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NIU

Northern Illinois 27 at Boston College 24

BC
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:44 · Tom Foley punt for 38 yds, downed at the BC 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 55Pregame prior+16.6Home team on offense−0.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:53: Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the NIU 11 — BC win probability +19.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 15:00: Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the BC 1 — NIU win probability +15.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:21: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 7 yds to the NIU 13 — BC win probability +22.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:59: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 22 yds to the NIU 30 for a 1ST down — BC win probability +45.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete — NIU win probability +26.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:36BC 4th & 2 at BC 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:18BC 4th & 19 at BC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:04NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BC 4th & 2 at NIU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−0.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:38BC 4th & 6 at NIU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:44NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:58BC 4th & 6 at BC 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00BC 4th & 17 at NIU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−2.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    50.3%−1.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:15BC 4th & 7 at BC 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:35NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:21BC 4th & 5 at BC 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:23NIU 4th & 7 at BC 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:39NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−16.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:15BC 4th & 10 at BC 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−9.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2075% → 75%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
75.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 7 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+3
75.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
75.3%
Emmett Morehead run for 3 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
75.3%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
75.3%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+8
75.3%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
74.8%
Sam Candotti punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1925% → 25%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
74.8%
Billy Dozier run for 5 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+12
74.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brock Lampe for 12 yds to the NIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
74.7%
Antario Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIU 33Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
74.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
74.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
74.6%
Tom Foley punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:5975% → 73%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
74.7%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
74.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 8 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
74.9%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 46Similar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
74.6%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 15
OWN 46
-10
74.6%
BROOME, Alex rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the NIU48 (JACKSON, Tyler), out of bounds. PENALTY BOS Holding on JOHNSON, Taji enforced 10 yards from the BOS46 to the BOS36 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 25
OWN 36
+4
74.5%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 21
OWN 40
+2
74.4%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to George Takacs for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 19
OWN 42
0
73.4%
Sam Candotti punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:1426% → 27%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
73.6%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 18Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
73.5%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
73.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the NIU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
73.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
73.4%
Gavin Williams run for 8 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+3
73.0%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
72.9%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 1 yd to the NIU 40Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
73.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
73.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
73.2%
Tom Foley punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaden Williams at the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:2674% → 73%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+29
73.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for 29 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
74.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Xavier Coleman for 5 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
74.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 3 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-15
74.4%
Boston College Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
74.3%
Alex Broome run for 7 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
74.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+1
73.7%
Xavier Coleman run for 1 yd to the NIU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+2
73.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
73.9%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NIU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+9
73.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 9 yds to the NIU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
73.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
72.9%
Sam Candotti punt for 35 yds, downed at the NIU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:5428% → 30%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
71.9%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 7Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+12
71.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 12 yds to the NIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
71.4%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the NIU 21Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
71.3%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 21Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+24
71.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 24 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
70.1%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the NIU 49Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-2
69.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 47Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
70.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
70.0%
Tom Foley punt for 38 yds, downed at the BC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4672% → 70%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
71.5%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
71.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
71.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
70.0%
Sam Candotti punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 1:2633% → 40%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
67.3%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
66.1%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 48Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+32
67.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 32 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
66.1%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the BC 20Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
66.2%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+9
66.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 9 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
66.1%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the BC 2Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
59.6%
Northern Illinois Penalty, False Start (Christion Carter) to the BC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:3858% → 53%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
57.9%
Alex Broome run for 4 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
58.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaden Williams for 5 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
59.2%
Alex Broome run for 5 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
59.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Alex Broome for 20 yds to the NIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
60.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
60.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-2
59.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 38Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 12
OPP 38
-5
57.5%
Boston College Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the NIU 43Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
53.1%
Sam Candotti punt for 39 yds, downed at the NIU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:0049% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.0%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
49.8%
