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NIU

Northern Illinois 14 at Arkansas 52

ARK
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Tyler Wedel punt for 51 yds , D.J. Dean returns for no gain to the Ark 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Home team on offense+18.6Score differential+12.2Pregame prior+12.8Garbage-time factor+3.6Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:07: Darius Philon 14 Yd Fumble Return (John Henson Kick) — ARK win probability +2.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:21: Josh Williams run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +7.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:29: Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK) — NIU win probability +8.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:49: Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 10 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +10.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:34: Brandon Allen run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK) — ARK win probability +3.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 4NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:46NIU 4th & 3 at ARK 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:12ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:07NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:53ARK 4th & 4 at NIU 26, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:08ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:34NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:34NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 33, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:59ARK 4th & 4 at NIU 4, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:56NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 32, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:46ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:07ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:21ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:29NIU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:49ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:34ARK Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:05NIU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:56ARK Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:33ARK Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
75.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+1
75.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 23Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+45
75.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 45 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
75.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
75.0%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+5
75.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 5 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+7
75.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 7 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 14:46
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
75.0%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
75.2%
Alex Collins run for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
75.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Denver Kirkland) to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
75.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+13
75.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 13 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
75.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
75.1%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4FUMBLE RETURN TD
9 plays · -6 yds · 2:2425% → 23%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
75.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (Michael Santacaterina) to the NoIll 10Similar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
75.2%
Drew Hare run for 5 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
75.2%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+6
75.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 6 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
75.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregero Turner for 3 yards to the NIU24, out-of-bounds (Alan Turner), PENALTY NIU illegal motion 5 yards to the NIU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+9
75.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 9 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
75.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-14
77.3%
Darius Philon 14 Yd Fumble Return (John Henson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
77.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
77.3%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
77.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for no gain to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
77.4%
Tyler Wedel punt for 48 yds , D.J. Dean returns for no gain to the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 6:2678% → 86%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
78.3%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
78.3%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+6
78.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 6 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
78.7%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-5
78.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
78.7%
Korliss Marshall run for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+7
78.4%
Brandon Allen run for 7 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
78.8%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+4
78.8%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-8
78.8%
Brandon Allen run for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 42 Brandon Allen fumbled, recovered by Ark Korliss MarshallSimilar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+27
78.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 12 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
78.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to AJ DerbySimilar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
86.3%
Josh Williams run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 0:2115% → 15%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 10 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
85.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Christian Blake for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
85.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 4 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
85.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
85.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Camer Stingily for 3 yards to the NIU48 (Henre' Toliver), PENALTY NIU illegal shift 5 yards to the NIU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+7
85.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 7 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
85.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
85.4%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
85.4%
Tyler Wedel punt for 44 yds, downed at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:3288% → 92%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
87.8%
Korliss Marshall run for 4 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+7
88.0%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
88.3%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 13 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
88.4%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
88.7%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-5
88.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter Henry, PENALTY AR illegal procedure 5 yards to the AR36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+9
88.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 9 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
88.8%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+20
88.7%
Alex Collins run for 20 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
88.8%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-1
88.8%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
88.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
91.8%
John Henson 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:2410% → 20%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
89.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+10
89.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 10 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
89.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 25 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
88.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 8 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+2
88.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
88.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 9 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+5
88.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
79.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:4083% → 95%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
82.7%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+14
82.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 14 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
83.5%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
85.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 5 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+8
85.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to AJ Derby for 8 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
85.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 12 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
85.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Jared Cornelius, broken up by Dechane DuranteSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
85.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 9 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+5
85.2%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
95.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 10 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
92.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
93.1%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the NoIll 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
93.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 18
-5
93.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 13
0
93.3%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 13
0
93.3%
Tyler Wedel punt for 51 yds , D.J. Dean returns for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
95.0%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-2
95.2%
Korliss Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
95.0%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Josh Williams, broken up by Paris LoganSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
94.6%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 45 yds , Chad Beebe returns for no gain to the NoIll 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
94.5%
Anthony Maddie run for no gain to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
94.6%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 1 yd to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
94.6%
Anthony Maddie run for no gain to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
94.6%
Tyler Wedel punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 6:1596% → 100%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.9%
Alex Collins run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
95.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+16
95.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 16 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
96.1%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
96.0%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+14
96.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 14 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
96.1%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+18
96.1%
Jared Cornelius run for 6 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (Marlon Moore) to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
96.1%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
96.1%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the NoIll 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
96.1%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 2Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 8 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.6%
Tyler Wedel run for 1 yd to the NoIll 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:15100% → 100%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
99.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 14 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
99.7%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+8
99.7%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+10
99.7%
Alex Collins run for 10 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.8%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the NoIll 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.7%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.8%
Brandon Allen run for no gain to the NoIll 4Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
99.8%
John Henson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:540% → 1%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
99.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Christian Blake for 9 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
99.8%
Drew Hare run for 19 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.8%
Cameron Stingily run for 7 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+21
99.8%
Cameron Stingily run for 21 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
99.8%
Cameron Stingily run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Luke EakesSimilar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+15
98.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 15 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.9%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 44 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
99.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 10Similar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+16
99.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Luke Eakes for 16 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 2 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros Turner, broken up by Tevin MitchelSimilar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Tyler Wedel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by D.J. Dean at the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
Kody Walker run for 9 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
Kody Walker run for 1 yd to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Jared Cornelius run for 1 yd to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+16
99.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 16 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Korliss Marshall run for 2 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+6
99.9%
Korliss Marshall run for 6 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Korliss Marshall 27 Yd Run (John Henson Kick), (John Henson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22END OF GAME
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
100.0%
Anthony Maddie rush for loss of 1 yard to the NIU17 (Bijhon Jackson;Tevin Beanum), PENALTY AR face mask 15 yards to the NIU33, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+14
100.0%
Jordan Huff run for 14 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Anthony Maddie run for no gain to the NoIll 47 Anthony Maddie fumbled, recovered by NoIll N/ASimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
100.0%
Anthony Maddie run for 10 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
99.9%
Anthony Maddie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
100.0%
Anthony Maddie run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+4
100.0%
Anthony Maddie run for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:49
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 10 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q2 3:29
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Wedel KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q1 0:21
Josh Williams run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Henson KICK)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com