2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:02 · Matt Ference punt for 44 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:10: Jaden Dolphin 59 Yd Interception Return (John Richardson Kick) — NIU win probability +9.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:37: Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 42 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +12.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:18: Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +15.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:14: Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 17 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +14.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 1:12: Chad Ryland 31 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +5.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 13:34EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it44.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.3%average punt
- Q1 12:44NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 48, tiedClose callWent for it · 55.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt55.8%average punt
- Q1 6:12EMU 4th & 12 at EMU 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snapGo for it39.8%−0.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.2%average punt
- Q1 1:54NIU 4th & 9 at EMU 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snapGo for it60.6%−0.525% to convertField goalTheir call61.1%89% to makePunt58.2%−2.9average punt
- Q2 10:27EMU 4th & 8 at NIU 16, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.6% before the snapGo for it23.7%−1.232% to convertField goalTheir call24.8%81% to makePunt16.3%−8.6average punt
- Q2 8:02NIU 4th & 7 at EMU 44, up 14Close callPunted · 72.5% before the snapGo for it72.4%37% to convertField goal71.1%−1.327% to makePuntTheir call72.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 6:55EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snapGo for it25.5%−1.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.6%average punt
- Q2 0:04EMU 4th & 9 at NIU 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snapGo for it21.0%−0.431% to convertField goalTheir call21.4%58% to makePunt17.6%−3.7average punt
- Q3 12:54NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 39, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snapGo for it80.1%−0.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.9%average punt
- Q4 13:02NIU 4th & 20 at EMU 38, up 7Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snapGo for it80.3%−2.510% to convertField goal82.8%38% to makePuntTheir call82.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:15EMU 4th & 7 at NIU 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.2%37% to convertField goal20.0%−0.145% to makePunt17.2%−2.9average punt
- Q4 10:15NIU 4th & 3 at EMU 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.9%53% to convertField goal83.3%−2.645% to makePunt82.3%−3.6average punt
- Q4 3:25NIU 4th & 4 at EMU 7, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.1%41% to convertField goalTheir call91.6%−0.591% to makePunt86.7%−5.4average punt
- Q4 1:12EMU 4th & 7 at NIU 13, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snapGo for it5.9%34% to convertField goalTheir call5.1%−0.885% to makePunt4.1%−1.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:41NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.1%97% to makeGo for two58.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:10NIU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.9%97% to makeGo for two67.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:37EMU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.3%97% to makeGo for two27.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:18NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.9%97% to makeGo for two85.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:14EMU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.7%97% to makeGo for two19.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2649% → 49%
NIUDrive 2DOWNS5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5051% → 51%
Q1 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
51.3%
PENALTY EMU Offside (Merritt,Alex) 5 yards from NIU43 to NIU48. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3FUMBLE2 plays · -18 yds · 0:4249% → 49%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
51.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-21
51.1%
Ben Bryant sacked by Lance Deveaux Jr. for a loss of 21 yards to the EMich 34 Ben Bryant fumbled, recovered by NoIll Raishein Thomas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD8 plays · 34 yds · 3:2152% → 55%
Q1 12:02
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
51.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Liam Soraghan for 5 yds to the EMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:2946% → 44%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 5 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-8
53.8%
Ben Bryant sacked by Dillon Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 34Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
56.1%
Jake Julien punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyrice Richie at the NoIll 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6FG12 plays · 70 yds · 4:1856% → 59%
Q1 6:12
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+5
55.6%
PENALTY EMU Offside (Ramirez,Jose) 5 yards from NIU29 to NIU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
56.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 5 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+22
56.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 22 yds to the EMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7INT TD8 plays · 31 yds · 2:4441% → 32%
Q1 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
59.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 12 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+15
60.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 15 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
59.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 4 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8FG10 plays · 61 yds · 3:3731% → 32%
Q2 14:04
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+10
69.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Donivan Wright for 10 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
69.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 3 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+45
69.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Darius Boone Jr. for 45 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 2:2571% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0730% → 28%
Q2 6:55
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+11
72.1%
Jake Julien punt for 61 yds , Tyrice Richie returns for 11 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11FUMBLE10 plays · 38 yds · 5:1071% → 77%
EMUDrive 12FG12 plays · 25 yds · 1:4126% → 22%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
74.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Donivan Wright for 6 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+7
73.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 7 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+6
73.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 6 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
71.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Donivan Wright for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-2
73.3%
Ben Bryant sacked by Devonte O'Malley for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0679% → 79%
EMUDrive 15TD5 plays · 94 yds · 2:1720% → 35%
Q3 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+45
80.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 45 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
77.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Latrell Fordham for 4 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+42
65.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 42 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1969% → 88%
Q3 10:37
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
68.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 15 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
72.2%
Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete to Travis,Messiah PENALTY EMU Roughing The Passer (Myrick,Terry) 15 yards from EMU41 to EMU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0416% → 34%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Latrell Fordham for 11 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+4
81.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 4 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
80.2%
Bryant,Ben pass incomplete to Beydoun,Hassan PENALTY NIU Holding (Hansen,Jordan) 10 yards from NIU27 to NIU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
66.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 17 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT13 plays · 42 yds · 4:0578% → 82%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
81.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 6 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
83.6%
Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete to Rudolph,Trayvon PENALTY EMU Pass Interference (Paul,Jarrett) 15 yards from NIU46 to EMU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
84.2%
Brown,Antario rush for 5 yards gain to the EMU23 (McGee,Freddie) PENALTY NIU Holding (Zschernitz,Logan) 10 yards from EMU28 to EMU38. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19DOWNS6 plays · 45 yds · 2:4722% → 21%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
78.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 27 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
75.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 15 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
74.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 2 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-8
74.6%
Ben Bryant sacked by Dillon Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+8
78.9%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete pass complete to for 8 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FG17 plays · 58 yds · 6:5085% → 95%
EMUDrive 21FG14 plays · 62 yds · 2:184% → 8%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to DJ Smith for 11 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
95.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 16 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
95.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 4 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+13
95.2%
DJ Smith run for 13 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
94.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 15 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
92.0%
Julien,Jake onside kickoff 14 yards to the EMU49 PENALTY EMU Offside 5 yards from EMU35 to EMU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:18
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)
+15.2
TD · Q3 2:14
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 17 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
-14
TD · Q3 10:37
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 42 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
-12