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FSU

Florida State 37 at Oklahoma State 31

OKST
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:01 · Kip Smith punt for 30 yds, downed at the OKSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior−6.1Home team on offense−5.2Score differential−1.8Garbage-time factor−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:45: J.W. Walsh pass complete to David Glidden for 55 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +12.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 5:26: Jameis Winston run for 28 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:51: J.W. Walsh run for 24 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +20.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 3:58: Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 50 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:55: J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +21.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 12:58OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:51FSU 4th & 2 at OKST 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:07OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:03FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:04OKST 4th & 8 at FSU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:14OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 38, down 10
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:26FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:47OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:50FSU 4th & 10 at OKST 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−6.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:35FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 30, up 3
    Close callPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:01OKST 4th & 9 at FSU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:06OKST 4th & 4 at FSU 42, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−2.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:51FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 38, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:33FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−6.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:01OKST 4th & 24 at OKST 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−5.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:13FSU 4th & 6 at OKST 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−17.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00FSU 4th & 9 at OKST 35, up 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.5%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:37FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:19FSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:58OKST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:45OKST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:26FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:51OKST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:58FSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:55OKST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4311% → 11%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
10.8%
Desmond Roland run for no gain to the OKSt 19Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
11.0%
Tyreek Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+2
11.2%
J.W. Walsh run for 2 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
11.4%
Kip Smith punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:0489% → 87%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
11.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Christian Green for 11 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
11.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 5 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+5
11.5%
Karlos Williams run for 5 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
11.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad Greene, broken up by Ashton LampkinSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
11.9%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+8
12.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 8 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
12.2%
Karlos Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 28 Karlos Williams fumbled, forced by Jordan Sterns, recovered by FlaStSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+9
12.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 9 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+1
12.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 1 yd to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
13.0%
Roberto Aguayo 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
12.2%
J.W. Walsh pass intercepted for a TD Nate Andrews return for 9 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1512% → 13%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
12.4%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Tyreek Hill for 1 yd to the OKSt 41Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-2
12.7%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Tyreek Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 39Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
12.5%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete, broken up by Mario Edwards Jr.Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
12.5%
Kip Smith punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:4387% → 87%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
12.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 9 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+3
12.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 3 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
12.8%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+10
13.0%
Winston, Jameis pass sacked for loss of 10 yards to the FLORIDAST13 (Ogbah, Emmanuel), PENALTY OKLAST holding (Lampkin, Ashton) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
13.0%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
13.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 9 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
13.2%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+28
13.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 39 yds , Tyreek Hill returns for 28 yds to the OKLAST 30 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the OKSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5413% → 14%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
13.3%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+9
13.1%
Rennie Childs run for 9 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+16
13.2%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Tyreek Hill for 16 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
13.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+15
13.9%
Walsh, J.W. pass incomplete to Seales, Jhajuan, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul (Andrews, Nate) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
14.4%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jeremy Seaton for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
14.5%
Desmond Roland run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
14.2%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
13.8%
Ben Grogan 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7INT
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:1886% → 86%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+62
14.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Christian Green for 62 yds to the OKSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
13.5%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Freddie StevensonSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
13.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+14
13.8%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Seth Jacobs return for 14 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1814% → 14%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
13.8%
Desmond Roland run for 2 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
13.7%
J.W. Walsh run for 4 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
13.7%
J.W. Walsh run for 6 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
14.1%
Desmond Roland run for 2 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+1
14.1%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+3
13.9%
J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+2
14.1%
Kip Smith punt for 52 yds , Rashad Greene returns for 2 yds to the FlaSt 40 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Jarred Haggins) to the FlaSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 2:5085% → 91%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
15.1%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad Greene, broken up by Kevin PetersonSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
15.2%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+10
15.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 10 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
15.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
15.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 10 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+51
15.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 51 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
14.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Nick O'Leary for 9 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
8.8%
Mario Pender run for 11 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0911% → 17%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.1%
Tyreek Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
11.1%
Tyreek Hill run for 11 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
11.5%
Tyreek Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
11.6%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to James Washington for 5 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
11.6%
Desmond Roland run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
11.8%
Walsh, J.W. pass incomplete to Roland, Desmond, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
11.9%
Tyreek Hill run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
12.2%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Brandon Sheperd, broken up by Ronald DarbySimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+22
11.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Tyreek Hill for 22 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
12.3%
J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+7
12.0%
Desmond Roland run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.9%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2385% → 84%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
15.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-7
14.7%
Jameis Winston sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
15.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
16.2%
Cason Beatty punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyreek Hill at the OKSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2816% → 15%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
