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TLSA

Tulsa 22 at Northern Illinois 14

NIU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:57 · Tom Foley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense−23.2Pregame prior+1.1Garbage-time factor−11.4Score differential−9.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:59: Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK) — NIU win probability +12.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: One-score game).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:10: Justin Lynch run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29 — NIU win probability +10.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:34: Justin Lynch run for 29 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +14.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:33: Tahj Gary run for 17 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK) — TLSA win probability +35.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:50: Chase Meyer 22 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +6.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 14:26TLSA 4th & 26 at TLSA 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:24NIU 4th & 2 at TLSA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:02NIU 4th & 6 at TLSA 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:49NIU 4th & 1 at TLSA 15, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−2.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−7.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:59NIU 4th & 2 at TLSA 6, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−1.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−7.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:40TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:26TLSA 4th & 13 at NIU 40, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:09NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−4.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:33TLSA 4th & 4 at NIU 46, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%−4.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:39NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 48, down 2
    Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:07TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 28, down 5
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:43NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.0%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00TLSA 4th & 11 at NIU 18, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−3.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−14.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:34NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 35, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−4.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:50TLSA 4th & 3 at NIU 4, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%−2.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−18.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:57NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:09TLSA 4th & 1 at NIU 49, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 14:02TLSA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:59NIU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:34NIU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:33TLSA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:2533% → 33%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q1 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-16
66.9%
Cardell Williams sacked by Nevaeh Sanders for a loss of 16 yards to the TLSA 9Similar
Q1 14:26
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
66.9%
Angus Davies punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4967% → 67%
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
66.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 6 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
66.9%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
66.9%
Brock Lampe run for no gain to the TLSA 43Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
66.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3INT
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:1634% → 34%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
66.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
66.5%
Cardell Williams pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:4567% → 66%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
66.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Davis Patterson for 9 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
67.0%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
67.0%
Billy Dozier run for 5 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
67.1%
Justin Lynch run for 1 yd to the TLSA 14Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+5
66.9%
Kacper Rutkiewicz run for 5 yds to the TLSA 9Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
66.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Gavin WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
66.4%
Jake Seibert 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FUMBLE
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:0734% → 37%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
66.0%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
65.9%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
65.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 4 yds to the TLSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
65.6%
Jordan Ford run for 7 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
65.0%
Jordan Ford run for no gain to the TLSA 38Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+3
65.2%
Cardell Williams run for 3 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
64.9%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Marquis ShouldersSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
65.0%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Devan Williams for 15 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
64.4%
Cardell Williams sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 16
50
+5
64.9%
Braylin Presley run for 5 yds to the NIU 45Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+26
64.7%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 26 yds to the NIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
63.5%
Jordan Ford run for 13 yds to the NIU 6 Jordan Ford fumbled, recovered by NIU James EsterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6SF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:3865% → 64%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
65.2%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 7Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
64.1%
Rocky Lombardi run for 7 yds for a SAFETY Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by NIU Rocky Lombardi for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:5437% → 44%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
50
+6
62.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
62.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+6
62.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the NIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
62.1%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 12 yds to the NIU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
61.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the NIU 20Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+12
61.3%
Cardell Williams run for 12 yds to the NIU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
61.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the NIU 1Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
25 plays · 75 yds · 10:5556% → 61%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.2%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the NIU 30Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
56.1%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
55.5%
Brock Lampe run for 5 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
55.8%
PENALTY TULSA Offside (Anderson,Joseph) 5 yards from NIU39 to NIU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 5
OWN 44
0
56.3%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 44Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
55.8%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
55.3%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
50
+3
55.4%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
54.9%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+6
54.2%
Ethan Hampton run for 6 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
54.5%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Lippe,J.J.) 5 yards from TULSA38 to TULSA43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+6
52.9%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 6 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+1
54.4%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the TLSA 36Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+12
52.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 12 yds to the TLSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
53.2%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the TLSA 16Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
52.9%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the TLSA 16Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
51.4%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the TLSA 15Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
50.1%
Ethan Hampton run for 1 yd to the TLSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
51.9%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Lippe,J.J.) 5 yards from TULSA14 to TULSA19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 15
OPP 19
0
51.2%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 15
OPP 19
0
50.7%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Gavin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+13
49.0%
Gavin Williams run for 13 yds to the TLSA 6Similar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
61.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0242% → 41%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
57.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 29Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+5
57.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
57.8%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
59.0%
Angus Davies punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
58.8%
Ethan Hampton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:0146% → 42%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
54.0%
