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ARST

Arkansas State 19 at Northern Illinois 21

NIU
2023 · Camellia Bowl · Dec 23, 2023 · Cramton Bowl
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:14 · Tom Foley punt for 47 yds, downed at the ARST 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense+12.1Garbage-time factor+6.5Score differential+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Pregame prior−0.9Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:24: Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +4.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:42: Tom Foley pass complete to Kanon Woodill for 32 yds for a TD (Rocky Lombardi pass to Trayvon Rudolph for Two-Point Conversion) — NIU win probability +7.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:01: Dominic Zvada 45 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +5.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:14: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARST win probability +25.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:14: Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the ARST 30 — NIU win probability +11.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q2 13:45ARST 4th & 1 at NIU 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%−1.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−5.8
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:42NIU 4th & 4 at ARST 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:30ARST 4th & 5 at NIU 10, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−6.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:05NIU 4th & 11 at ARST 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:01ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:12ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:05NIU 4th & 3 at ARST 48, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:36ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 13, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:14NIU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:55ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 10, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:55NIU 4th & 4 at ARST 6, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−12.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:24ARST 4th & 10 at NIU 43, down 8
    Close callPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:45NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.8%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:52NIU 4th & 14 at ARST 47, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:09NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    48.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:59ARST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:24NIU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:42NIU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:14ARST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    23.0%−3.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4647% → 51%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
47.3%
Antario Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIU 22Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
47.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 2 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+17
47.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 17 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
48.0%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 41Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
48.1%
Northern Illinois Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NIU 36Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+7
48.0%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the NIU 43Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+12
48.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 12 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+30
48.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 30 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
49.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-3
49.2%
Justin Lynch run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 18Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+18
50.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2INT
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:1550% → 51%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
49.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 36Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
50.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+31
50.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 31 yds to the NIU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
49.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 17 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
49.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Javaughn Byrd return for no gain to the NIU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:2651% → 51%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
50.8%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 7Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+3
51.1%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 10Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 4
OWN 10
0
51.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Trevian Thomas return for no gain to the NIU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
47.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 42 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1248% → 56%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
48.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 18 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
49.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 8 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
49.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 5 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
49.8%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
50.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
49.9%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
50.5%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 11 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (12 Yards) to the ARST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
50.8%
Antario Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 12 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (6 Yards) to the ARST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:1548% → 47%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
51.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the NIU 38Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
51.6%
Raynor, Jaylen rush for no gain to the NORTHERNIL38, PENALTY ARST unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY NORTHERNIL Unsportsmanlike Conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+16
51.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 16 yds to the NIU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
50.9%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 23Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+7
51.2%
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the NIU 16Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+3
52.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 3 yds to the NIU 13Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
52.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the NIU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 3:5856% → 67%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+27
55.7%
Antario Brown run for 27 yds to the NIU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
57.5%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
57.9%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
58.0%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ARST 44Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
58.5%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
59.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kyle Thomas for 5 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+1
59.6%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
59.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+32
66.5%
Tom Foley pass complete to Kanon Woodill for 32 yds for a TD (Rocky Lombardi pass to Trayvon Rudolph for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:0735% → 38%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
64.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 34Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
65.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
65.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
64.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Reagan EalySimilar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
65.1%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
50
+20
65.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 20 yds to the NIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
64.3%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
63.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
64.1%
Cedric Hawkins run for 5 yds to the NIU 10Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
64.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
62.4%
Dominic Zvada 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:1565% → 69%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
65.4%
Antario Brown run for 32 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
67.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+18
68.1%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
68.3%
Justin Lynch run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 23Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 15
OPP 23
0
69.3%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the ARST 23Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+4
69.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 4 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
68.7%
Kanon Woodill 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:4430% → 28%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
69.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
70.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 9 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
69.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
70.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
71.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Reagan EalySimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
71.6%
William Przystup punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:2071% → 72%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.8%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the NIU 27Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
70.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
70.0%
Gavin Williams run for 11 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
72.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for 11 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
73.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
72.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 5 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-28
72.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Samy Johnson return for 28 yds to the ARST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:1729% → 36%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
71.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 6 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+9
69.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 9 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
69.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 16 yds to the NIU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+45
64.1%
Dominic Zvada 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4332% → 31%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
67.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
68.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Miller McCrumbySimilar
Q3 14:12
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
69.3%
William Przystup punt for 55 yds, downed at the NIU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:5570% → 73%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
69.9%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NIU 20Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+6
70.6%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
71.0%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 27Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
71.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the NIU 30Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+15
70.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 15 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
73.4%
Gavin Williams run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 5
50
+2
73.5%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
72.8%
Tom Foley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0928% → 26%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
71.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 15Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-2
71.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 13Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
73.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+7
74.1%
William Przystup punt for 46 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 7 yds to the NIU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5477% → 77%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
76.6%
Antario Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 46Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+2
75.9%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+2
77.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 8
50
0
76.7%
Tom Foley punt for 47 yds, downed at the ARST 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0925% → 22%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
75.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the ARST 7Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+3
76.2%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
77.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
78.1%
William Przystup punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:5082% → 82%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
81.5%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 6
50
+3
82.4%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+35
82.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 35 yds to the ARST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
83.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
84.1%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the ARST 6Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
83.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
82.0%
Kanon Woodill 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:2320% → 18%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
80.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 15 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
79.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
78.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
78.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
78.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
78.5%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
78.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the NIU 43Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
78.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the NIU 37Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-6
78.7%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Raishein Thomas and Jalonnie Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the NIU 43Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
82.5%
William Przystup punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 7:1885% → 92%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
84.7%
Gavin Williams run for 10 yds to the NIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
86.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Billy Dozier for 2 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-5
86.4%
Trayvon Rudolph run for a loss of 5 yards to the NIU 27Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+12
85.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kyle Thomas for 12 yds to the NIU 39Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+4
87.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
89.8%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the NIU 49Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+8
90.3%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
91.5%
Antario Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 48Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-3
93.3%
Gavin Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIU 49Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+4
92.5%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
91.8%
Tom Foley punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:1911% → 30%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+32
89.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 32 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
86.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 23 yds to the NIU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
83.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
84.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 7 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+8
85.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
83.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 17Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+4
84.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the NIU 13Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
58.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-5
70.1%
Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the ARST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:4291% → 95%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
90.8%
Antario Brown run for 12 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:14
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-25.7
TD · Q4 1:14
Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the ARST 30
+11.2
TD · Q2 9:42
Tom Foley pass complete to Kanon Woodill for 32 yds for a TD (Rocky Lombardi pass to Trayvon Rudolph for Two-Point Conversion)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com