Oklahoma State

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1355th
  Defense+0.1435th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.1%59th
  Defense40.0%70th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3274th
  Defense+1.493rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0843rd
  Defense+0.0656th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2551st
  Defense+0.2731st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.2%48th
  Defense47.1%55th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.2%75th
  Defense27.6%79th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8214th
  Defense2.9865th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.1%18th
  Defense19.1%69th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.3%80th
  Defense15.7%38th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oklahoma State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   CARK
2. W
   ASU
3. L
   USA
4. L
   ISU
5. W
   KSU
6. W
   KU
7. W
   WVU
8. W
   CIN
9. W
   OU
10. L
    UCF
11. W
    HOU
12. W
    BYU
13. L
    TEX
14. W
    TA&M

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oklahoma State.

Players, 2023

1. Alan BowmanQB460 plays · +0.221 pts/play · 26th of 250 QBs
   1.90WAR0.89 to 2.94
2. Ollie Gordon IIRB291 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 3rd of 383 RBs
   0.67WAR0.42 to 0.95
3. Brennan PresleyWR118 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 55th of 457 WRs
   0.22WAR0.00 to 0.43
4. Alex HalePK29 plays · +0.325 pts/play · 5th of 113 kickers
   0.18WAR0.10 to 0.24
5. Rashod OwensWR83 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 93rd of 457 WRs
   0.17WAR0.00 to 0.35
6. Leon Johnson IIIWR45 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 152nd of 457 WRs
   0.12WAR0.03 to 0.19
7. Jaden NixonRB43 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 256th of 383 RBs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.12
8. De'Zhaun StriblingWR14 plays · +0.245 pts/play · 253rd of 457 WRs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oklahoma State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  65065056th of 130Roster talent: 650, 56th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  20020036th of 130Recruiting: 200, 36th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  30%30%107th of 128Returning production: 30%, 107th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +6.7+6.742nd of 130SP+ rating: +6.7, 42nd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oklahoma State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.13 of the 0.21 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ISUQ3 2:54 4th & 1 at ISU 35, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.8 pts
2. at UCFQ2 11:49 4th & 2 at midfield, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. vs KUQ4 11:32 4th & 4 at KU 4, down 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
4. vs KUQ3 5:28 4th & 2 at KU 9, down 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
5. vs TA&MQ2 4:39 4th & 1 at OKST 45, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
6. vs KUQ2 0:20 4th & 6 at KU 41, down 1Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.2 pts
7. vs OUQ4 1:53 4th & 9 at OU 43, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
8. vs KSUQ3 12:03 4th & 5 at KSU 36, up 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

7th of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oklahoma State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   CARK
2. W

   ASU
3. L

   USA
4. L

   ISU
5. W

   KSU
6. W

   KU
7. W

   WVU
8. W

   CIN
9. W

   OU
10. L

    UCF
11. W

    HOU
12. W

    BYU
13. L

    TEX
14. W

    TA&M

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Oklahoma State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.86
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.16
• Timeouts−0.09
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.29

Game by game

• CARKW 27-13 vs CARK96% → 99%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +9
• ASUW 27-15 at ASU53% → 98%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +50, Clock +3
• USAL 7-33 vs USA65% → 0%Before kickoff +15 · On the field −65: Scoreboard −62, Clock −2
• ISUL 27-34 at ISU36% → 2%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −35, Clock −1
• KSUW 29-21 vs KSU20% → 97%Before kickoff −30 · On the field +77: Scoreboard +46, Timeouts +3
• KUW 39-32 vs KU36% → 93%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +34, Possession & field position +2
• WVUW 48-34 at WVU41% → 98%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +56, Clock +3
• CINW 45-13 vs CIN72% → 100%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +31
• OUW 27-24 vs OU27% → 95%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +68: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +3
• UCFL 3-45 at UCF52% → 0%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −49, Possession & field position +1
• HOUW 43-30 at HOU68% → 99%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +39, Clock +2
• BYUW 40-34 vs BYU87% → 66%Before kickoff +37 · On the field −21: Timeouts −18, Clock +11
• TEXL 21-49 at TEX13% → 0%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −15
• TA&MW 31-23 vs TA&M46% → 94%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Oklahoma State's side.

Closest call

OKST 21-20 BOIS (2021) - Oklahoma State dropped to a 2.2% win probability before pulling it out.