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BUF

Buffalo 23 at Northern Illinois 20

NIU
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:00 · Ethan Hampton pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 10 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 174Pregame prior+0.7Home team on offense−13.5Garbage-time factor−10.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5Score differential+0.6Blowout margin−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:59: C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 46 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — BUF win probability +10.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 12:02: Al-Jay Henderson run for 36 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — BUF win probability +25.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 3:28: Upton Bellenfant 42 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +21.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:24: Kanon Woodill 27 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +37.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Upton Bellenfant 37 Yd Field Goal — BUF win probability +25.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10BUF made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:42BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:51NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:50BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:57NIU 4th & 3 at BUF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    78.7%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:41BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:44NIU 4th & 2 at BUF 22, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.8%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:22BUF 4th & 1 at NIU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.8%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:18BUF 4th & 9 at NIU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:53NIU 4th & 5 at BUF 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:11BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:10BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:31NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:49BUF 4th & 1 at midfield, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.4%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:54NIU 4th & 8 at BUF 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:35BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:51NIU 4th & 10 at BUF 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−11.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:11NIU 4th & 11 at BUF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−3.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    57.1%−5.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:56BUF 4th & 20 at BUF 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−9.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:28BUF 4th & 14 at NIU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−7.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−23.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:00NIU 4th & 3 at BUF 40, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%
    34% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−11.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:24NIU 4th & 9 at BUF 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−17.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−34.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:14NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:55NIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:59BUF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:02BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0815% → 15%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Taji Johnson for 1 yd to the BUF 26Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
85.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
85.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
85.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4485% → 85%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
85.0%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
84.8%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
84.7%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
84.7%
Tom Foley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5515% → 16%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
84.7%
Victor Snow run for 7 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
84.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+1
84.6%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BUF 30Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
84.5%
Ethan Duane punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 66 yds · 6:3285% → 85%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
84.5%
(11:50) Shotgun Brown,Antario rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU39 (Dolac,Shaun) PENALTY NIU Holding (Zschernitz,Logan) 10 yards from NIU34 to NIU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+14
84.3%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 14 yds to the NIU 38Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
84.2%
Ethan Hampton run for 5 yds to the NIU 33 Ethan Hampton fumbled, recovered by NIU Ethan HamptonSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+13
83.7%
Ethan Hampton run for 13 yds to the NIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
84.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Antario Brown for 3 yds to the NIU 49Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
83.8%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+21
83.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cam Thompson for 21 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
83.8%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
83.8%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the BUF 30 fumbled, recovered by BUFSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+7
83.5%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the BUF 23Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+10
83.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cam Thompson for 10 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
83.3%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the BUF 9Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+4
83.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Justin Lynch for 4 yds to the BUF 5Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
84.7%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2716% → 16%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 26Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
84.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
84.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 6 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
84.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 44 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 1 yd to the NIU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6MISSED FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:5186% → 85%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.9%
(03:34) Brown,Antario rush right for 0 yards to the NIU25 (Murdock,Red) PENALTY BUF Personal Foul 15 yards from NIU25 to NIU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
86.4%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
86.0%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 42Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+10
85.6%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 10 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
86.0%
Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (Red Murdock) to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
86.1%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BUF 36Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 16
OPP 36
-5
85.9%
PENALTY NIU Offside (Barnes,Grayson) 5 yards from BUF36 to BUF41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 21
OPP 41
+12
85.8%
Antario Brown run for 12 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+3
86.1%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the BUF 26Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+4
85.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 4 yds to the BUF 22Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+39
85.3%
Kanon Woodill 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 5:0916% → 21%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+22
83.6%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 22 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
82.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 4
50
+1
82.3%
Lamar Sperling run for 1 yd to the BUF 49Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+4
82.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 4 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
82.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
82.0%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 6 yds to the NIU 39Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+14
81.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to JJ Jenkins for 14 yds to the NIU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
81.1%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the NIU 26Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+2
81.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 2 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
81.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
79.2%
Upton Bellenfant 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:1981% → 82%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
80.8%
PENALTY BUF Personal Foul (Brown,SaVeon) 15 yards from NIU25 to NIU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
81.8%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 6 yds to the NIU 46 pass complete to for 5 yds Tristen Tewes fumbled, forced by Red Murdock, recovered by BUF Solomon BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:0221% → 21%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
79.3%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the NIU 45Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
79.2%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the NIU 43Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-4
79.2%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Nevaeh Sanders for a loss of 4 yards to the NIU 47 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by NIU Devonte O'Malley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2882% → 80%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
81.8%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 1 yd to the NIU 48Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
