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BAY

Baylor 21 at Oklahoma State 16

OKST
2021 · Week 14 · Dec 4, 2021 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:51 · Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds, downed at the Bayl 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense−12.0Pregame prior+1.2Score differential−3.5Garbage-time factor−8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +5.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:29: Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 13 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +14.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:09: Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +16.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:17: Tanner Brown 20 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +12.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15: Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Bayl 1 — BAY win probability +13.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:52OKST 4th & 6 at BAY 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:40BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 30, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:06OKST 4th & 13 at OKST 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:07BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:38OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:34OKST 4th & 6 at BAY 6, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−7.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:05BAY 4th & 10 at OKST 21, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−9.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:29BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 36, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.3%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:29BAY 4th & 22 at OKST 48, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−4.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:55BAY 4th & 9 at OKST 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:47OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:17OKST 4th & 3 at BAY 3, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.9%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−18.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:27BAY 4th & 26 at BAY 22, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−11.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:51OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 31, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:23BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:24OKST 4th & 1 at BAY 1, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−37.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−40.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:21BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:29BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:09OKST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:3731% → 32%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
69.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 22 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
69.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Drake Dabney) to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+10
68.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 10 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+14
68.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 14 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
68.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Yates for 4 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
68.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the OKSt 26 Trestan Ebner fumbled, forced by Malcolm Rodriguez, recovered by OKSt Tyler LacySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 4:1569% → 69%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
68.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Blaine GreenSimilar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
68.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 28 Spencer Sanders fumbled, recovered by OKSt Spencer SandersSimilar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+8
68.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 8 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
68.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
68.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braden CassitySimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+10
68.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 10 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
68.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 8 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
69.0%
Spencer Sanders run for no gain to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+10
68.9%
Dezmon Jackson run for 10 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+26
69.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Bray for 26 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
68.9%
Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 7Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
68.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 6Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
68.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Blaine GreenSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
69.0%
Tanner Brown 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5631% → 31%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
68.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 8 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
68.6%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
68.9%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
69.2%
Issac Power punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2269% → 68%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
68.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Bray for 1 yd to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-33
68.4%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted JT Woods return for 33 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1333% → 36%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
67.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 9 yds to the OKSt 2Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 1
OPP 2
0
67.2%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the OKSt 2Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
64.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 2 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2465% → 65%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
65.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Blaine Green for 2 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
64.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
65.2%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Matt Jones return for no gain to the OKSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:4736% → 43%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
63.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jarrick Bernard-Converse) to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
63.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kody Walterscheid) to the OKSt 17Similar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 5
OPP 17
-8
62.8%
Blake Shapen sacked by Tre Sterling for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+21
62.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 21 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2458% → 56%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
58.1%
Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 24Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-4
57.8%
Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+2
56.1%
Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
55.5%
Tom Hutton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5044% → 46%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
55.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for no gain to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
55.3%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+7
55.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 7 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
54.2%
Issac Power punt for 53 yds, downed at the OKSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1955% → 52%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
54.5%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 7Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 11
OWN 7
-1
53.9%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 6Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 12
OWN 6
0
52.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 12
OWN 6
+41
51.9%
Tom Hutton punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the OKLAST 48 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:5648% → 67%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
51.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 5 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+12
50.9%
Abram Smith run for 12 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
50.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
49.7%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
49.4%
Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+4
49.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the OKSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
48.3%
Blake Shapen sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 15 yards to the OKSt 21 BAYLOR Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Blake Shapen) to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+8
48.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 8 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
33.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 13 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 1:4839% → 43%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+25
39.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Bray for 25 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
40.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
39.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for no gain to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+16
38.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 16 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
40.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 7 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+15
40.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Al Walcott) to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
40.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q2 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
40.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q2 3:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
43.2%
