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OKST

Oklahoma State 32 at Texas 24

TEX
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.3TEX 76.6%Tanner Brown 21 Yd Field GoalAWAY 16 - HOME 24 · Q3 4:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:49 · Tanner Brown 21 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense+8.4Pregame prior+3.1Score differential+3.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:36: Bijan Robinson 13 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick) — TEX win probability +7.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:43: Bijan Robinson 38 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick) — TEX win probability +13.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:16: Brennan Presley 7 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — OKST win probability +22.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:37: Tanner Brown 29 Yd Field Goal — OKST win probability +21.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:18: Spencer Sanders 10 Yd Run (Tanner Brown Kick) — OKST win probability +25.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 8 of 9OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 8:36OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:30TEX 4th & 22 at TEX 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:41OKST 4th & 4 at TEX 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:58TEX 4th & 9 at OKST 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:17OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:00TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 19, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:35OKST 4th & 16 at OKST 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:47TEX 4th & 17 at TEX 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:08OKST 4th & 1 at TEX 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.6
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:47OKST 4th & 8 at TEX 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:40OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:58TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 4, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:49OKST 4th & 4 at TEX 4, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.7%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−6.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:25TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:48OKST 4th & 2 at TEX 46, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−5.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:48TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 23, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−1.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:13TEX 4th & 16 at TEX 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−9.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:37OKST 4th & 11 at TEX 12, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−13.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−23.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:12TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.4%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:08TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:36TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:13OKST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:43TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:16OKST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    37.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:18OKST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−3.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4360% → 62%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 8 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
59.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
59.9%
Casey Thompson run for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+25
60.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 25 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
60.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 17 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
60.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
60.4%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+9
60.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 9 yds to the OKSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 1Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.5%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.1%
Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2439% → 38%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
62.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 8 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
62.1%
Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for 1 yd to the Texas 25 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Morice Blackwell Jr.) to the Texas 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:5962% → 62%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
62.2%
Thompson, Casey pass incomplete to Moore, Joshua, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Imade, Tope) 7 yards to the TEXAS8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 17
OWN 8
0
62.2%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+2
62.2%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 2 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 15
OWN 10
-7
62.2%
Casey Thompson sacked by Tyler Lacy for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 3 TEXAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Casey Thompson) to the Texas 3Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 22
OWN 3
+61
61.9%
Cameron Dicker punt for 51 yds , Brennan Presley returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 45 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the OKSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:4438% → 39%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 3 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-1
62.3%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+8
62.9%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Keondre Coburn for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Keondre Coburn) to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
62.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 12 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
62.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 14 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
61.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 20 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
61.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
61.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
62.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
60.9%
Tanner Brown 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:4361% → 65%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
61.4%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Bijan Robinson) to the Texas 22Similar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 15
OWN 22
0
61.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for no gain to the Texas 22Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+9
61.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+58
60.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Marcus Washington for 58 yds to the OKSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
62.8%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
62.9%
Casey Thompson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 10Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
62.5%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Kelvontay DixonSimilar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
64.7%
Cameron Dicker 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:3336% → 34%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
64.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braden Cassity for 14 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
63.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 40Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
63.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+9
64.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
63.3%
Sanders, Spencer pass complete to Martin, Tay for 13 yards to the TEXAS38, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Sills, Josh) 10 yards to the OKLAST39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+7
64.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 7 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+2
64.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
64.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
65.8%
Tom Hutton punt for 40 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for no gain to the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0866% → 65%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
65.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+1
65.8%
Keilan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 3
OWN 19
0
65.2%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
64.7%
Cameron Dicker punt for 47 yds, downed at the OKSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1835% → 33%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-16
65.1%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 33 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Braden Cassity) to the OKSt 18Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 26
OWN 18
+10
65.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 10 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 16
OWN 28
0
66.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
67.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:5267% → 77%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
66.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 26 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
68.5%
Thompson, Casey pass incomplete to Worthy, Xavier, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Bernard-Converse, Jarrick) 15 yards to the OKLAST25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
68.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+3
69.0%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
76.7%
Bijan Robinson 13 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2826% → 26%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
73.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
74.2%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted D'Shawn Jamison return for no gain to the OKSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11INT TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:4476% → 71%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
76.2%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
