Try the model
OKST

Oklahoma State 37 at Notre Dame 35

ND
2021 · PlayStation Fiesta Bowl · Jan 1, 2022 · State Farm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:38 · Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 197Home team on offense−22.7Garbage-time factor−9.3Score differential−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:16: Michael Mayer 7 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +12.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:37: Tay Martin 9 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) — OKST win probability +11.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:52: Tay Martin 5 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) — OKST win probability +14.6 pts (now 38%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:47: Tay Martin 8 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) — OKST win probability +20.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:05: Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +31.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 9OKST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 11:03OKST 4th & 18 at OKST 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00ND 4th & 7 at ND 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:13OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:10OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:15ND 4th & 1 at ND 38, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:24ND 4th & 13 at ND 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:47OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:11OKST 4th & 12 at ND 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:41ND 4th & 9 at OKST 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−6.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:41OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:56ND 4th & 5 at ND 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:22OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:09ND 4th & 4 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:23ND 4th & 10 at ND 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−3.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:06OKST 4th & 17 at ND 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−5.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−13.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:47ND 4th & 6 at ND 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:07OKST 4th & 15 at ND 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−5.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−17.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:38OKST 4th & 1 at ND 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−5.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−4.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:38ND 4th & 6 at ND 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.4%−3.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:16OKST 4th & 3 at ND 8, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%−1.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−9.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:21ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:05ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:46OKST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:04ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:16ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:37OKST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:52OKST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:47OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:05ND Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3049% → 50%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
49.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
50
+15
49.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 15 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
49.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Jarrick Bernard-ConverseSimilar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
49.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 6 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+29
50.2%
Lorenzo Styles Jr. 29 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1150% → 49%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
50.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 14 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
50.1%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the OKSt 39Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
50.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-11
50.8%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 11 yards to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 18
OWN 31
+3
51.5%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 3 yds to the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5752% → 52%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
51.5%
Logan Diggs run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+6
51.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Logan Diggs for 6 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
51.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr., broken up by Christian HolmesSimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
51.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4148% → 47%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
51.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 3 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
52.0%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the OKSt 20Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
52.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
52.8%
Tom Hutton punt for 46 yds , Matt Salerno returns for no gain to the NDame 34 Matt Salerno fumbled, recovered by NDame Matt SalernoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:5753% → 58%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
52.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 10 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
53.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Kevin Austin Jr.) to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 15
OWN 39
-5
53.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Jarrett Patterson) to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+14
53.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 14 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-1
53.9%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+53
57.8%
Chris Tyree 53 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4543% → 42%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
56.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to John Paul RichardsonSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
57.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaylen WarrenSimilar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+2
57.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 2 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
57.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4959% → 60%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
58.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
59.4%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
59.9%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
60.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:1841% → 46%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
59.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 13 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
59.7%
LD Brown run for 2 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+22
59.9%
LD Brown run for 22 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
59.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to LD Brown for 3 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+13
59.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 13 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
58.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 16 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
58.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
53.8%
Jaden Bray 9 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1657% → 56%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.5%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
56.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
56.2%
Jack Coan sacked by Brock Martin for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
55.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3144% → 42%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
56.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 36Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
56.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
56.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+5
57.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 46 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 5 yds to the NDame 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:3658% → 69%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
57.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 5 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+14
57.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 14 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
59.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 7 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+11
59.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 11 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
59.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr.Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
59.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+17
59.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 17 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
60.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 5 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
60.8%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+16
68.7%
Michael Mayer 16 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 1:4734% → 32%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
65.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 6 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
66.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 20 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
65.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
65.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 15 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
64.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-2
65.1%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
67.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+48
68.0%
Tanner Brown 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:2370% → 71%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+33
69.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 33 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
71.4%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
71.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 9 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
70.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 4 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
71.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
71.4%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+2
71.4%
Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
70.5%
Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:5430% → 29%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
69.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+11
69.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
70.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
70.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+1
71.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 1 yd to the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:1972% → 90%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
71.8%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+4
72.2%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
72.7%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+16
72.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 16 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
74.3%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Mayer, Michael, PENALTY OKLAST roughing passer (Martin, Brock) 15 yards to the OKLAST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
74.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 8 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+7
75.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
76.1%
Braden Lenzy run for no gain to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
76.6%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+20
77.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 20 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
