Oklahoma State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1340th
  Defense−0.0598th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.2%50th
  Defense36.0%96th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2026th
  Defense+1.2462nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0524th
  Defense−0.0897th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2457th
  Defense−0.0195th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.1%54th
  Defense41.7%92nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.8%39th
  Defense25.1%94th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7818th
  Defense2.3999th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.5%19th
  Defense23.5%98th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.7%68th
  Defense21.3%99th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Oklahoma State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MOST
2. W
   TLSA
3. W
   BOIS
4. W
   KSU
5. W
   BAY
6. W
   TEX
7. L
   ISU
8. W
   KU
9. W
   WVU
10. W
    TCU
11. W
    TTU
12. W
    OU
13. L
    BAY
14. W
    ND

Bars above the line: better than expected for Oklahoma State.

Players, 2021

1. Spencer SandersQB485 plays · +0.297 pts/play · 9th of 219 QBs
   2.70WAR1.91 to 3.54
2. Jaylen WarrenRB240 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 24th of 387 RBs
   0.79WAR0.54 to 1.09
3. Tom HuttonP68 plays · +0.222 pts/play · 3rd of 101 punters
   0.28WAR0.13 to 0.44
4. Brennan PresleyWR69 plays · +0.107 pts/play · 158th of 474 WRs
   0.14WAR0.06 to 0.22
5. Dominic RichardsonRB50 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 264th of 387 RBs
   0.13WAR0.10 to 0.17
6. Shane IllingworthQB25 plays · +0.277 pts/play · 192nd of 219 QBs
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.19
7. Dezmon JacksonRB37 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 287th of 387 RBs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.13
8. Tanner BrownPK21 plays · +0.236 pts/play · 36th of 128 kickers
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Oklahoma State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  61461454th of 130Roster talent: 614, 54th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  20020039th of 130Recruiting: 200, 39th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  51%51%101st of 128Returning production: 51%, 101st of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +17.2+17.212th of 130SP+ rating: +17.2, 12th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Oklahoma State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 17 clear-cut ones account for 0.33 of the 0.38 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs MOSTQ4 7:12 4th & 1 at OKST 43, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.0 pts
2. at ISUQ3 6:48 4th & 1 at ISU 15, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.3 pts
3. at TEXQ3 0:48 4th & 2 at TEX 46, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.9 pts
4. vs OUQ4 9:43 4th & 4 at midfield, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.8 pts
5. vs BAYQ4 9:37 4th & 2 at OKST 45, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
6. vs BAYQ4 8:17 4th & 3 at BAY 3, down 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
7. at TTUQ3 9:49 4th & 2 at TTU 2, up 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
8. vs BAYQ4 14:56 4th & 3 at BAY 3, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

6th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Oklahoma State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   MOST
2. W

   TLSA
3. W

   BOIS
4. W

   KSU
5. W

   BAY
6. W

   TEX
7. L

   ISU
8. W

   KU
9. W

   WVU
10. W

    TCU
11. W

    TTU
12. W

    OU
13. L

    BAY
14. W

    ND

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Oklahoma State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.23
• Clock+0.05
• Timeouts+0.09
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.47

Game by game

• MOSTW 23-16 vs MOST98% → 95%Before kickoff +48 · On the field −3: Scoreboard +7
• TLSAW 28-23 vs TLSA82% → 92%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts +3
• BOISW 21-20 at BOIS39% → 4%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −33, Possession & field position −1
• KSUW 31-20 vs KSU64% → 100%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +36
• BAYW 24-14 vs BAY60% → 97%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +34, Timeouts +2
• TEXW 32-24 at TEX40% → 97%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• ISUL 21-24 at ISU28% → 4%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −28, Timeouts −1
• KUW 55-3 vs KU96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• WVUW 24-3 at WVU56% → 100%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +48, Clock +2
• TCUW 63-17 vs TCU76% → 100%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +27
• TTUW 23-0 at TTU75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +31, Clock +1
• OUW 37-33 vs OU58% → 95%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +2
• BAYL 16-21 vs BAY69% → 4%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −66: Scoreboard −58, Clock −3
• NDW 37-35 at ND51% → 94%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +47, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Oklahoma State's side.

Closest call

OKST 21-20 BOIS (2021) - Oklahoma State dropped to a 2.2% win probability before pulling it out.