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TOL

Toledo 24 at Northern Illinois 27

NIU
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 11, 2014 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:55 · Tyler Wedel punt for 34 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense+3.9Pregame prior+6.3Garbage-time factor+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score differential+0.8Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:22: Dwight Macon pass complete to Corey Jones for 69 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +13.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:18: Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +11.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:36: Dwight Macon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +18.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 6:33: Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +15.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:14: Dwight Macon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +10.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:59TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:29NIU 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:30TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:46NIU 4th & 4 at TOL 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:01TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 31, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:05TOL 4th & 3 at NIU 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:11NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:50TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:55NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:17TOL 4th & 4 at NIU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−1.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:56NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:36NIU 4th & 2 at TOL 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−6.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:25NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:15TOL 4th & 2 at NIU 40, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−3.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:21NIU 4th & 23 at NIU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−5.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:43TOL 4th & 14 at TOL 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:52NIU 4th & 15 at TOL 36, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:27TOL 4th & 14 at NIU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:10NIU 4th & 5 at TOL 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−14.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:22TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:15NIU 4th & 2 at TOL 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−3.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:03NIU 4th & 12 at TOL 46, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−3.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:24NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:22TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:18NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:36TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:33NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:14TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4540% → 40%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-9
59.8%
Michael Julian sacked by TEAM for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 18 Michael Julian fumbled, recovered by ToledSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+13
59.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
59.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:2560% → 60%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.9%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
59.9%
Akeem Daniels run for 1 yd to the NoIll 36Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
59.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 10 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
60.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 9 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
60.3%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-5
60.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Desroy Maxwell) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 6
50
0
60.2%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 6
50
0
59.8%
Tyler Wedel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4840% → 40%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
59.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
59.8%
Michael Julian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
59.9%
Michael Julian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
60.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the Toled 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:3761% → 61%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
60.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 20 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
60.6%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
60.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 15
OPP 31
-1
60.1%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 16
OPP 32
+12
60.0%
Drew Hare run for 12 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
60.7%
Christian Hagan 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2939% → 39%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
60.6%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 21Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+10
60.8%
Michael Julian pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 10 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
60.5%
Dwight Macon run for no gain to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
61.0%
Nick Ellis punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:1461% → 65%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
60.6%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd to the NoIll 36Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+64
64.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 64 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 4:0737% → 37%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
63.1%
Michael Julian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
63.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+7
63.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
62.9%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
62.7%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
63.5%
Michael Julian run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
50
+39
63.1%
Michael Julian pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 39 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
62.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
62.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 3
-5
63.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
63.6%
Michael Julian pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+4
64.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the NoIll 4Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
62.9%
Jeremiah Detmer 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1965% → 64%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
64.5%
Aregeros Turner run for 13 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
65.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-3
65.2%
Akeem Daniels run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+2
64.3%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
63.9%
Tyler Wedel punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1036% → 34%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
64.0%
Michael Julian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
64.5%
Michael Julian run for 2 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+8
64.9%
Michael Julian run for 8 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
63.7%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-2
63.4%
Michael Julian run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+2
65.4%
Michael Julian run for 2 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+7
66.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 45 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 7 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2567% → 66%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
66.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+1
66.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Luke Eakes for 1 yd to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+7
66.0%
Drew Hare run for 7 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 3
OWN 23
-2
65.5%
Tyler Wedel punt for 34 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:0734% → 33%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
66.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+14
66.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 14 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
65.9%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
66.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 6 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
65.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
67.3%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5469% → 68%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
69.3%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+7
68.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 7 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
69.1%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
68.0%
Tyler Wedel punt for 34 yds, downed at the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:1331% → 45%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