77.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr., broken up by Jabbar MuhammadSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
90.2%
Michael Mayer 7 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:3212% → 26%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
87.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 13 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+41
87.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 41 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
85.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 12 yds to the NDame 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.0%
Tay Martin 9 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.7%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 3:5823% → 38%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
77.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 14Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+3
77.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+14
78.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 14 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
77.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+10
77.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 10 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
77.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
77.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 4
50
+6
77.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 6 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
77.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+15
78.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 15 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+25
76.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 25 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
62.0%
Tay Martin 5 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4269% → 69%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
68.6%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
68.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
67.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Deion ColzieSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
68.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2834% → 31%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
66.3%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
66.7%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
66.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
69.0%
Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:0671% → 75%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
70.9%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
71.2%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+10
72.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 10 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
73.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Logan Diggs for no gain to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
73.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+12
72.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Logan Diggs for 12 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
76.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Logan Diggs for 3 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
76.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 4
50
0
76.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 4
50
0
74.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 2:1530% → 55%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
70.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 4 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+7
71.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 7 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
71.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+26
71.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 26 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
68.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+3
67.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
67.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
65.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+12
65.5%
Spencer Sanders run for 12 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
45.2%
Tay Martin 8 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2155% → 52%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.3%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Chris TyreeSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
55.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
53.2%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+24
52.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NOTREDAME 36 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Xavier Watts) to the OKSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:1152% → 56%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
48.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 5 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
47.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
47.0%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Martin, Tay, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Lewis, Clarence) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
45.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 15 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
45.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
45.0%
John Paul Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 16Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 12
OPP 16
-5
47.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 17
OPP 21
+38
44.3%
Tanner Brown 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:4745% → 51%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
45.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 12 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
46.3%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+19
44.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 19 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
50.9%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the OKSt 44 Logan Diggs fumbled, forced by Kolby Harvell-Peel, recovered by OKSt Kolby Harvell-Peel , return for 3 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:2661% → 66%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
38.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
38.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+17
38.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 17 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
35.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 21 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 0
OPP 5
+4
34.2%
Brennan Presley run for 4 yds Brennan Presley fumbled, forced by Drew White, recovered by NDame Ramon HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4843% → 40%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr.Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
43.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Jabbar MuhammadSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+4
41.1%
Jack Coan run for 4 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
39.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:3464% → 73%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
36.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 22 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
35.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+13
33.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 13 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
30.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-2
30.7%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 16Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-15
31.8%
Sanders, Spencer pass complete to Carter, Logan for 14 yards to the NOTREDAME2, PENALTY OKLAST face mask (Woodard, Hunter) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 22
OPP 31
+7
34.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 7 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+41
27.0%
Tanner Brown 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 29INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:1733% → 35%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
33.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
50
0
37.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
50
+16
37.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 16 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
40.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Korie BlackSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
40.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
38.7%
Jack Coan sacked by Brock Martin for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 16
OPP 30
-11
34.6%
Jack Coan pass intercepted Malcolm Rodriguez return for 11 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30FUMBLE
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:2180% → 89%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
20.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 20 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
17.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 6 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
16.5%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
16.5%
Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
18.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
14.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
14.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+29
14.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 29 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
12.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the NDame 10Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-5
10.9%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Josh Sills) to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 14
OPP 15
+4
11.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the NDame 11 Spencer Sanders fumbled, forced by Isaiah Foskey, recovered by NDame Drew WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2626% → 23%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
26.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 4 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
25.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
23.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
22.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr., broken up by Kolby Harvell-PeelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 32FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1690% → 94%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
10.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+1
9.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the NDame 10Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+2
8.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
6.1%
Tanner Brown 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 33TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:074% → 37%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.3%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Logan Diggs, broken up by Malcolm RodriguezSimilar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
4.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
4.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 17 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
4.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Jarrett Patterson) to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 15
OWN 37
0
4.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer, broken up by Tanner McCalisterSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+13
3.7%
Logan Diggs run for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 1
50
+15
4.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 15 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
5.6%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Tyree, Chris, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Rodriguez, Malcolm) 10 yards to the OKLAST25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
5.3%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
36.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 34Uncategorized
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:3688% → 94%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
11.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 13
OPP 46
-4
6.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:05
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+31.3
TD · Q3 2:47
Tay Martin 8 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick)
-20.3
TD · Q3 10:52
Tay Martin 5 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com