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SIU

Southern Illinois 14 at Northern Illinois 11

NIU
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadSIU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreSIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:33 · Tom Foley punt for 32 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Pregame prior+11.8Home team on offense−7.0Garbage-time factor−3.0Score differential−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:45: Ro Elliott run for 10 yds for a TD (Thomas Burks KICK) — SIU win probability +15.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:13: Kacper Rutkiewicz 62 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Trayvon Rudolph Pass to Rocky Lombardi for Two-Point Conversion) — NIU win probability +24.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:48: Ro Elliott run for 9 yds to the NIU 44 — SIU win probability +13.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:16: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 9 yds to the SIU 37 — NIU win probability +15.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:28: N. Baker takes a knee — SIU win probability +24.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:06SIU 4th & 11 at SIU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47NIU 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:54SIU 4th & 8 at SIU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:46NIU 4th & 8 at SIU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:37NIU 4th & 10 at SIU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:07SIU 4th & 6 at SIU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:27NIU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:04SIU 4th & 8 at SIU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:33NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:35NIU 4th & 6 at SIU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−7.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:09SIU 4th & 10 at SIU 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:55SIU 4th & 2 at SIU 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:17SIU 4th & 11 at SIU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−5.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:17SIU 4th & 11 at SIU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−5.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:58NIU 4th & 5 at SIU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.9%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:27SIU 4th & 9 at NIU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−17.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:21NIU 4th & 26 at NIU 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−4.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:31SIU 4th & 17 at SIU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−6.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1SIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:58SIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:45SIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:13NIU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SIUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:4827% → 27%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
73.5%
Justin Strong run for 9 yds to the SIU 29Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+15
73.4%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Baker,Nic pass incomplete short right to Cox,D'Ante' PENALTY NIU Roughing The Passer (Thomas,Raishein) 15 yards from SIU29 to SIU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
73.3%
Nic Baker pass complete to Izaiah Hartrup for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
50
+3
73.2%
Justin Strong run for 3 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
73.0%
Nic Baker pass incomplete to Jaylen ReedSimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-10
73.1%
(13:29) Shotgun Strong,Justin rush left for 3 yards gain to the NIU44 (Finley,Jacob) PENALTY SIU Holding 10 yards from NIU47 to SIU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
73.2%
Nathan Torney punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:0973% → 72%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
73.1%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Dante Cleveland for a loss of 8 yards to the NIU 12Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+3
72.9%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 15Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+5
72.7%
PENALTY SIU Offside (Cowan,Devin) 5 yards from NIU15 to NIU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+23
72.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 23 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
73.0%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NIU 49Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
73.0%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the SIU 48Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
72.9%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 3
50
0
72.3%
Tom Foley punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SIU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4528% → 28%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
72.1%
Nic Baker run for 1 yd to the SIU 2Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
71.9%
Justin Strong run for 3 yds to the SIU 5Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 5
-2
72.1%
Nic Baker sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the SIU 3Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
72.2%
Nathan Torney punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5973% → 72%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
72.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Davis Patterson for 11 yds to the SIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
72.6%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the SIU 34Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 12
OPP 34
0
72.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 12
OPP 34
-5
71.8%
PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from SIU34 to SIU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+9
71.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 9 yds to the SIU 30Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
71.5%
Jake Seibert 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:4829% → 36%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
71.0%
Nic Baker pass complete to Ro Elliott for 15 yds to the SIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
70.4%
Ro Elliott run for no gain to the SIU 45Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+40
70.7%
Nic Baker pass complete to Aidan Quinn for 40 yds to the NIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
69.9%
Jaelin Benefield run for 7 yds to the NIU 8Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
64.3%
Nic Baker run for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Baumgarte KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 6:1466% → 62%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
65.8%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the NIU 21Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 1
OWN 21
0
66.1%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 21Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+14
64.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 14 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
65.0%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+19
65.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 19 yds to the SIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Davis PattersonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
66.1%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the SIU 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+20
65.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 20 yds to the SIU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
66.9%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the SIU 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
66.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+1
66.2%
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd to the SIU 25Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
62.2%
Jake Seibert 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3039% → 39%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.2%
Nic Baker pass complete to D'Ante' Cox for 3 yds to the SIU 28Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
61.0%
Jaelin Benefield run for 1 yd to the SIU 29Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
61.5%
Nic Baker pass incomplete to Justin StrongSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+19
61.3%
Nathan Torney punt for 53 yds , Kacper Rutkiewicz returns for 19 yds to the NIU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:4061% → 58%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
61.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 1 yd to the NIU 36Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+7
60.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 7 yds to the NIU 43Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+2
61.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete short middle to Carter,Chris PENALTY SIU Pass Interference 2 yards from NIU43 to NIU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
62.0%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 44Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+8
61.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 8 yds to the SIU 48Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
62.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 5
50
0
57.6%
Tom Foley punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dayton Mitchell at the SIU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2344% → 48%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
56.3%
Nic Baker pass complete to Izaiah Hartrup for 5 yds to the SIU 19Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+7
56.0%
Nic Baker pass complete to Izaiah Hartrup for 7 yds to the SIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
55.8%
Nic Baker pass complete to Jaelin Benefield for 6 yds to the SIU 32Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+8
54.9%
Ro Elliott run for 8 yds to the SIU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
54.1%
Nic Baker sacked by George Gumbs for a loss of 1 yard to the SIU 39Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+8
54.9%
Nic Baker pass complete to Ro Elliott for 8 yds to the SIU 47Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-5
54.4%
Nic Baker sacked by Raishein Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the SIU 42Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
52.1%
Nathan Torney punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:4154% → 57%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