68.7%
Dwight Macon run for 5 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+69
55.5%
Dwight Macon pass complete to Corey Jones for 69 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 3:2160% → 65%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
59.7%
Aregeros Turner run for 12 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
60.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 3 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
61.6%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+13
61.0%
Drew Hare run for 13 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
62.5%
Da'Ron Brown run for 3 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+39
62.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 39 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
63.0%
Cameron Stingily run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 4Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
63.0%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
61.7%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
64.5%
Christian Hagan 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0836% → 35%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.3%
Dwight Macon pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
63.6%
Dwight Macon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
65.3%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2064% → 62%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
64.1%
Drew Hare run for 5 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
64.4%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
63.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Luke Eakes for no gain to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 5
OWN 27
-5
62.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
61.9%
Tyler Wedel punt for 49 yds , Corey Jones returns for no gain to the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:4738% → 39%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+23
62.2%
Dwight Macon run for 23 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
59.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
59.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
59.3%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the NoIll 40Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
61.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:4264% → 80%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
63.8%
Cameron Stingily run for 11 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+61
64.1%
Da'Ron Brown run for 61 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
68.2%
Drew Hare run for 8 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+3
68.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2323% → 41%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
77.5%
Dwight Macon pass complete to Corey Jones for 20 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
76.1%
Dwight Macon pass complete to Corey Jones for 8 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+6
74.9%
Dwight Macon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
75.4%
Dwight Macon run for 13 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
74.0%
Dwight Macon run for 7 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+4
74.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
77.1%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
77.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.1%
Dwight Macon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 10 yds · 2:5567% → 65%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
66.6%
Cameron Stingily run for 7 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+5
68.0%
Drew Hare run for 5 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
67.8%
Akeem Daniels run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+8
66.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 8 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+9
66.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 9 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
69.5%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
69.6%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-15
68.0%
Hare, Drew pass complete to Brown, Da'Ron for 51 yards to the TOLEDO0, PENALTY NORTHERNIL pass interference (Maxwell, Desroy) 15 yards to the NORTHERNIL34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 23
OWN 34
0
65.0%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 23
OWN 34
0
64.5%
Tyler Wedel punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3033% → 31%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
66.6%
Dwight Macon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
66.9%
Dwight Macon run for 3 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 17
-7
68.0%
Dwight Macon sacked by Jason Meehan for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 10Similar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 14
OWN 10
0
69.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:4172% → 66%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
72.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
72.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for no gain to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-7
70.9%
Drew Hare sacked by Ray Bush for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 15
OPP 36
+2
65.9%
Tyler Wedel punt for 26 yds , Corey Jones returns for 2 yds to the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:0331% → 31%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+20
68.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 20 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
67.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
65.2%
Dwight Macon run for 4 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
63.8%
Dwight Macon run for 8 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
63.2%
Dwight Macon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-10
63.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 18
OWN 47
-3
67.3%
Dwight Macon sacked by Corey Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 21
OWN 44
+7
68.0%
Dwight Macon run for 7 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
69.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 3:3571% → 93%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
71.1%
Drew Hare run for 19 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
72.5%
Cameron Stingily run for 5 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+13
74.1%
Cameron Stingily run for 13 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
75.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 13 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
76.6%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
76.7%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+1
75.3%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+7
73.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 7 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
77.1%
Cameron Stingily run for 10 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
77.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 8 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.1%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:028% → 8%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
91.8%
Dwight Macon run for 9 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
90.3%
Dwight Macon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-2
90.7%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
92.1%
Dwight Macon pass complete to Alonzo Russell for no gain to the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4394% → 95%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
94.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
94.1%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
94.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 2
OPP 21
0
95.1%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:535% → 15%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+23
95.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 23 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
95.0%
Dwight Macon pass complete to Justin Olack for 11 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
94.8%
Dwight Macon run for 20 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
94.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+7
95.3%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.4%
Dwight Macon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
95.4%
Dwight Macon pass complete to Justin Olack for 6 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.2%
Dwight Macon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4291% → 95%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
91.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
92.6%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-1
95.3%
Cameron Stingily run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 41 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-5
95.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 12
OPP 46
+2
95.4%
Tyler Wedel punt for 25 yds , Corey Jones returns for 2 yds to the Toled 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
89.2%
Dwight Macon pass complete to Justin Olack for 16 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST down lat. to Kareem Hunt for 5 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:36
Dwight Macon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
-18.1
TD · Q4 6:33
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+15.9
TD · Q2 5:22
Dwight Macon pass complete to Corey Jones for 69 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com