Tanner Brown 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13END OF HALF
16 plays · 60 yds · 3:1862% → 71%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
38.3%
Abram Smith run for 12 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
36.7%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
36.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 5 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
35.3%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
32.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 1 yd to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+17
32.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 17 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
30.1%
Blake Shapen run for 8 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
30.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+5
30.8%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the OKSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
30.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
30.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
27.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
29.2%
Isaiah Hankins 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Korie BlackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14INT
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:3636% → 36%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
36.2%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
36.7%
Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
35.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 7 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
37.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
36.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+17
34.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 17 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
36.0%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
35.5%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Jairon McVea return for no gain to the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3572% → 73%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
28.4%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+5
28.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+6
27.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 6 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
27.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:5632% → 46%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
32.4%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
31.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
32.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
32.7%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+4
31.3%
Brennan Presley run for 4 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+11
28.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
30.2%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
29.8%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Josh Sills) to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+15
29.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Al Walcott) to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
45.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:2963% → 67%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
37.1%
Blake Shapen run for 28 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
34.1%
Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
33.3%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the OKSt 38Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
33.4%
Dillon Doyle run for 2 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
31.9%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-11
31.3%
Tyquan Thornton sacked by Jason Taylor II for a loss of 11 yards to the OKSt 45 BAYLOR Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tyquan Thornton) to the OKSt 45Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 19
OPP 45
-3
32.1%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 22
OPP 48
0
33.2%
Issac Power punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18INT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5833% → 33%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
33.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joe Michalski) to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
33.0%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+10
32.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kalon Barnes) to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
32.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 4 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
32.8%
Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+8
31.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 8 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
32.6%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Brayden Utley return for 15 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2574% → 72%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
25.8%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+5
25.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 5 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 7
OPP 19
-2
25.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Grant Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 21Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
28.4%
Isaiah Hankins 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5531% → 24%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
30.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for no gain to the OKSt 21Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-9
29.2%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Terrel Bernard and Siaki Ika for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 12Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 19
OWN 12
+8
25.5%
Spencer Sanders run for 8 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 11
OWN 20
-5
24.3%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 30 Trestan Ebner fumbled, recovered by OKSt Korie BlackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21FG
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:2334% → 41%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
33.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for no gain to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
33.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 5 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+6
30.6%
Brennan Presley pass complete to Spencer Sanders for 6 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-12
32.7%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Chidi Ogbonnaya for a loss of 12 yards to the Bayl 31 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 22
OPP 31
+14
30.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 14 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+16
30.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 16 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
31.5%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
31.4%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
28.6%
Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 3 Dezmon Jackson fumbled, recovered by OKSt Brennan PresleySimilar
Q4 8:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
41.3%
Tanner Brown 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 2:3470% → 72%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
30.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
28.1%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
24.0%
Blake Shapen sacked by Brock Martin for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+3
26.4%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-13
27.3%
Blake Shapen sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 13 yards to the Bayl 22 Blake Shapen fumbled, forced by Collin Oliver, recovered by Bayl Abram Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 26
OWN 22
0
27.8%
Issac Power punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2730% → 27%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
27.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 3 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
27.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds, downed at the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:2381% → 81%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
19.2%
Abram Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 12
OWN 25
-3
18.9%
Blake Shapen sacked by Brendon Evers for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 22Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+7
20.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 7 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
19.3%
Issac Power punt for 61 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25DOWNS
21 plays · 89 yds · 2:5021% → 17%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
21.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 10 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Blaine GreenSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
20.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 10 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
21.1%
Dezmon Jackson run for 10 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
22.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 3 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+13
22.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 13 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
25.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Blaine Green for 9 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+5
26.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
23.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Blaine Green for 6 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
23.5%
Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+8
22.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 8 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
26.7%
Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
27.0%
Dezmon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+4
22.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mark Milton) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
26.5%
Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 1Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.7%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tyler LacySimilar
Q4 0:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.1%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
3.6%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:09
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q2 5:29
Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 13 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-14.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Bayl 1
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com