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NIU

Northern Illinois 17 at Bowling Green 7

BGSU
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:35 · Tom Foley punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rahkeem Smith at the BGSU 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Home team on offense−29.9Pregame prior+0.6Garbage-time factor−11.6Score differential−12.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8
This game in five plays
  1. SACK · Q3 13:18: Connor Bazelak sacked by Cade Haberman for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 45 — BGSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:53: Josh Holst 22 Yd Run (Grayson Barnes Pass to Isaac Hatfield for Two-Point Conversion) — NIU win probability +31.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:45: Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete — BGSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:39: Josh Holst pass incomplete — NIU win probability +7.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:00: Kanon Woodill 27 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +3.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 8:58NIU 4th & 18 at BGSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:21NIU 4th & 3 at BGSU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−0.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:06BGSU 4th & 7 at NIU 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:47BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:54NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.4%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:12NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:40NIU 4th & 7 at BGSU 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:40NIU 4th & 4 at BGSU 4, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:22BGSU 4th & 18 at BGSU 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:56BGSU 4th & 14 at BGSU 23, up 1
    Numbers favored punt by 3.0 ptsWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:44BGSU 4th & 14 at NIU 14, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−11.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:27NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 40, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:39BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 9, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−5.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:43BGSU 4th & 2 at NIU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−3.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−5.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:00NIU 4th & 10 at BGSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−9.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:04BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:35NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:55BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 20, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NIU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 6:55BGSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:53NIU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 5:3042% → 42%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 1 yd to the NIU 26Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
58.3%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
58.3%
(13:38) Shotgun Hampton,Ethan pass incomplete short left to Barnes,Grayson thrown to NIU40 PENALTY BGSU Holding (Brown,CJ) 10 yards from NIU28 to NIU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
58.2%
Gavin Williams run for 11 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
58.1%
Bowling Green Penalty, (15 Yards) to the BGSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
58.0%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the BGSU 33Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+12
57.9%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 12 yds to the BGSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
57.8%
Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the BGSU 26Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+5
57.9%
Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the BGSU 21Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-8
57.9%
Ethan Hampton sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the BGSU 29Similar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 18
OPP 29
+46
58.2%
Kanon Woodill 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4958% → 60%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
57.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 36 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+28
58.5%
Terion Stewart run for 28 yds to the NIU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
58.8%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the NIU 11Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
58.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
60.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:2840% → 40%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.7%
Gavin Williams run for 8 yds to the NIU 33Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
59.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Justin Lynch for 5 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
59.4%
Gavin Williams run for 14 yds to the BGSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
59.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 49Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+2
59.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 2 yds to the BGSU 47Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+6
59.4%
Ethan Hampton run for 6 yds to the BGSU 41Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+2
59.8%
Ethan Hampton run for 2 yds to the BGSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:0861% → 61%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
60.6%
Rahkeem Smith run for 5 yds to the BGSU 44Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
61.2%
Terion Stewart run for 7 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
61.3%
Connor Bazelak run for 11 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
61.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 11 yds to the NIU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
61.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 3 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
62.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
61.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
60.6%
Jackson Kleather 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1240% → 38%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
60.4%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
60.5%
Josh Holst run for 1 yd to the NIU 25Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
61.0%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Tom Foley punt for 34 yds , Rahkeem Smith returns for no gain to the BGSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5261% → 60%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
61.3%
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the BGSU 40Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+6
60.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 6 yds to the BGSU 46Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+3
61.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the BGSU 43Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
60.1%
John Henderson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:2839% → 39%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