15.5%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Tyreek Hill for 4 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
16.0%
J.W. Walsh run for no gain to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
15.0%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Jhajuan Seales, broken up by Tyler HunterSimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
14.5%
Kip Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:0485% → 85%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
15.5%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+11
15.5%
Mario Pender run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
14.9%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Ashton Lampkin return for no gain to the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:2316% → 21%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
16.0%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
15.9%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 14 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
17.0%
TEAM pass incomplete for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eddie Goldman) to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
16.7%
Desmond Roland run for no gain to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+37
20.9%
Ben Grogan 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:5483% → 84%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.2%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
17.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 11 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
16.3%
Winston, Jameis pass incomplete to Greene, Rashad, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Lampkin, Ashton) 15 yards to the OKLAST47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+37
15.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 37 yds to the OKSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
15.8%
Karlos Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 16Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 0
OPP 16
0
16.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete, broken up by Emmanuel OgbahSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 0
OPP 16
+6
16.5%
Karlos Williams run for 6 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
16.2%
Roberto Aguayo 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:4916% → 30%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
16.1%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to David Glidden for 19 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
17.1%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+55
29.7%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to David Glidden for 55 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0074% → 73%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
26.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Freddie StevensonSimilar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
26.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 7 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
25.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad Greene, broken up by Emmanuel OgbahSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
27.3%
Cason Beatty punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tyreek Hill at the OKSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1830% → 30%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
30.1%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 12 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
32.5%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 13 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
32.9%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Tyreek HillSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
32.9%
Tyreek Hill run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
33.1%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Jhajuan Seales, broken up by P.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 9
OPP 35
-9
29.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:2877% → 87%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
23.2%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
23.7%
Karlos Williams run for 14 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
22.5%
Karlos Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
23.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Mario Pender for no gain to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+15
24.0%
Winston, Jameis rush for 5 yards to the OKLAST38, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Lampkin, Ashton) 15 yards to the OKLAST28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
12.8%
Jameis Winston run for 28 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:0816% → 17%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
16.4%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 16 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
17.2%
Tyreek Hill run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
18.2%
Tyreek Hill run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
18.5%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
18.3%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
17.2%
Kip Smith punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:4385% → 87%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
14.8%
Mario Pender run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 1
OWN 20
0
13.6%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+9
13.7%
Karlos Williams run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
13.8%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Mario PenderSimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
14.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+4
13.7%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 4 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
13.3%
Cason Beatty punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sheperd at the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3816% → 41%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.3%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
15.9%
Desmond Roland run for 8 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+21
16.2%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Tyreek Hill for 21 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
18.7%
Rennie Childs run for 19 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
20.9%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+1
20.3%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
41.1%
J.W. Walsh run for 24 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 4:0572% → 72%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
27.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 6 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-1
26.8%
Jameis Winston run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+11
25.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 11 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
23.6%
Jameis Winston run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-5
22.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Josue Matias) to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 42
-13
24.4%
Jameis Winston sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 26
OWN 29
+11
27.4%
Karlos Williams run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+4
27.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 35 yds , Tyreek Hill returns for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:2438% → 32%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-14
37.6%
J.W. Walsh sacked by Mario Edwards Jr. for a loss of 14 yards to the OKSt 15 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (J.W. Walsh) to the OKSt 15Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 24
OWN 15
0
35.5%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 24
OWN 15
0
34.2%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Jhajuan Seales, broken up by Tyler HunterSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 24
OWN 15
0
31.9%
Kip Smith punt for 30 yds, downed at the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4279% → 87%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
20.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 21 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
19.9%
Winston, Jameis pass incomplete to O'Leary, Nick, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Barron, Austin) 10 yards to the OKLAST34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 20
OPP 34
0
20.1%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad Greene, broken up by Seth JacobsSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 20
OPP 34
+1
19.9%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the OKSt 33Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 19
OPP 33
+13
20.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 13 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
13.2%
Roberto Aguayo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:1027% → 29%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
27.3%
J.W. Walsh pass complete to Chris Lacy for 5 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
28.9%
J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48 J.W. Walsh fumbled, forced by P.J. Williams, recovered by FlaSt P.J. WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:3790% → 99%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
10.5%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 8
50
+50
1.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 50 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:306% → 29%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
5.9%
Rennie Childs run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
7.7%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+17
6.5%
J.W. Walsh run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
7.7%
Rennie Childs run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.1%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
7.1%
J.W. Walsh pass incomplete to Marcell Ateman, broken up by P.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.6%
J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29DOWNS
12 plays · 21 yds · 1:4894% → 96%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
5.6%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
3.9%
Winston, Jameis pass incomplete to Greene, Rashad, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Lampkin, Ashton) 10 yards to the OKLAST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
3.5%
Karlos Williams run for 10 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
3.2%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
3.0%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+2
3.1%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 4
OPP 30
-5
4.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Jameis Winston) to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
4.0%
Jameis Winston pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:55
J.W. Walsh run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+21.5
TD · Q4 11:51
J.W. Walsh run for 24 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+20.7
TD · Q3 10:45
J.W. Walsh pass complete to David Glidden for 55 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com