Try the model
NIU

Northern Illinois 35 at Ball State 21

BALL
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 5, 2014 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:53 · Tyler Wedel punt for 39 yds, downed at the BalSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense−3.6Pregame prior−7.2Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:27: Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 38 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +11.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:41: Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +16.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:58: Anthony Brooks 21 Yd Interception Return (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +14.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:31: Horactio Banks run for 4 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK) — BALL win probability +18.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:45: Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +9.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:50NIU 4th & 1 at BALL 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:13NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:48BALL 4th & 18 at BALL 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:03NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:10BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53NIU 4th & 9 at BALL 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:23BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:27NIU 4th & 10 at BALL 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:42BALL 4th & 11 at NIU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:14NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 21, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:24BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:42NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−4.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:38BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:17NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:50BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:35BALL 4th & 18 at BALL 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−5.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:48NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−3.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:23NIU 4th & 1 at BALL 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.3%−3.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−11.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:47NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:50NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:40BALL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:27BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:41NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:58NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:31BALL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:45NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0660% → 60%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.5%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
40.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 11 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
40.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 15 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
40.7%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
40.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 12 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
40.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
40.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 13 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
40.8%
Hare, Drew pass incomplete to Brown, Da'Ron, PENALTY BALLST pass interference (Holder, Tyree) 15 yards to the BALLST6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.1%
Aregeros Turner run for 6 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:4460% → 61%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
40.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron Brown, broken up by Tyree HolderSimilar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
40.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 2 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+7
40.1%
Aregeros Turner run for 7 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
39.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 9 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:0039% → 41%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
39.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 12 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
39.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
39.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+20
39.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 20 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
39.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+14
39.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 14 yds to the NoIll 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
38.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 7 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0860% → 60%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
39.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-3
39.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
40.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron Brown, broken up by Darius ConawaySimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
40.2%
Tyler Wedel punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:1940% → 39%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
40.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-1
40.4%
Jahwan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+15
39.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 15 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
40.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
40.8%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-8
40.2%
Jack Milas sacked by Perez Ford and Rajshawn Mosley for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 18
OWN 46
0
39.2%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 35 yds , Chad Beebe returns for no gain to the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:4361% → 61%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
39.5%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
39.6%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 9 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
39.2%
Anthony Maddie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
39.1%
Anthony Maddie run for no gain to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
39.2%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 14 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
38.4%
Akeem Daniels run for 3 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
38.3%
Akeem Daniels run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
38.2%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
38.8%
Tyler Wedel punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4839% → 38%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
39.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 4Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
39.0%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
38.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 9
OWN 4
+7
38.2%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 45 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 7 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0463% → 62%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
37.5%
Hare, Drew rush for 3 yards to the BALLST39, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding (Myers, Levon) 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 20
OWN 48
0
38.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+4
38.3%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 16
OPP 48
+7
38.4%
Drew Hare run for 7 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
38.4%
Tyler Wedel punt for 39 yds, downed at the BalSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:2539% → 38%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
38.8%
Jahwan Edwards run for 7 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+4
38.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
38.7%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
38.7%
Horactio Banks run for 3 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+15
38.0%
Milas, Jack pass incomplete to Mabon, KeVonn, PENALTY NORTHERNIL pass interference (Olootu, Mayomi) 15 yards to the BALLST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BALLST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
39.0%
Horactio Banks run for 1 yd to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
38.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Paris LoganSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
38.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
37.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:5262% → 63%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
38.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Akeem DanielsSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
38.4%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+12
38.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 12 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
36.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
37.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+4
37.0%
Aregeros Turner run for 4 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
36.4%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+8
36.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 8 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
36.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
35.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-6
35.9%
Aregeros Turner run for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+13
37.2%
Tyler Wedel punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 10 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Shane Wimann) to the BalSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3937% → 51%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
38.2%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
37.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
37.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 11 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
38.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 13 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
50.6%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 38 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3155% → 55%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
44.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
44.4%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Desroy MaxwellSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+20
45.3%
Drew Hare run for 20 yds to the NoIll 48 Drew Hare fumbled, forced by Sean Wiggins, recovered by BalSt Martez HesterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5151% → 48%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
51.0%
Jack Milas pass incomplete, broken up by Jason MeehanSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
50.8%