60.7%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the NIU 20Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
60.9%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the NIU 23Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+3
61.5%
Ethan Hampton run for 3 yds to the NIU 26Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+3
62.0%
Ethan Hampton run for 3 yds to the NIU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
60.9%
Ahmir Smith run for no gain to the NIU 29Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
61.0%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+8
61.7%
Ethan Hampton run for 8 yds to the NIU 37Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
61.4%
Tom Foley punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
61.4%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Roy Williams for 0 yards to the BGSU 10 Connor Bazelak fumbled, recovered by NIU Jalonnie Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0542% → 39%
Q2 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
57.8%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the BGSU 8Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
57.8%
Ethan Hampton run for 1 yd to the BGSU 7Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
59.1%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
60.8%
Kanon Woodill 24 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ali Saad (07:43) Woodill,Kanon field goal attempt from 24 yards NO GOOD blocked by Saad,Ali (H: Foley,Tom, LS: Hatfield,Isaac), clock 07:40 recovered by NIU Woodill,Kanon at BGSU14 Woodill,Kanon return for loss of 3 yards to the BGSU17 (Horne,Brock), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. , Kanon Woodill return for no gain to the BGSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1362% → 62%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
62.4%
Terion Stewart run for 9 yds to the BGSU 26Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+3
63.2%
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the BGSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
62.6%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Jalonnie Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the BGSU 21Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 18
OWN 21
0
62.3%
John Henderson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 4:1340% → 43%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
60.2%
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
60.0%
Josh Holst run for 4 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
59.9%
Josh Holst pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 5 yds to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
59.4%
Josh Holst pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 5 yds to the BGSU 42Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+12
59.1%
Gavin Williams run for 12 yds to the BGSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
58.5%
Gavin Williams run for 7 yds to the BGSU 23Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+4
58.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to Cam Thompson for 4 yds to the BGSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
58.2%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the BGSU 19Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+14
58.6%
Josh Holst run for 14 yds to the BGSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
57.6%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the BGSU 4Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
56.6%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the BGSU 6Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
57.7%
Josh Holst pass complete to Gavin Williams for 2 yds to the BGSU 4Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
57.5%
Kanon Woodill 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:1360% → 59%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
60.0%
Jaison Patterson run for 11 yds to the BGSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
62.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 6
50
-5
62.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the BGSU 45Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-7
59.6%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Skyler Gill-Howard for a loss of 7 yards to the BGSU 38Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
59.3%
John Henderson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:1640% → 41%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
60.2%
Gavin Williams run for 10 yds to the NIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
59.2%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the NIU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14MISSED FG
18 plays · 59 yds · 6:0162% → 62%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
62.4%
Rahkeem Smith run for 1 yd to the BGSU 28Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-5
62.3%
PENALTY BGSU False Start (Burns,Jake) 5 yards from BGSU28 to BGSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 14
OWN 23
0
61.9%
Bowling Green Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 14
OWN 23
0
60.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+23
59.9%
John Henderson run for 23 yds to the BGSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
65.0%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Cade Haberman for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 45Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
63.6%
PENALTY BGSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness offsetting NIU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+16
63.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 16 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
65.4%
Terion Stewart run for 8 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+2
66.3%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the NIU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
66.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 10 yds to the NIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
66.4%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Stewart,Terion rush left for 8 yards loss to the NIU27 (Fuhrman,Christian; Knighten,Amariyun) PENALTY NIU Face Mask (Prophete,Jashon) 10 yards from NIU19 to NIU09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
66.5%
Jaison Patterson run for 7 yds to the NIU 2Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.7%
Harold Fannin Jr. run for no gain to the NIU 2Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
65.5%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Skyler Gill-Howard for a loss of 7 yards to the NIU 9Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
63.6%
(08:50) Long,Zach field goal attempt from 27 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: Kenner,Travis, LS: Carlson,George), clock 08:50 PENALTY BGSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from NIU09 to NIU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
61.5%
Zach Long 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1338% → 38%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.8%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
62.1%
Josh Holst pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 7 yds to the NIU 27Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
61.9%
Josh Holst run for 5 yds to the NIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
60.9%
Gavin Williams run for 7 yds to the NIU 39Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