81.5%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
81.1%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
80.2%
Ethan Hampton punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3219% → 17%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
81.0%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 1Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+1
81.1%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 2Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+1
82.2%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 1Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 11
OWN 1
+8
82.6%
Ethan Duane punt for 43 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 8 yds to the BUF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:1082% → 90%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
82.3%
Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalen McNair) to the BUF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
90.3%
Antario Brown run for 14 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:3611% → 10%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
89.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 9 yds to the BUF 30Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-1
88.7%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 29Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-7
89.2%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Nevaeh Sanders for a loss of 7 yards to the BUF 22Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
89.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:0690% → 87%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
90.4%
Gavin Williams run for 13 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
91.0%
Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
90.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 3 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+7
89.6%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
90.3%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
89.3%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-1
86.8%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2387% → 86%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.1%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 22Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
86.9%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 4 yds to the NIU 26Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
86.5%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
86.0%
Tom Foley punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 41 , Victor Snow returns for 6 yds to the BUF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:2214% → 26%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
85.7%
Messiah Burch run for 7 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
85.3%
Messiah Burch run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 1
50
0
85.2%
Jacqez Barksdale run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 1
50
+1
86.0%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the NIU 49 C.J. Ogbonna fumbled, recovered by BUF Caelan Shepard for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
85.1%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+46
74.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 46 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:0279% → 78%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.0%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.7%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 26Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+18
77.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cam Thompson for 18 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
80.7%
Gavin Williams run for 9 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
81.1%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
81.1%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
80.9%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+2
80.1%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
78.1%
Ethan Hampton punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1323% → 22%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
76.7%
(06:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Ogbonna,C.J. pass incomplete deep right to Jenkins,JJ thrown to NIU50 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Finley,Jacob) 15 yards from BUF07 to BUF22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
76.1%
Victor Snow run for 1 yd to the BUF 21Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+5
76.3%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUF 26Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
76.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
77.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 5:3679% → 87%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
78.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Antario Brown for 18 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
80.7%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 2 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+5
79.8%
Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the BUF 49Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+24
80.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 24 yds to the BUF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
81.6%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the BUF 26Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
81.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for no gain to the BUF 26Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+13
80.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 13 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
81.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Justin Lynch for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 14Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+1
81.3%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the BUF 13Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
80.2%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
86.5%
Kanon Woodill 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3919% → 46%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
81.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 7 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
82.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
82.0%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Cade Haberman) to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
79.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
80.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+36
54.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 36 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4564% → 61%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.8%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
63.6%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
61.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 8 yds to the NIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
64.7%
Gavin Williams run for 19 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
68.5%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
68.0%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the BUF 46Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
64.1%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
61.3%
Tom Foley punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:0944% → 40%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
56.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 18Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-8
58.2%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Nevaeh Sanders for a loss of 8 yards to the BUF 10Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
59.6%
Ethan Duane punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 2:0565% → 63%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
50
+14
64.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 14 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
64.4%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
65.5%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the BUF 32Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
63.1%
Ethan Hampton pass intercepted Shaun Dolac return for no gain to the NIU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0458% → 73%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
42.5%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the NIU 22Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+2
42.8%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 14
OPP 24
0
48.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the NIU 24Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+42
27.3%
Upton Bellenfant 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25FG
19 plays · 66 yds · 2:5341% → 58%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.8%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Antario Brown for 1 yd to the NIU 26Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
36.2%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
37.0%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 38Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+15
35.9%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 15 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
36.7%
Ethan Hampton run for 1 yd to the BUF 46Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+3
33.4%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+3
32.7%
Ethan Hampton run for 3 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+10
28.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 10 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
32.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 6 yds to the BUF 24Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+15
28.3%
(00:42) Shotgun Hampton,Ethan pass incomplete short right to McElroy,Andrew thrown to BUF05 PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (McCartherens,Charles) 15 yards from BUF24 to BUF09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
28.2%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
28.2%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
21.3%
Ethan Hampton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
58.4%
Kanon Woodill 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
51.7%
C. Ogbonna takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27MISSED FG
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+37
26.7%
Upton Bellenfant 37 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:24
Kanon Woodill 27 yd FG GOOD
+37.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-26.7
TD · Q4 12:02
Al-Jay Henderson run for 36 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
-25.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com