Horactio Banks run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
49.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Horactio BanksSimilar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
47.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 46 yds, downed at the NoIll 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:2254% → 53%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
45.7%
Drew Hare run for 7 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+4
45.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
45.6%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 4
OWN 20
-10
45.3%
Hare, Drew pass complete to Brescacin, Juwan for 41 yards to the BALLST39, PENALTY NORTHERNIL pass interference (Brescacin, Juwan) 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+6
46.0%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+5
47.5%
Drew Hare run for 5 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 3
OWN 21
+2
47.3%
Tyler Wedel punt for 40 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for 2 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4051% → 49%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
51.0%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
51.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
50.4%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+4
48.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 45 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 4 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:3154% → 52%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
45.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for no gain to the NoIll 14Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-7
46.1%
Drew Hare sacked by Aaron Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 7Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 17
OWN 7
+5
47.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 17
OWN 7
+5
47.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 12
OWN 12
0
47.9%
Tyler Wedel punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3051% → 51%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
51.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 4
50
+1
52.1%
Jack Milas run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-3
51.0%
Jack Milas pass intercepted Paris Logan return for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
45.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4650% → 48%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
49.9%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
49.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Chris Shillings for 5 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
49.4%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
48.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:0655% → 51%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
45.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 7 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-10
44.1%
Hare, Drew rush for 2 yards to the NORTHERNIL45, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding (Pitt, Tyler) 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+15
48.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 15 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
44.0%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
46.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
47.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
48.7%
Tyler Wedel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2550% → 50%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
50.2%
Horactio Banks run for 17 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
50.9%
Horactio Banks run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
50.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+5
49.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 5 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
49.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 5:5953% → 74%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
47.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
47.2%
Akeem Daniels run for 5 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+6
46.8%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
45.4%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+1
44.6%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+9
45.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 9 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
44.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
43.9%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
44.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
43.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 12 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
42.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 14 yds to the BalSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
42.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd to the BalSt 5Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
42.3%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:4431% → 29%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
31.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 15 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
32.1%
Jack Milas run for no gain to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
31.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-9
30.0%
Milas, Jack pass complete to Belle, Shane for 13 yards to the BALLST42, PENALTY BALLST holding (Schlachter, Jalen) 9 yards to the BALLST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 19
OWN 20
+1
29.7%
Jahwan Edwards run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 18
OWN 21
+9
28.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 39 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 9 yds to the NoIll 30 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Paris Logan) to the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3774% → 71%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
25.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 6 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
25.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-5
25.0%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 40
-5
27.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Sean Folliard) to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
28.9%
Tyler Wedel punt for 64 yds, downed at the BalSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25INT TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2028% → 13%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
28.1%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+5
27.4%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+5
26.3%
Jahwan Edwards run for 5 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
27.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+21
12.7%
Anthony Brooks 21 Yd Interception Return (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:5415% → 34%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
14.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 2 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+12
14.4%
Jahwan Edwards run for 12 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
14.9%
KeVonn Mabon run for 25 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
15.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 7 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
15.5%
Jahwan Edwards run for 4 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.3%
Horactio Banks run for 4 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27FUMBLE
16 plays · 31 yds · 4:4679% → 88%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
21.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 13 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
18.4%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
18.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
18.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
50
0
16.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron Brown, broken up by Tyree HolderSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
50
+8
16.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+7
16.8%
Cameron Stingily run for 7 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
15.5%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
14.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
15.5%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+7
18.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 7 yds to the BalSt 19 Cameron Stingily fumbled, forced by David Moore, recovered by NoIll Tyler Pitt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
13.9%
Stingily, Cameron rush for 19 yards to the BALLST0, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding (Pitt, Tyler) 10 yards to the BALLST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+7
13.9%
Drew Hare run for 7 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 13
OPP 22
-22
12.0%
Drew Hare sacked by Darnell Smith for a loss of 22 yards to the BalSt 44 Drew Hare fumbled, recovered by BalSt Darnell Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1324% → 21%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
24.0%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Anthony BrooksSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
22.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
21.4%
Jack Milas pass intercepted Ben Compton return for no gain to the BalSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 29TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:4088% → 98%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
12.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+25
11.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 25 yds to the BalSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
11.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the BalSt 16Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+14
11.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 14 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.6%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 30FUMBLE
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:043% → 3%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.4%
Jack Milas pass incomplete, broken up by Ben ComptonSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
3.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
2.8%
Jack Milas pass incomplete, broken up by Ben ComptonSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
2.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jahwan Edwards for 10 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
2.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for a loss of 2 yards KeVonn Mabon fumbled, forced by Paris Logan, recovered by NoIll Sean Folliard , return for 9 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5599% → 99%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
1.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-1
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-2
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:31
Horactio Banks run for 4 yds for a TD, (Scott Secor KICK)
+18.9
TD · Q3 3:41
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q4 12:58
Anthony Brooks 21 Yd Interception Return (Christian Hagan Kick)
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com