58.9%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the NIU 39Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+1
59.3%
Justin Lynch run for 1 yd to the NIU 40Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
61.9%
Tom Foley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rahkeem Smith at the BGSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4263% → 59%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
62.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-5
62.3%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Stewart,Terion rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BGSU26 (Valcarcel,Nate) PENALTY BGSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from BGSU16 to BGSU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 15
OWN 11
0
62.0%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the BGSU 11Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 15
OWN 11
+2
60.5%
Lucian Anderson III run for 2 yds to the BGSU 9Similar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 17
OWN 9
0
59.2%
John Henderson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the BGSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:3843% → 74%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
57.5%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the BGSU 44Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+7
57.6%
Gavin Williams run for 7 yds to the BGSU 37Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
57.4%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the BGSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
56.0%
Ahmir Smith run for 5 yds to the BGSU 29Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
55.5%
Ahmir Smith run for 1 yd to the BGSU 30Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+8
57.6%
Josh Holst pass complete to Cam Thompson for 8 yds to the BGSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
26.2%
Josh Holst 22 Yd Run (Grayson Barnes Pass to Isaac Hatfield for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:4933% → 34%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.1%
Lucian Anderson III run for no gain to the BGSU 25Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.0%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the BGSU 25Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.2%
Terion Stewart run for 5 yds to the BGSU 30Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
29.2%
(12:54) Henderson,John punt 30 yards to the NIU40 fair catch by Pardridge,Dane at NIU40 PENALTY NIU Leaping (Tierney,Ethan) 15 yards from BGSU30 to BGSU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
34.8%
Lucian Anderson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
33.4%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson III,Lucian pass incomplete deep left to Pegues,Justin thrown to NIU33 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Hansen,Jordan) 15 yards from BGSU45 to NIU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
36.7%
Lucian Anderson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
36.4%
Terion Stewart run for 5 yds to the NIU 35Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+3
36.1%
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+1
33.7%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 1 yd to the NIU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:3974% → 87%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
25.8%
Josh Holst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
26.3%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the NIU 31Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+16
26.8%
Josh Holst pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 16 yds to the NIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
22.7%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the BGSU 47Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+15
20.1%
Josh Holst pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 15 yds to the BGSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
18.5%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the BGSU 33Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
18.2%
Josh Holst run for no gain to the BGSU 33Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+23
18.7%
Josh Holst pass complete to Cam Thompson for 23 yds to the BGSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
17.4%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the BGSU 10Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
16.2%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the BGSU 9Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
16.5%
(06:31) Shotgun Holst,Josh pass complete short right to Thompson,Cam caught at BGSU00, for 0 yards to the BGSU09 PENALTY NIU Illegal Formation 5 yards from BGSU09 to BGSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+4
16.7%
Josh Holst pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 4 yds to the BGSU 10Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
13.0%
Kanon Woodill 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4513% → 10%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
13.1%
Lucian Anderson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
12.5%
Lucian Anderson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-2
11.7%
Lucian Anderson III sacked by Devonte O'Malley for a loss of 2 yards to the BGSU 25Similar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
9.8%
John Henderson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:2289% → 90%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
10.7%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the NIU 43Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
9.7%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the NIU 45Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-1
9.8%
Josh Holst sacked by Joseph Sipp Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 44Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
10.3%
Tom Foley punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rahkeem Smith at the BGSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:319% → 5%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
8.8%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the BGSU 18Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+2
7.3%
Lucian Anderson III run for 2 yds to the BGSU 20Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
5.2%
Lucian Anderson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+8
4.9%
Lucian Anderson III run for 8 yds to the BGSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
5.5%
Lucian Anderson III pass complete to Finn Hogan for 9 yds to the BGSU 37Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
5.9%
Lucian Anderson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
5.3%
Lucian Anderson III pass intercepted Nate Valcarcel return for no gain to the BGSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:4996% → 96%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
4.4%
Kneel down by NIU at BGSU26 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-1
4.5%
Kneel down by NIU at BGSU27 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
-1
3.9%
Kneel down by NIU at BGSU28 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:53
Josh Holst 22 Yd Run (Grayson Barnes Pass to Isaac Hatfield for Two-Point Conversion)
-31.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:39
Josh Holst pass incomplete
-7.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:45
Lucian Anderson III pass incomplete
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com