Oklahoma State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1231st
  Defense+0.1928th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.6%28th
  Defense41.0%62nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2365th
  Defense+1.2819th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1047th
  Defense+0.0860th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1634th
  Defense+0.3018th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.3%46th
  Defense45.6%61st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense27.9%12th
  Defense33.1%46th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7536th
  Defense2.7365th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.8%58th
  Defense22.2%75th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.3%30th
  Defense2.0%53rd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oklahoma State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   FSU
2. W
   MOST
3. W
   UTSA
4. W
   TTU
5. W
   ISU
6. W
   KU
7. L
   TCU
8. L
   WVU
9. L
   KSU
10. L
    TEX
11. L
    BAY
12. W
    OU
13. W
    WASH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oklahoma State.

Players, 2014

1. Daxx GarmanQB236 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 127th of 199 QBs
   0.69WAR0.31 to 1.08
2. Mason RudolphQB81 plays · +0.253 pts/play · 146th of 199 QBs
   0.38WAR0.24 to 0.52
3. Desmond RolandRB163 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 49th of 350 RBs
   0.35WAR0.22 to 0.47
4. Tyreek Hill?108 plays · +0.128 pts/play
   0.26WAR0.18 to 0.33
5. J.W. WalshQB38 plays · +0.305 pts/play · 159th of 199 QBs
   0.22WAR0.15 to 0.29
6. Brandon SheperdWR48 plays · +0.167 pts/play · 119th of 469 WRs
   0.15WAR0.08 to 0.21
7. Kip SmithPK66 plays · +0.117 pts/play · 25th of 114 kickers
   0.14WAR0.03 to 0.26
8. David GliddenWR43 plays · +0.179 pts/play · 128th of 469 WRs
   0.14WAR0.09 to 0.21

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oklahoma State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oklahoma State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WASHQ4 13:28 4th & 2 at WASH 42, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
2. vs ISUQ3 4:30 4th & 1 at ISU 17, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
3. at KUQ4 2:04 4th & 2 at OKST 46, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. vs TTUQ4 14:55 4th & 2 at TTU 25, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. vs FSUQ3 3:06 4th & 4 at FSU 42, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. vs TTUQ2 10:25 4th & 1 at OKST 22, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. at TCUQ2 3:56 4th & 2 at OKST 48, down 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs UTSAQ3 2:22 4th & 1 at OKST 15, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

45th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oklahoma State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   FSU
2. W

   MOST
3. W

   UTSA
4. W

   TTU
5. W

   ISU
6. W

   KU
7. L

   TCU
8. L

   WVU
9. L

   KSU
10. L

    TEX
11. L

    BAY
12. W

    OU
13. W

    WASH

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Oklahoma State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.23
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock−0.18
• Timeouts+0.21
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.38

Game by game

• FSUL 31-37 vs FSU11% → 4%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −22, Clock −1
• MOSTW 40-23 vs MOST98% → 98%Before kickoff +48 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +6
• UTSAW 43-13 vs UTSA85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +18
• TTUW 45-35 vs TTU82% → 97%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +22
• ISUW 37-20 vs ISU87% → 99%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +18
• KUW 27-20 at KU91% → 96%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +20, Clock +1
• TCUL 9-42 at TCU25% → 0%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −27
• WVUL 10-34 vs WVU58% → 0%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −57, Clock −2
• KSUL 14-48 at KSU20% → 0%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −22
• TEXL 7-28 vs TEX50% → 1%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −52, Clock −2
• BAYL 28-49 at BAY5% → 0%Before kickoff −45 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −9
• OUW 38-35 at OU9% → 88%Before kickoff −41 · On the field +79: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +18
• WASHW 30-22 vs WASH40% → 97%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +42, Timeouts +3

Points of win probability, from Oklahoma State's side.

Closest call

OKST 21-20 BOIS (2021) - Oklahoma State dropped to a 2.2% win probability before pulling it out.