76.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+8
76.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 8 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
76.9%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Joshua Moore for 14 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
77.2%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the OKSt 18Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
77.6%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the OKSt 18Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-85
70.5%
Jason Taylor II 85 Yd Interception Return (Tanner Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1769% → 68%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.4%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 24Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-6
69.4%
Casey Thompson sacked by Israel Antwine and Brendon Evers for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
68.6%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
67.8%
Cameron Dicker punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13FG
17 plays · 48 yds · 3:3032% → 35%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
68.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 4 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
68.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
67.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
67.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Danny Godlevske) to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+6
69.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 6 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
68.1%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+9
70.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
50
+2
68.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 2 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+17
67.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Blaine Green for 17 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
66.3%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
68.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaylen WarrenSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+11
70.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 11 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+39
65.0%
Tanner Brown 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
66.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 10 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:5937% → 36%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
63.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braden Cassity for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
50
+2
60.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
60.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan Presley, broken up by Jahdae BarronSimilar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
62.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
64.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5465% → 80%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
64.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
66.0%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
65.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
50
+12
67.3%
Casey Thompson run for 12 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
80.4%
Bijan Robinson 38 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5123% → 20%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
77.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
77.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the OKSt 31Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+2
78.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
79.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4280% → 79%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
79.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Junior Angilau) to the Texas 4Similar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+2
79.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+2
80.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 2 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 9
OWN 8
-4
79.8%
Casey Thompson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 4Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 13
OWN 4
0
79.4%
Cameron Dicker punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the Texas 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:0223% → 23%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
77.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
77.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+15
78.4%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Presley, Brennan, PENALTY TEXAS roughing passer (Thornton, Ray) 15 yards to the TEXAS31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
76.3%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
76.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+24
78.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 24 yds to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.4%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the Texas 8Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
77.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
76.6%
Tanner Brown 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1682% → 81%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
82.0%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 5 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
81.8%
Casey Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
80.8%
Cameron Dicker punt for 48 yds, downed at the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:3119% → 19%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
80.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
80.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 5 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
80.6%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Martin, Tay, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Thompson, Josh) 15 yards to the OKLAST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
79.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
79.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+3
78.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
80.8%
Tom Hutton punt for 27 yds, downed at the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5484% → 83%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
84.0%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
83.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
83.3%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
82.5%
Cameron Dicker punt for 77 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2617% → 44%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
82.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 14 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
82.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+27
80.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 27 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
78.5%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+15
81.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 15 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+5
80.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 5 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
78.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 8 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+2
78.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
78.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
56.2%
Brennan Presley 7 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5167% → 63%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.2%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
66.8%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 12
OWN 29
-4
64.6%
Casey Thompson sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 16
OWN 25
+6
63.3%
Cameron Dicker punt for 44 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 6 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:2636% → 60%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
63.6%
Brennan Presley run for 17 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
59.5%
Brennan Presley pass incomplete to Spencer SandersSimilar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+20
59.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 20 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
55.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+16
55.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Moro Ojomo) to the Texas 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
56.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+2
56.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
58.2%
Spencer Sanders run for no gain to the Texas 7Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 6
OPP 7
-5
61.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Silas Barr) to the Texas 12Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+29
40.4%
Tanner Brown 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1549% → 47%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
49.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
54.3%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for no gain to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
53.1%
Casey Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
46.7%
Casey Thompson run for no gain to the Texas 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:5067% → 95%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
33.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+29
30.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 29 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
4.8%
Spencer Sanders 10 Yd Run (Tanner Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:119% → 10%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
8.6%
Thompson, Casey pass incomplete to Robinson, Bijan, PENALTY OKLAST offside (Martin, Brock) 5 yards to the TEXAS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 5
OWN 29
-13
9.6%
Casey Thompson pass intercepted Tanner McCalister return for 13 yds to the Texas 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:2297% → 97%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
3.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-2
3.3%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+8
3.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 8 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 15
OPP 25
-5
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:18
Spencer Sanders 10 Yd Run (Tanner Brown Kick)
-25.5
TD · Q4 10:16
Brennan Presley 7 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-22.6
FG · Q4 4:37
Tanner Brown 29 Yd Field Goal
-21
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com