2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreNIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:16 · Tom Foley punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jaden Greathouse at the ND 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseOffense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differential
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 13:39: Kanon Woodill 21 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +1.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:58: Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 26 — ND win probability +10.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:34: Jeremiyah Love run for 34 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — ND win probability +15.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:55: Timeout Notre Dame, clock 05:55 — NIU win probability +10.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:31: Kanon Woodill 35 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +52.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 6NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
- Q1 3:47ND 4th & 19 at ND 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snapGo for it92.3%−0.310% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.6%average punt
- Q1 2:13NIU 4th & 8 at ND 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snapGo for it8.0%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call8.0%66% to makePunt7.5%−0.5average punt
- Q2 13:39NIU 4th & 2 at ND 4, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snapGo for it10.0%50% to convertField goalTheir call9.7%−0.393% to makePunt8.3%−1.7average punt
- Q2 10:43ND 4th & 8 at NIU 39, down 6Close callPunted · 87.7% before the snapGo for it87.6%34% to convertField goal87.3%−0.336% to makePuntTheir call87.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 6:16NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 41, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snapGo for it17.6%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%average punt
- Q2 3:16ND 4th & 4 at NIU 47, down 6Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snapGo for it81.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.0%−0.6average punt
- Q2 1:47NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 21, up 6Close callPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it21.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 0:03ND 4th & 3 at NIU 30, down 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snapGo for it78.8%52% to convertField goalTheir call77.8%−1.056% to makePunt77.0%−1.8average punt
- Q3 11:21NIU 4th & 8 at ND 36, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snapGo for it29.9%34% to convertField goalTheir call29.5%−0.442% to makePunt29.1%−0.8average punt
- Q3 2:45NIU 4th & 7 at ND 41, down 1Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snapGo for it23.0%37% to convertField goal21.4%−1.632% to makePuntTheir call22.1%−0.9average punt
- Q3 1:43ND 4th & 5 at ND 25, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.4%−1.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.5%average punt
- Q4 12:13NIU 4th & 2 at ND 30, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.0%57% to convertField goal26.5%−2.556% to makePunt23.1%−5.9average punt
- Q4 10:58ND 4th & 5 at ND 35, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snapGo for it72.3%−0.841% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.1%average punt
- Q4 7:55NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 45, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snapGo for it29.4%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.6%average punt
- Q4 1:56NIU 4th & 2 at ND 31, down 1Numbers favored field goal by 4.9 ptsWent for it · 37.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.3%−4.957% to convertField goal41.2%54% to makePunt27.1%−14.1average punt
- Q4 0:31NIU 4th & 1 at ND 19, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snapGo for it35.0%−21.371% to convertField goalTheir call56.4%77% to makePunt14.2%−42.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:28ND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:35NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.6%97% to makeGo for two6.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:34ND Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.8%97% to makeGo for two79.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNDDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2595% → 95%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 7 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
94.9%
(12:50) LOVE, Jeremiyah rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the NIU49 (FUHRMAN, Christian;WILLIAMS, Jalonnie), clock 12:44. PENALTY UND Holding on SCHRAUTH, Billy enforced 10 yards from the UND49 to the UND39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+8
94.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 8 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+14
94.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 14 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+11
94.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 11 yds to the NIU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD5 plays · 98 yds · 2:496% → 7%
Q1 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+83
93.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Antario Brown for 83 yds for a TD Notre Dame Penalty, Roughing the Passer on Rylie Mills. (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 1:4893% → 92%
NIUDrive 4FG5 plays · 30 yds · 1:288% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5INT4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1391% → 91%
NIUDrive 6FG6 plays · 51 yds · 2:0610% → 12%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+43
90.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Antario Brown for 43 yds to the ND 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 2:5289% → 88%
NIUDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 4:2114% → 16%
NDDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5385% → 83%
Q2 5:34
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+17
85.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 27 yds to the NIU 34 Notre Dame Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ND 35Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+12
84.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 12 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
85.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 2 yds to the NIU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1817% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11MISSED FG11 plays · 31 yds · 1:3881% → 64%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
81.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 6 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
81.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Devyn Ford for 6 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-14
73.7%
Riley Leonard sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the ND 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ND , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 24
OWN 37
+26
71.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 11 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST down Northern Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Nate Valcarcel) to the NIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
74.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 3 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
64.0%
Mitch Jeter 48 yd FG blocked by Cade Haberman, recovered by NIU Santana Banner, returned 47 yards to the ND 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12MISSED FG11 plays · 39 yds · 3:3725% → 32%
NDDrive 13TD6 plays · 64 yds · 2:4169% → 84%
NIUDrive 14PUNT12 plays · 34 yds · 5:4719% → 23%
Q3 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
80.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 12 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
73.8%
George Dimopoulos run for 12 yds to the NIU 32 Northern Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0277% → 74%
NIUDrive 16DOWNS10 plays · 30 yds · 4:2525% → 28%
NDDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1176% → 74%
NIUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4429% → 30%
NDDrive 19INT5 plays · 24 yds · 1:4269% → 72%
Q4 7:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
70.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 8 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
70.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 9 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-33
72.1%
Riley Leonard pass intercepted Amariyun Knighten return for 33 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FG15 plays · 31 yds · 5:2439% → 94%
NDDrive 21MISSED FG5 plays · 19 yds · 0:195% → 5%
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+19
5.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 19 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:31
Kanon Woodill 35 yd FG GOOD
-52.6
TD · Q3 8:34
Jeremiyah Love run for 34 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+15.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:58
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 26
+10.8