53.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 4 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
54.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 7 yds to the NIU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
54.5%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Tim Varga for a loss of 6 yards to the NIU 25Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+17
53.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 17 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
54.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 20 yds to the SIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
55.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 8 yds to the SIU 30Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
56.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:2350% → 50%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
49.6%
PENALTY SIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 7 yards from SIU15 to SIU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 17
OWN 8
-1
49.7%
N. Baker takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2152% → 50%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Antario BrownSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
50.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q3 14:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
49.6%
Tom Foley punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:3553% → 71%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
47.1%
Nic Baker pass complete to Aidan Quinn for 11 yds to the NIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
46.0%
Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 18 yds to the NIU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
45.9%
Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 4 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+14
45.3%
Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 14 yds to the NIU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
29.5%
Ro Elliott run for 10 yds for a TD (Thomas Burks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 6:0336% → 37%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.9%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 26Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
34.8%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
35.3%
Brock Lampe run for 1 yd to the NIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
34.6%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 36Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
32.6%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 37Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+27
31.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 27 yds to the SIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
34.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 7 yds to the SIU 29Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+1
34.4%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the SIU 28Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+14
32.8%
Antario Brown run for 14 yds to the SIU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
33.1%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the SIU 10Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
32.4%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the SIU 10Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
30.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
37.0%
Jake Seibert 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1867% → 67%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
33.0%
Ro Elliott run for 5 yds to the SIU 40Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
30.3%
Nic Baker sacked by Jordan Hansen for a loss of 5 yards to the SIU 35Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
32.3%
Nic Baker pass incomplete to D'Ante' CoxSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
32.7%
Nathan Torney punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 99 yds · 4:4132% → 54%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
31.8%
Brock Lampe run for 4 yds to the NIU 5Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+3
31.1%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 8Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+7
29.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 7 yds to the NIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
29.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Davis Patterson for 6 yds to the NIU 21Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+8
29.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Davis Patterson for 8 yds to the NIU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
29.2%
Gavin Williams run for 9 yds to the NIU 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+6
30.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 6 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
29.5%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Jeffrey Wells for a loss of 6 yards to the NIU 38Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+62
53.6%
Kacper Rutkiewicz 62 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Trayvon Rudolph Pass to Rocky Lombardi for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0451% → 51%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.8%
Jaelin Benefield run for 4 yds to the SIU 29Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
47.6%
Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 4 yds to the SIU 33Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
47.0%
Nic Baker pass incomplete to Vinson Davis IIISimilar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
49.2%
Nathan Torney punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:4451% → 50%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
51.4%
Billy Dozier run for 1 yd to the NIU 32Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
50.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3755% → 56%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
45.1%
Southern Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SIU 17Similar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 17
OWN 17
0
45.1%
Nic Baker pass incomplete to D'Ante' CoxSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 17
OWN 17
0
45.3%
Nic Baker pass complete to Jaelin Benefield for no gain to the SIU 17Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 17
OWN 17
+6
43.8%
Nic Baker pass complete to Vinson Davis III for 6 yds to the SIU 23Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+18
44.5%
Nathan Torney punt for 52 yds , Kacper Rutkiewicz returns for 18 yds to the NIU 43Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+18
44.5%
Nathan Torney punt for 52 yds , Kacper Rutkiewicz returns for 18 yds to the NIU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:0148% → 48%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
47.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 15 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
51.6%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 48Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
50.7%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the SIU 47Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
51.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Davis PattersonSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
48.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:2166% → 69%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
34.1%
Ro Elliott run for 9 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
31.9%
Nic Baker pass incomplete to Izaiah HartrupSimilar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+19
32.2%
Ro Elliott run for 19 yds to the NIU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.4%
Nic Baker pass incomplete to Vinson Davis IIISimilar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
27.9%
Nic Baker pass complete to D'Ante' Cox for 1 yd to the NIU 24Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
27.5%
Nic Baker pass incomplete to Aidan QuinnSimilar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
31.4%
Thomas Burks 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:5942% → 37%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
42.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
41.6%
PENALTY NIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from NIU24 to NIU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 15
OWN 19
-11
41.1%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Tim Varga for a loss of 11 yards to the NIU 8Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 26
OWN 8
0
38.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Gavin WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 26
OWN 8
0
37.1%
Tom Foley punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dayton Mitchell at the SIU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:4374% → 74%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
26.3%
Ro Elliott run for 1 yd to the SIU 47Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
24.3%
Ro Elliott run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 6
50
-5
23.1%
PENALTY SIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from SIU50 to SIU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-6
22.5%
Nic Baker sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the SIU 39Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
26.2%
Nathan Torney punt for 7 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4341% → 32%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
41.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 9 yds to the SIU 37Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
40.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Christion CarterSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+4
39.8%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the SIU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
41.4%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete short left to Johnson,Jalen PENALTY NIU Holding 10 yards from SIU33 to SIU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+8
30.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 8 yds to the SIU 35Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-15
31.8%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Davis Patterson) to the SIU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2893% → 93%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
7.0%
N. Baker takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-1
7.0%
N. Baker takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 22
-1
6.8%
N. Baker takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:28
N. Baker takes a knee
-24.8
TD · Q4 14:13
Kacper Rutkiewicz 62 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Trayvon Rudolph Pass to Rocky Lombardi for Two-Point Conversion)
+24.1
TD · Q3 11:45
Ro Elliott run for 10 yds for a TD (Thomas Burks KICK)
-15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com