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KSU

Kansas State 21 at Oklahoma State 29

OKST
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2023 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:55: Alex Hale 34 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +6.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:34: Will Howard pass intercepted by Cameron Epps, returned 35 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +13.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:17: Treshaun Ward run for 11 yds for a TD (W. Howard Run For Two-point Conversion) — KSU win probability +16.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:31: Alex Hale 25 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +7.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:56: Will Howard run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — KSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10KSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:18KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:21OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:04OKST 4th & 11 at KSU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:44OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.0%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:03KSU 4th & 6 at KSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:55OKST 4th & 14 at KSU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−2.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:03OKST 4th & 5 at KSU 36, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:25KSU 4th & 8 at OKST 13, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:47OKST 4th & 6 at KSU 14, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:10KSU 4th & 1 at OKST 13, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−2.8
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−11.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:11OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:49KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.1%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:31OKST 4th & 7 at KSU 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−7.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:17OKST 4th & 1 at KSU 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−3.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:00OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:59KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 7:54OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:59KSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:34OKST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:17KSU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:56KSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4280% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 25Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.7%
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the KSU 26Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
20.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 2 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
21.3%
Jack Blumer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
15 plays · 72 yds · 5:0621% → 27%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
21.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 6 yds to the OKST 34Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+7
21.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 7 yds to the OKST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
21.9%
Brennan Presley run for 8 yds to the OKST 49Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
22.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Josiah JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+4
22.3%
Alan Bowman run for 4 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
22.7%
Alan Bowman run for 7 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
23.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
23.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 5 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
23.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Bray for 12 yds to the KSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
23.8%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
24.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 24Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+11
23.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds to the KSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
24.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 11 yds to the KSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.7%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:0174% → 73%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 6 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
26.3%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.8%
Will Howard pass intercepted Cameron Epps return for no gain to the OKST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1927% → 28%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
27.3%
Jaden Nixon run for 6 yds to the OKST 35Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
28.1%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-1
27.8%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 34Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
27.9%
Wes Pahl punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0972% → 70%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
28.4%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-1
28.5%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 27Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
29.5%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
30.0%
Jack Blumer punt for 45 yds, downed at the OKST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:4630% → 34%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
29.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 30Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
30.4%
Alan Bowman run for 4 yds to the OKST 34Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+9
30.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 9 yds to the OKST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+33
32.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 33 yds to the KSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
32.9%
Brennan Presley pass complete to Alan Bowman for 3 yds to the KSU 21Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
33.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the KSU 20Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
33.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 6
OPP 20
-5
33.1%
Oklahoma State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KSU 25Similar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
33.7%
Alex Hale 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 2:3165% → 71%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
34.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the KSU 15Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
34.9%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 2 yds to the KSU 17Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+8
35.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 8 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+70
36.2%
Will Howard run for 70 yds to the OKST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.5%
Will Howard run for no gain to the OKST 1Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8MISSED FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 5:5932% → 38%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.5%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
31.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Blaine Green for 10 yds to the OKST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
32.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
32.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Bray for 9 yds to the OKST 44Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
33.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the OKST 44Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+4
33.4%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the OKST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
35.5%
Jaden Nixon run for 5 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+45
37.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Bray for 45 yds to the KSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
38.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the KSU 2Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
38.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 4Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
38.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the KSU 4Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 0
OPP 4
+21
38.1%
Alex Hale 21 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Marques SigleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4764% → 61%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
36.0%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 18Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+10
36.6%
DJ Giddens run for 10 yds to the KSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
36.3%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
37.0%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-1
37.1%
Will Howard sacked by Nickolas Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 32Similar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
38.8%
Jack Blumer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 2:5539% → 46%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
38.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 18 yds to the OKST 38 Oklahoma State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Josiah Johnson) to the OKST 23Similar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 7
OWN 23
+8
39.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for 8 yds to the OKST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
39.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Bray for 11 yds to the OKST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+45
41.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 45 yds to the KSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
43.7%
Bowman, Alan pass incomplete to Presley, Brennan, PENALTY OKLAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the KANSASST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 15
OPP 18
-5
43.7%
Oklahoma State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KSU 23Similar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+1
44.3%
Alan Bowman run for 1 yd to the KSU 22Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 19
OPP 22
0
43.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Josiah JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 19
OPP 22
+5
41.6%
Jaden Nixon run for 5 yds to the KSU 17Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+34
46.4%