Cardell Williams sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the NIU 43Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 16
OPP 43
-10
55.6%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Gary,Tahj rush left for 1 yard gain to the NIU42 (Prophete,Jashon; Finley,Jacob) PENALTY TULSA Holding (Herbert,Kai-Leon) 10 yards from NIU43 to TULSA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 26
OWN 47
+2
56.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 24
OWN 49
+11
57.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 11 yds to the NIU 40Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
58.3%
Angus Davies punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
55.5%
E. Hampton takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:4459% → 55%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.7%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.5%
Antario Brown run for 13 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
59.9%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+6
58.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Christion Carter for 6 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+7
59.3%
Ethan Hampton run for 7 yds to the NIU 35 Ethan Hampton fumbled, recovered by NIU Ethan HamptonSimilar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+9
55.3%
Tom Foley punt for 42 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 9 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2545% → 46%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
55.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+11
53.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 11 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
52.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
52.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+7
54.8%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Jordan Ford for 7 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
54.3%
Angus Davies punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:4856% → 57%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+30
56.1%
Justin Lynch run for 30 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.4%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 42Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
57.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Davis Patterson for 6 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
58.7%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Christion CarterSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
57.1%
Tom Foley punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2147% → 49%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
53.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 37Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
53.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
50.9%
Cardell Williams pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
50.9%
Cardell Williams pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:3662% → 76%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
61.6%
Justin Lynch run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+29
75.8%
Justin Lynch run for 29 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1231% → 29%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
69.4%
Cardell Williams run for 6 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
68.1%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+1
69.7%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the TLSA 28Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+23
71.2%
Angus Davies punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 9 , Kacper Rutkiewicz returns for 23 yds to the NIU 49 Northern Illinois Penalty, Illegal Block (Grayson Barnes) to the NIU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:1571% → 70%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
71.1%
Justin Lynch run for 10 yds to the NIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
71.9%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 18Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+7
71.4%
Justin Lynch run for 7 yds to the NIU 25Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+3
71.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
70.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the NIU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FG
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3637% → 37%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
62.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the NIU 22Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
62.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the NIU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
62.6%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Anthony WatkinsSimilar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
62.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the NIU 18Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
65.1%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Kamdyn BenjaminSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+36
63.3%
Chase Meyer 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:1866% → 65%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
66.0%
Justin Lynch run for 5 yds to the NIU 29Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
66.7%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the NIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
67.1%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NIU 40Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
68.8%
Justin Lynch run for no gain to the NIU 40Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-15
67.9%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Gavin rush right for 4 yards gain to the NIU44 (Anderson,Joseph) PENALTY NIU Personal Foul 15 yards from NIU40 to NIU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+10
65.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 10 yds to the NIU 35Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
64.8%
Tom Foley punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:5035% → 76%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
65.0%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Marquis ShouldersSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
65.3%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 26Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+14
66.6%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Devan Williams for 14 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
61.8%
Bill Jackson run for 15 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
60.4%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Devan Williams for 13 yds to the NIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
58.1%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Ethan HallSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
58.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the NIU 25Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+8
59.6%
Tahj Gary run for 8 yds to the NIU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
24.3%
Tahj Gary run for 17 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2775% → 89%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
24.6%
Tahj Gary run for 11 yds to the NIU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
23.6%
Tahj Gary run for 8 yds to the NIU 15Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+4
20.8%
Tahj Gary run for 4 yds to the NIU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
20.2%
Tahj Gary run for 4 yds to the NIU 7Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+2
19.2%
Tahj Gary run for 2 yds to the NIU 9Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+5
17.4%
(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Cardell pass incomplete short right to Williams,Devan broken up by Prophete,Jashon PENALTY NIU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NIU09 to NIU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
17.2%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Marquis ShouldersSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
10.9%
Chase Meyer 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3916% → 13%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
15.7%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the NIU 33Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
14.5%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Davis PattersonSimilar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
13.6%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
13.0%
Tom Foley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:4290% → 95%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
9.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
7.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 15 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
5.6%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+1
5.3%
Tahj Gary run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 2
50
+1
5.4%
Cardell Williams run for 1 yd to the NIU 49Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
5.0%
Angus Davies punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26INT
11 plays · 57 yds · 1:335% → 6%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
4.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 7 yds to the NIU 20Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+6
4.9%
Ethan Hampton run for 6 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
4.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 5 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+17
4.6%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 17 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
5.3%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
4.9%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 4 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+7
4.9%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Davis Patterson for 7 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
5.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Gavin Williams for 1 yd to the TLSA 40Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+10
5.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 10 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
6.4%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
6.2%
Ethan Hampton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
3.3%
C. Williams takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:33
Tahj Gary run for 17 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
-35.3
TD · Q3 5:34
Justin Lynch run for 29 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
+14.2
TD · Q2 2:59
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com