2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:00 · Raymond Taylor run for 9 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:49: Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 79 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +3.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:34: Daxx Garman pass complete to Teddy Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +11.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- FG · Q3 9:59: Josh Lambert 39 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +6.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:14: Josh Lambert 43 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +4.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:44: Daxx Garman pass intercepted for a TD Dravon Henry return for 52 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK) — WVU win probability +6.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 10 of 12WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:19OKST 4th & 4 at WVU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.2%48% to convertField goal62.1%−0.138% to makePunt62.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:09OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snapGo for it59.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.8%average punt
- Q1 4:13WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 21, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snapGo for it46.8%−0.351% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.1%average punt
- Q1 2:42OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snapGo for it51.2%−0.933% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.1%average punt
- Q1 0:43WVU 4th & 15 at WVU 9, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snapGo for it47.6%−2.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.9%average punt
- Q2 14:11OKST 4th & 8 at WVU 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snapGo for it49.7%−0.433% to convertField goalTheir call50.1%68% to makePunt46.3%−3.9average punt
- Q2 10:13WVU 4th & 3 at OKST 46, up 11Close callPunted · 51.9% before the snapGo for it52.2%52% to convertField goal50.0%−2.223% to makePuntTheir call51.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 7:02WVU 4th & 9 at WVU 37, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snapGo for it43.2%−1.031% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.2%average punt
- Q2 3:28OKST 4th & 18 at WVU 19, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snapGo for it51.5%−1.911% to convertField goalTheir call53.4%77% to makePunt47.9%−5.5average punt
- Q2 0:50WVU 4th & 6 at OKST 43, up 4Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snapGo for it49.2%40% to convertField goal48.7%−0.528% to makePuntTheir call48.4%−0.8average punt
- Q2 0:15OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 18, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snapGo for it48.6%−1.357% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.9%average punt
- Q3 9:59WVU 4th & 5 at OKST 22, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snapGo for it49.4%−0.340% to convertField goalTheir call49.7%72% to makePunt40.3%−9.4average punt
- Q3 7:45OKST 4th & 5 at WVU 44, down 7Close callPunted · 42.4% before the snapGo for it43.2%41% to convertField goal40.5%−2.727% to makePuntTheir call42.6%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:37WVU 4th & 11 at OKST 46, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snapGo for it67.4%−1.227% to convertField goal66.3%−2.223% to makePuntTheir call68.6%average punt
- Q4 14:34OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it30.2%−0.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.9%average punt
- Q4 10:14WVU 4th & 9 at OKST 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.1% before the snapGo for it74.4%−1.231% to convertField goalTheir call75.6%64% to makePunt66.0%−9.6average punt
- Q4 7:27OKST 4th & 5 at WVU 37, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.8%42% to convertField goal15.9%−0.940% to makePunt14.8%−2.0average punt
- Q4 5:40WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 47, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snapGo for it85.7%−2.020% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q4 3:21OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 40, down 17Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.9%average punt
- Q4 2:00OKST 4th & 1 at WVU 49, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:00OKST 4th & 2 at WVU 32, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%57% to convertField goal0.5%−0.251% to makePunt0.5%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 10:29WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.2%97% to makeGo for two39.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:49WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.4%97% to makeGo for two42.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:34OKST Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.3%97% to makeGo for two56.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:44WVU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 3:12WVU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%−0.397% to makeGo for two99.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOKSTDrive 1DOWNS8 plays · 37 yds · 2:2158% → 58%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.0%
Daxx Garman pass complete to James Washington for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
58.1%
Daxx Garman pass complete to James Washington for 18 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+3
58.3%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Austin Hays for 3 yds to the WVirg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2TD5 plays · 62 yds · 1:3142% → 44%
OKSTDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:1156% → 56%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.4%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Jeremy Seaton for 11 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+3
56.2%
Daxx Garman run for 3 yds to the OKSt 42 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
56.0%
Kip Smith punt for 48 yds , Jaylon Myers returns for no gain to the WVirg 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4TD4 plays · 90 yds · 1:1144% → 48%
OKSTDrive 5INT9 plays · 50 yds · 1:4053% → 52%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
52.8%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 11 yds to the OKSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
52.4%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Tyreek Hill for 16 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
52.6%
Daxx Garman pass complete to David Glidden for 14 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
52.6%
Daxx Garman pass complete to James Washington for 12 yds to the WVirg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+1
52.1%
Daxx Garman pass intercepted Dravon Henry return for 1 yd to the WVirg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2950% → 50%
OKSTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2751% → 48%
Q1 2:42
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+52
48.0%
Kip Smith punt for 52 yds , Jaylon Myers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5352% → 53%
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-7
47.6%
Trickett, Clint pass complete to White, Kevin for 10 yards to the WESTVIR24, PENALTY WESTVIR holding (Glowinski, Mark) 7 yards to the WESTVIR7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 14
-5
47.3%
Clint Trickett sacked by Emmanuel Ogbah for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 9 Clint Trickett fumbled, forced by Emmanuel Ogbah, recovered by WVirg Marquis Lucas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 15
OWN 9
-2
46.9%
Nick O'Toole punt for 45 yds , Tyreek Hill returns for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9FG7 plays · 32 yds · 1:2148% → 49%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
47.9%
Daxx Garman pass complete to David Glidden for 17 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 38 yds · 3:4251% → 55%
Q2 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+12
47.5%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 12 yds to the WVirg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
46.9%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Adam Pankey) to the WVirg 26Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
44.6%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Dreamius Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 43Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+11
45.4%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 11 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
45.0%
Nick O'Toole punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyreek Hill at the OKSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11TD6 plays · 89 yds · 1:3446% → 57%
Q2 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
57.2%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Teddy Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2347% → 47%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
53.4%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 15 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
51.7%
Clint Trickett sacked by James Castleman for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 30Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+7
52.4%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 7 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13MISSED FG9 plays · 74 yds · 3:2352% → 51%
Q2 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+25
52.0%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Tyreek Hill for 10 yds to the OKSt 21 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Roughing Passer (KJ Dillon) to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+38
53.0%
Daxx Garman pass complete to James Washington for 38 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+12
56.0%
Daxx Garman pass complete to David Glidden for 12 yds to the WVirg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 8
OPP 9
-10
54.7%
Daxx Garman sacked by Dontrill Hyman and Edward Muldrow for a loss of 10 yards to the WVirg 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 2:3050% → 52%
OKSTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2850% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17FG14 plays · 53 yds · 4:5751% → 62%
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
49.0%
Wendell Smallwood run for 22 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
46.5%
Smallwood, Wendell rush for no gain to the WESTVIR47, PENALTY WESTVIR holding (Orlosky, Tyler) 10 yards to the WESTVIR37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+4
48.4%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Kevin White for 4 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+11
47.8%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 11 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+8
46.1%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 8 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
45.3%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 5 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+2
43.8%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Andrew Buie for 2 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
43.6%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Dustin Garrison for 2 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 2:0540% → 41%
WVUDrive 19PUNT16 plays · 53 yds · 7:0163% → 67%
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-10
36.2%
Clint Trickett sacked by Vili Leveni for a loss of 10 yards to the WVirg 5 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Clint Trickett) to the WVirg 5Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
32.9%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 13 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+9
31.9%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 9 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
29.9%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Dreamius Smith for no gain to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 11
OPP 46
+30
32.8%
Nick O'Toole punt for 30 yds, downed at the OKSt 16 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (NA) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5334% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21FG11 plays · 37 yds · 4:0172% → 83%
Q4 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+14
28.0%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Jordan Thompson for 14 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
25.0%
Trickett, Clint pass incomplete to Myers, KJ, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Flowers, Tre) 9 yards to the OKLAST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+5
24.5%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 5 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22DOWNS11 plays · 38 yds · 2:4717% → 16%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Brad Lundblade) to the OKSt 20Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
18.3%
Daxx Garman pass complete to David Glidden for 10 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+13
16.9%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 13 yds to the WVirg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
19.7%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Austin Hays for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23PUNT10 plays · 9 yds · 1:4087% → 89%
OKSTDrive 24INT TD6 plays · 19 yds · 0:529% → 1%
OKSTDrive 25DOWNS6 plays · 15 yds · 1:131% → 1%
WVUDrive 26TD1 play · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27DOWNS9 plays · 25 yds · 3:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:34
Daxx Garman pass complete to Teddy Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q4 4:44
Daxx Garman pass intercepted for a TD Dravon Henry return for 52 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
-6.5
FG · Q3 9:59
Josh Lambert 39 yd FG GOOD
-6.4