Alex Hale 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11INT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1653% → 39%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.3%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Jadon JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
47.7%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for no gain to the KSU 25Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-35
61.0%
Will Howard pass intercepted by Cameron Epps, returned 35 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:2840% → 37%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
60.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 11 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.6%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
61.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the KSU 41Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-7
60.5%
Will Howard sacked by Jaleel Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the KSU 34Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
62.8%
Jack Blumer punt for 57 yds, downed at the OKST 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
65.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:2764% → 71%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
64.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 15 yds to the OKST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
65.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
67.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the KSU 49Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+8
67.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 8 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
68.8%
Kansas State Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the KSU 36Similar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 5
OPP 36
0
69.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
69.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Talyn ShettronSimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
69.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+53
70.5%
Alex Hale 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15FUMBLE
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:3031% → 26%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.8%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
68.2%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
69.0%
Phillip Brooks run for 9 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
69.3%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+14
69.9%
DJ Giddens run for 14 yds to the OKST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
69.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 29 yds to the OKST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
69.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 6 yds to the OKST 9Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-2
69.4%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 11Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 6
OPP 11
-5
71.7%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Christian Duffie) to the OKST 16Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+3
73.1%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 3 yds to the OKST 13Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 8
OPP 13
-19
73.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the OKST 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by KSU Will HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:1181% → 89%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
81.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 14 yds to the OKST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+36
83.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for 36 yds to the KSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
84.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for 5 yds to the KSU 13Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+2
85.2%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the KSU 11Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
-3
86.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Braden Cassity for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 14Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
88.9%
Alex Hale 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:1315% → 30%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
84.6%
DJ Giddens run for 14 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
84.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 16 yds to the OKST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
83.6%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
84.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the OKST 29Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+7
85.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the OKST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.4%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Will SwansonSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
85.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 9 yds to the OKST 13Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
86.6%
Will Howard run for no gain to the OKST 13Similar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
87.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the OKST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
70.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 11 yds for a TD (W. Howard Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q3 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
70.5%
Kansas State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the KSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4981% → 80%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
80.8%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 39Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
80.4%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+6
79.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 6 yds to the OKST 45Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
79.7%
Wes Pahl punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1622% → 18%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
78.5%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
79.2%
Will Howard run for 5 yds to the KSU 24Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+2
80.3%
Phillip Brooks run for 2 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
81.7%
Will Howard pass incomplete to DJ GiddensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1284% → 91%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
83.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for 15 yds to the KSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
84.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
84.2%
Brennan Presley run for 3 yds to the KSU 8Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
83.4%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
91.3%
Alex Hale 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2512% → 25%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.6%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
86.3%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
87.0%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 14 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
87.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 20 yds to the OKST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
87.4%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
87.5%
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the OKST 35Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+29
87.7%
Will Howard run for 29 yds to the OKST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.4%
Will Howard run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:2385% → 91%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
84.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 34Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+3
86.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 37Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+14
87.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 14 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
89.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the KSU 49Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+9
89.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
91.1%
Josiah Johnson run for no gain to the KSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4816% → 15%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.6%
Will Howard pass incomplete to DJ GiddensSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
84.7%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+25
86.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 25 yds to the OKST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
82.2%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 35Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
82.5%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Seth PorterSimilar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-28
85.2%
Will Howard pass intercepted Nickolas Martin return for 13 yds to the OKST 44 OK ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the OKST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:1994% → 95%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
93.5%
Alan Bowman run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 27Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+3
93.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 30Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+2
94.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 2 yds to the OKST 32Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
94.8%
Wes Pahl punt for 43 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for no gain to the KSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:516% → 5%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.4%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 8 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
93.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 11 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.6%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
94.9%
Will Howard pass incomplete to RJ Garcia IISimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
95.2%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben SinnottSimilar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
94.8%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:4597% → 97%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 45Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-3
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 48Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 48
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:17
Treshaun Ward run for 11 yds for a TD (W. Howard Run For Two-point Conversion)
-16.6
TD · Q2 0:34
Will Howard pass intercepted by Cameron Epps, returned 35 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q4 8:56
Will Howard run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com