2024 · Week 11 · Nov 6, 2024 · Waldo Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreNIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:12 · Tom Foley punt for 27 yds , Jordin Parker returns for 7 yds to the WMU 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:54: Jaden Nixon run for 14 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +15.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:09: Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 5 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +12.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:46: Broc Lowry run for 1 yd for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +15.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:19: Gavin Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +14.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:49: Hayden Wolff pass complete to Mareyohn Hrabowski for 10 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK) — WMU win probability +11.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 13:12NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 43, tiedClose callPunted · 53.8% before the snapGo for it53.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:37WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it46.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.6%average punt
- Q1 10:05NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snapGo for it52.6%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.7%average punt
- Q1 8:28WMU 4th & 1 at NIU 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt49.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:35WMU 4th & 8 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snapGo for it49.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.9%average punt
- Q2 4:40WMU 4th & 1 at NIU 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.9%70% to convertField goal37.7%−3.138% to makePunt37.5%−3.4average punt
- Q4 11:49WMU 4th & 2 at NIU 10, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.6%55% to convertField goal3.5%−0.188% to makePunt0.8%−2.9average punt
- Q4 4:25NIU 4th & 4 at WMU 26, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.0%48% to convertField goalTheir call94.8%−0.264% to makePunt91.3%−3.7average punt
- Q4 4:05WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 31, down 14Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.1%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.5%average punt
- Q4 3:05WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.5%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 9:18WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.1%97% to makeGo for two49.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:56NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.7%97% to makeGo for two49.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:05NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.4%97% to makeGo for two59.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:54WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.3%97% to makeGo for two48.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:09NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.8%97% to makeGo for two60.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:46WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.9%97% to makeGo for two48.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 8:19NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.9%97% to makeGo for two75.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:47NIU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:49WMU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.1%97% to makeGo for two9.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNIUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4854% → 54%
Q1 13:12
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+7
46.2%
Tom Foley punt for 27 yds , Jordin Parker returns for 7 yds to the WMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2046% → 47%
NIUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3253% → 53%
Q1 10:05
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
47.3%
Tom Foley punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordin Parker at the WMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4TD2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4747% → 49%
NIUDrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · 77 yds · 0:5051% → 51%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+28
49.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 28 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+49
49.1%
Antario Brown run for 49 yds to the WMU 2 Antario Brown fumbled, recovered by WMU Bilhal Kone B. Kone return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6INT13 plays · 56 yds · 7:2849% → 54%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
49.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 17 yds to the WMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
50.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 2 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
-15
54.1%
Ryan Millmore pass intercepted by Santana Banner, returrned 29 yards to the WMU 46. WMU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the WMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD5 plays · 31 yds · 2:0449% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 3:2149% → 50%
Q2 13:56
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+5
49.1%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Offsides (Skyler Gill-Howard) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9TD9 plays · 86 yds · 4:3051% → 65%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
48.7%
HAMPTON, Ethan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BARNES, Grayson thrown to the WMU32. PENALTY WMU Pass Interference on KONE, Bilhal enforced 15 yards to the NIU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+13
47.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Brock Lampe for 13 yds to the WMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+31
46.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 31 yds to the WMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
35.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 7 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1139% → 56%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
38.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 28 yds to the NIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD14 plays · 60 yds · 1:4553% → 70%
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
46.9%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 9 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
45.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 9 yds to the WMU 40Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+7
44.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the WMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
43.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 9 yds to the WMU 24Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
43.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the WMU 17Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+12
43.8%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 12 yds to the WMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 5 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13TD5 plays · 38 yds · 2:1441% → 57%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+17
42.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 17 yds to the NIU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
42.1%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the left incomplete intended for WOMACK, Kenneth thrown to the NIU0. PENALTY NIU Pass Interference on DOLPHIN, Jaden enforced 12 yards to the NIU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14INT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5037% → 32%
NIUDrive 15TD6 plays · 35 yds · 3:2468% → 83%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+12
32.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 12 yds to the WMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16INT9 plays · 59 yds · 4:4321% → 21%
Q3 8:19
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+6
20.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 6 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+15
20.5%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the right incomplete thrown to the WMU40. PENALTY NIU Pass Interference on BANNER, Santana enforced 15 yards to the WMU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
22.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 13 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
23.4%
NIXON, Jaden rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the NIU42 (GILL-HOWARD, Skyler). PENALTY WMU Holding on WEST, Addison enforced 10 yards from the NIU45 to the WMU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+35
21.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordin Parker for 35 yds to the NIU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
24.3%
WOLFF, Hayden pass deep up the middle complete for 19 yards to SAMBUCCI, Anthony caught at the NIU1 and advanced to the NIU1, End of Play. PENALTY WMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GIDEON, Jacob enforced 5 yards from the NIU20 to the NIU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-24
20.7%
Hayden Wolff pass intercepted Nate Valcarcel return for 24 yds to the NIU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17TD5 plays · 71 yds · 2:4985% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD10 plays · 60 yds · 3:585% → 15%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
5.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 11 yds to the NIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
5.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 8 yds to the NIU 10Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
14.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Mareyohn Hrabowski for 10 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19MISSED FG15 plays · 42 yds · 7:2492% → 96%
Q4 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+8
8.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 8 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
7.6%
JOHNSON JR., Telly rush up the middle for no gain to the WMU37 (WILLIS, Donald). PENALTY Before the snap, WMU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the WMU37 to the WMU32 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 19 yds · 1:202% → 2%
NIUDrive 21END OF GAME6 plays · 12 yds · 3:0598% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:46
Broc Lowry run for 1 yd for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)
+15.2
TD · Q2 1:54
Jaden Nixon run for 14 yds for a TD (Luka Zurak KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 8:19
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
-14.1