Antario Brown run for 13 yds to the NIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
48.8%
Justin Lynch run for no gain to the NIU 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
48.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 14 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
48.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
48.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+21
48.9%
Gavin Williams run for 21 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
37.2%
Justin Lynch run for 13 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:1235% → 32%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
34.7%
GARWO, Patrick rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the BOS31 (ESTER, James). PENALTY BOS Holding on MAHOGANY, Christian enforced 10 yards from the BOS26 to the BOS16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+12
34.2%
Pat Garwo III run for 12 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
34.5%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+16
34.2%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 16 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
36.9%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
36.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
36.6%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
31.5%
Sam Candotti punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:2272% → 75%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
28.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+10
28.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 10 yds to the NIU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
27.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 11 yds to the NIU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
24.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 4 yards to the NIU 25 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by BC Khris BanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0033% → 52%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
33.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the NIU 19Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+4
33.0%
Alex Broome run for 4 yds to the NIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
33.0%
Alex Broome run for 3 yds to the NIU 12Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+1
52.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the NIU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1759% → 63%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
40.7%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the NIU 22Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
41.0%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 6 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+7
40.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 7 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
39.3%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 37Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
38.9%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 39Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
38.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
37.0%
Tom Foley punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaden Williams at the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
41.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 1:2866% → 85%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
33.9%
Kacper Rutkiewicz run for 9 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-1
30.9%
Antario Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+5
31.6%
Brock Lampe run for 5 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
31.1%
Justin Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+5
31.2%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
31.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+15
33.7%
LOMBARDI, Rocky pass to the left incomplete intended for PATTERSON, Davis thrown to the BOS25. PENALTY BOS Pass Interference on JONES, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the BOS23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
30.2%
Gavin Williams run for 7 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+2
30.2%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+8
31.0%
Brock Lampe run for 8 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
30.2%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the BC 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
14.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the BC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD
14 plays · 59 yds · 1:0212% → 33%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
12.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
12.3%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
12.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+10
9.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 10 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
10.4%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Jaden thrown to the NIU22. PENALTY NIU Personal Foul on THOMAS, Raishein enforced 15 yards from the NIU44 to the NIU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
11.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 16 yds to the NIU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+11
10.2%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass to the left incomplete intended for GRIFFIN, Joe thrown to the NIU0. PENALTY NIU Pass Interference on BYRD, JaVaughn enforced 11 yards to the NIU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
11.8%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NIU 7Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
11.7%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Jaden thrown to the NIU0. PENALTY NIU Holding on ASKEW, Kobe enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the NIU7 to the NIU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
11.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the NIU 2Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
11.7%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Roy Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the NIU 20Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 17
OPP 20
0
11.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+7
33.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 7 yds to the NIU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 27 yds · 2:3681% → 88%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
19.5%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the NIU 25Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
20.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
21.4%
Boston College Penalty, Personal Foul (Donovan Ezeiruaku) to the NIU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
17.4%
Trayvon Rudolph run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 38Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+3
18.1%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the NIU 41Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
18.1%
LOMBARDI, Rocky pass to the right incomplete intended for RUTKIEWICZ, Kacper thrown to the NIU50. PENALTY BOS Pass Interference on CHEEK, Jalen enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the NIU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
12.3%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 9
50
+2
11.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
11.3%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the BC 48Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
12.4%
punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 0:2421% → 64%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
20.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for 16 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
18.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
17.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 5 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+10
18.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 10 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
63.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 22 yds to the NIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0550% → 44%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
50.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the NIU 25Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
55.8%
punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaden Williams at the BC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2458% → 53%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
57.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
54.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
52.9%
Sam Candotti punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:1551% → 56%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
48.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 13 yds to the NIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23FG TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
42.2%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the NIU 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
42.2%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the NIU 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
38.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
12.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+16
11.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brock Lampe for 16 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
12.2%
Gavin Williams run for 8 yds to the BC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:59
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 22 yds to the NIU 30 for a 1ST down
+45
KEY PLAY · OT 0:00
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete
-26.5
TD · Q4 8:21
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 7 yds to the NIU 13
+22.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com