards from NIU27 to NIU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
43.7%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the NIU 10Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
43.5%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds to the NIU 4Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
45.2%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+22
36.0%
Dylan Cunanan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5941% → 38%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
41.4%
Josh Holst pass complete to Jake Appleget for 11 yds to the NIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
42.5%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 38Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
42.8%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 37Similar
Q3 0:16
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
40.1%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
38.0%
Tom Foley punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:4864% → 76%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
35.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 12 yds to the TOL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
33.7%
Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the TOL 47Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
33.5%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 15 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
31.8%
Sevaughn Clark run for no gain to the NIU 38Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
31.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+20
31.7%
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 5 yds to the NIU 29 for a 1ST down Northern Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Finley) to the NIU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
29.5%
John Alan Richter run for 2 yds to the NIU 16Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+7
29.6%
John Alan Richter run for 7 yds to the NIU 9Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
29.4%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
23.9%
Dylan Cunanan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:2427% → 25%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
27.1%
Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+6
26.3%
Josh Holst pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 6 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
26.1%
Josh Holst pass complete to Cam Thompson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
50
+2
29.7%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-5
30.0%
PENALTY NIU False Start (McElroy,Andrew) 5 yards from TOL48 to NIU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
26.4%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
25.1%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
24.6%
Tom Foley punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5879% → 81%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
20.8%
Sevaughn Clark run for 8 yds to the TOL 21Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+10
19.5%
Sevaughn Clark run for 10 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
18.4%
Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
17.1%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
17.5%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
18.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:2922% → 22%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
21.8%
Josh Holst pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 4 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
21.3%
Josh Holst pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 8 yds to the NIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
21.0%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the NIU 33Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
24.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to Gavin Williams for 5 yds to the NIU 38Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+1
25.4%
Josh Holst run for 1 yd to the NIU 39Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+11
22.3%
Josh Holst pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
50
0
27.3%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 10
50
0
26.1%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 10
50
+10
24.1%
Josh Holst run for 10 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
21.9%
Josh Holst run for no gain to the TOL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5592% → 95%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
8.4%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the TOL 42Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+1
8.6%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the TOL 43Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
4.7%
John Alan Richter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
5.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:4013% → 12%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
13.2%
Josh Holst sacked by D'Andre Ragin for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 22Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
12.9%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
12.5%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+14
11.9%
Josh Holst pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 14 yds to the NIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.0%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
13.2%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
12.3%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
11.5%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1696% → 95%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
4.0%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the NIU 35Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+1
4.0%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the NIU 34Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
4.3%
Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the NIU 34Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
5.1%
Emilio Duran punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:196% → 6%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
6.2%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
6.0%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
5.9%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
5.8%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
3.2%
J. Alan Richter takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:08
John Alan Richter pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 52 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
-9.1
FG · Q3 2:22
Dylan Cunanan 22 yd FG GOOD
-9.1
FG · Q4 11:12
Dylan Cunanan 27 yd FG GOOD
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com