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BAY

Baylor 14 at Oklahoma State 24

OKST
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:13 · Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior+10.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:36: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 32 yds for a TD (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +9.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:14: Abram Smith run for 55 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +12.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:04: Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +18.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:57: Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34 — OKST win probability +7.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:10: Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds for a TD (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +7.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 12:13OKST 4th & 1 at BAY 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:43BAY 4th & 16 at BAY 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:11BAY 4th & 18 at OKST 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:47BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 14, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:44OKST 4th & 6 at BAY 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:12BAY 4th & 6 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:42OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:37BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:45BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:53BAY 4th & 15 at OKST 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:46OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 26, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:14BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.5%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:56OKST 4th & 3 at BAY 3, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.7%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−11.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:37OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 45, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:06BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.1%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:55OKST 4th & 10 at BAY 36, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:32BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 12, down 3
    Close callPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:10OKST 4th & 2 at BAY 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−5.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−25.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:06BAY 4th & 10 at OKST 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.7
    28% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:40OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:36OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:14BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:04BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:10OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1360% → 62%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
60.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 21 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
60.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 15 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
60.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
60.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+9
60.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 9 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
60.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaylen WarrenSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
60.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 8 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
60.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+2
60.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
61.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-1
61.0%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 8Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
62.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 8 yds for a TD (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:2638% → 37%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
62.1%
Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+37
62.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 37 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
61.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
61.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
62.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 15
OWN 49
-1
62.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
62.9%
Issac Power punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2063% → 64%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
63.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 7Similar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+1
63.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 8Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+16
63.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 16 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
63.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
63.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-2
63.7%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Bryson Jackson return for 2 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5237% → 36%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
62.6%
Drew Estrada run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+1
62.8%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the OKSt 36Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-8
63.4%
Gerry Bohanon sacked by Jarrick Bernard-Converse and Brendon Evers for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 44Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 18
OPP 44
0
64.4%
Issac Power punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5INT
14 plays · 67 yds · 5:2565% → 67%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
64.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
64.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+5
64.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
65.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 27Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+7
65.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 7 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+25
65.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 25 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
66.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+5
67.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
67.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+3
67.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
67.8%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
68.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
66.8%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted JT Woods return for no gain to the Bayl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4934% → 32%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
66.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
66.4%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 10Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+4
67.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
67.9%
Issac Power punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:5668% → 69%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
67.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 1
50
-2
68.3%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 48Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+4
67.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Blaine Green for 4 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
68.9%
Sanders, Spencer pass complete to Martin, Tay for 35 yards to the BAYLOR13, PENALTY OKLAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the OKLAST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+3
68.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 12
50
+10
68.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 10 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-4
69.0%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
68.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:2131% → 31%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+40
69.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 40 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
67.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-5
68.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+14
69.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 14 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-4
67.2%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 6
50
0
69.4%
Issac Power punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2370% → 68%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
69.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-10
70.0%
Richardson, Dominic rush for 5 yards to the OKLAST31, PENALTY OKLAST holding 10 yards to the OKLAST16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+3
69.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
68.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braden CassitySimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
68.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 50 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for no gain to the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0131% → 29%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
69.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
70.1%
Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
70.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+6
71.3%
Issac Power punt for 41 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:4371% → 82%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
70.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
72.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+6
71.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
72.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 10 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
73.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 12 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
82.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 32 yds for a TD (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2119% → 19%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
80.9%
Bohanon, Gerry pass complete to Sims, Ben for 5 yards to the BAYLOR24, PENALTY BAYLOR illegal touching 0 yards to the BAYLOR19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
81.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+5
81.3%
Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
80.9%
Issac Power punt for 68 yds, downed at the OKSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
81.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
13 plays · 21 yds · 4:5519% → 15%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.0%
Gerry Bohanon run for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
79.7%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
80.8%
Gerry Bohanon run for 5 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
81.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drake Dabney for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+7
81.1%
Gerry Bohanon run for 7 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
81.0%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
83.0%
Gerry Bohanon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 8
50
+1
83.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the OKSt 49Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 7
OPP 49
-5
84.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
85.2%
Issac Power punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0087% → 87%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
86.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
86.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-5
86.8%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Dillon Doyle return for 5 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2217% → 13%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
83.0%
Drew Estrada run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
83.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 12
OPP 33
-3
85.0%
Gerry Bohanon sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 36Similar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 15
OPP 36
0
86.6%
Issac Power punt for 29 yds, downed at the OKSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4788% → 89%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
88.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+4
88.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the OKSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
88.9%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the OKSt 17Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
88.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braden CassitySimilar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+9
88.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
88.9%
Tom Hutton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:1613% → 24%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
87.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 8 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
86.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Drew EstradaSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
87.8%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+55
75.6%
Abram Smith run for 55 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:5980% → 86%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
79.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 21 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
81.6%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Cole Maxwell for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+23
81.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 23 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
83.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braden CassitySimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
83.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+26
82.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 26 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
85.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 5Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
86.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
86.0%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 3Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
86.1%
Tanner Brown 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 2:4414% → 36%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
86.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 11Similar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
86.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+18
86.7%
Abram Smith run for 18 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
85.9%
Abram Smith run for 6 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+44
85.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 44 yds to the OKSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
82.5%
Bohanon, Gerry pass incomplete to Sneed, R.J., PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Bernard-Converse, Jarrick) 15 yards to the OKLAST6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q4 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
82.6%
Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the OKSt 2Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
82.8%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the OKSt 1Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.9%
Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:0872% → 75%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 7 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
73.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
71.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
73.8%
Warren, Jaylen rush for 3 yards to the OKLAST40, PENALTY BAYLOR substitution infraction 5 yards to the OKLAST42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 5
OWN 42
+2
76.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-2
76.4%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 42 Jaylen Warren fumbled, forced by Matt Jones, recovered by OKSt Hunter WoodardSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+3
75.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
74.5%
Tom Hutton punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2431% → 30%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.6%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
69.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 5 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+1
69.0%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
70.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Abram SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0278% → 74%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
78.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
79.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay MartinSimilar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-2
77.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
73.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0829% → 26%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
71.4%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+4
71.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 3
OWN 13
-1
71.9%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 12Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
73.7%
Issac Power punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:1579% → 96%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
78.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 11 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
79.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (TJ Franklin) to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
82.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+19
85.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (13 Yards) to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
85.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
86.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-10
88.8%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Warren, Jaylen, PENALTY OKLAST holding 10 yards to the BAYLOR14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+10
88.5%
Spencer Sanders run for 10 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
96.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds for a TD (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:414% → 3%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
96.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 7 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+8
96.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Ben Sims for 8 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
96.4%
Bohanon, Gerry pass incomplete to Sneed, R.J., PENALTY OKLAST sideline interference 15 yards to the OKLAST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
96.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Drew EstradaSimilar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 10
OPP 43
-4
96.6%
Gerry Bohanon sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:3497% → 97%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 14
OWN 43
-5
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:04
Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-18.9
TD · Q3 3:14
Abram Smith run for 55 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q2 0:36
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 32 yds for a TD (Tanner Brown KICK)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com