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CIN

Cincinnati 13 at Oklahoma State 45

OKST
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:23 · Wes Pahl punt for 34 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Home team on offense+30.0Pregame prior+4.1Score differential+21.7Garbage-time factor+12.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:35: Myles Montgomery run for 63 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK) — CIN win probability +4.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:54: Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 15 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +11.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:03: Ollie Gordon II run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +10.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:15: Brennan Presley run for 1 yd for a TD Cincinnati Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jowon Briggs) declined (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +3.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:54: Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Aaron Turner for 21 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CIN win probability +1.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:08CIN 4th & 3 at OKST 5, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:16OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:46CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:16OKST 4th & 15 at OKST 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:02CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:55OKST 4th & 10 at CIN 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:03CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:43OKST 4th & 4 at CIN 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:04OKST 4th & 7 at CIN 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:15CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:56CIN 4th & 7 at OKST 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52CIN 4th & 10 at OKST 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:52CIN 4th & 10 at OKST 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:23OKST 4th & 11 at CIN 39, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:14CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 10, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:41OKST 4th & 12 at CIN 35, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:39CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:02OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:35CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:54OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:03OKST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:15OKST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:54CIN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:41OKST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:58OKST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:4572% → 72%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
71.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for 11 yds to the OKST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the OKST 47Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
71.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Braden Cassity for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 7
50
+21
71.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 6 yds to the CIN 44 for a 1ST down Cincinnati Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Jack Dingle) to the CIN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
72.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 29 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
Q1 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
72.0%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Edenfield,Ian) 5 yards from Cin03 to Cin08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:4728% → 28%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.8%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
71.9%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+53
72.0%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 53 yds to the OKST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
71.5%
Aaron Turner run for 1 yd to the OKST 11Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+4
71.5%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the OKST 7Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+2
71.7%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the OKST 5Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
71.9%
Carter Brown 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:4572% → 72%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
72.4%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Bowman,Alan pass incomplete deep left to Johnson III,Leon broken up by Harris,Justin PENALTY Cin Pass Interference (Harris,Justin) 15 yards from OSU20 to OSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
72.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 38Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
72.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 40Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+2
72.5%
Alan Bowman run for 2 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
72.4%
Wes Pahl punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CIN 16 , Braden Smith returns for 5 yds to the CIN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:2228% → 27%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
72.5%
Myles Montgomery run for 11 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
72.5%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Jones,Emory pass complete short middle to Smith,Braden for 19 yards to the Cin46 (Daniels,Kendal) PENALTY Cin Holding (Tinsley,Dartanyan) 10 yards from Cin27 to Cin17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 20
OWN 17
0
72.6%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+6
72.7%
Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the CIN 23Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+3
73.0%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
73.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2573% → 72%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Leon Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
72.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
72.7%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ollie Gordon IISimilar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 10
OWN 35
-5
72.4%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Robertson,Parker) 5 yards from OSU35 to OSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
72.3%
Wes Pahl punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:3327% → 31%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
72.8%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+7
72.7%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the CIN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
72.7%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 37Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+63
68.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 63 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7FUMBLE
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:5569% → 70%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
69.3%
Brennan Presley run for 2 yds to the OKST 20Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+8
69.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 8 yds to the OKST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
69.4%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the OKST 28Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
69.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 3 yds to the OKST 31Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+9
68.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 9 yds to the OKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
69.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
69.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 45Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+29
69.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 29 yds to the CIN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
70.5%
Brennan Presley run for 8 yds to the CIN 18Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 2
OPP 18
0
70.5%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
69.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the CIN 17 Ollie Gordon II fumbled, recovered by CIN Jack Dingle (13:30) Shotgun Gordon,Ollie rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Cin17 fumbled by Gordon,Ollie at Cin16 forced by Pace,Deshawn recovered by Cin Dingle,Jack at Cin17, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1832% → 32%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
67.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the CIN 19Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+5
67.5%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+14
67.6%
Emory Jones run for 14 yds to the CIN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
66.3%
Emory Jones sacked by Nickolas Martin for a loss of 9 yards to the CIN 29Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 19
OWN 29
0
67.2%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+8
67.7%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the CIN 37Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
67.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds , Brennan Presley returns for no gain to the OKST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9FG
7 plays · 77 yds · 0:5968% → 69%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
67.9%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Bowman,Alan pass incomplete deep left to Presley,Brennan broken up by Pace,Deshawn PENALTY Cin Holding (Phillips,Eric) 10 yards from OSU12 to OSU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
68.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+67
67.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 67 yds to the CIN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
70.3%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
70.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Leon Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
69.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Leon Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
69.4%
Alex Hale 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4031% → 31%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.2%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 11 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
68.3%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 39Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
67.9%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
68.0%
Emory Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
69.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 2:5270% → 70%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
69.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for 17 yds to the OKST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
70.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for 3 yds to the OKST 39Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+22
70.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 22 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
71.7%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
71.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 6 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
71.4%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Leon Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+8
69.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 8 yds to the CIN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
72.0%
Alan Bowman run for 7 yds to the CIN 18Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
72.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for no gain to the CIN 18Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+4
71.1%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the CIN 22Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
69.7%
Alex Hale 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:2132% → 33%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
68.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+26
68.4%
Aaron Turner run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
50
+1
65.2%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the OKST 49Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
65.2%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the CIN 48Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+8
67.5%
Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the OKST 44 Emory Jones fumbled, recovered by OKST Collin Oliver (00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Jones,Emory rush middle for 8 yards gain to the OSU44 fumbled by Jones,Emory at OSU44 forced by Latu,Nathan recovered by OSU Oliver,Collin at OSU44, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:1671% → 70%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
70.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 4
50
0
71.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jake SchultzSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 4
50
0
70.1%
Alan Bowman pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0133% → 34%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
67.2%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the CIN 46Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+9
66.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 9 yds to the OKST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3831% → 30%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.8%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.9%
Emory Jones run for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
67.9%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
69.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:1070% → 82%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
70.2%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the OKST 36Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
70.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for 7 yds to the OKST 43 pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+42
71.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 42 yds to the CIN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
82.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 15 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1320% → 21%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.2%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.4%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 24Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
81.5%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
79.5%
Emory Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:2883% → 93%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
82.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
82.9%
Brennan Presley run for no gain to the CIN 29Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+20
82.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 20 yds to the CIN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:5610% → 8%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.0%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
89.7%
Emory Jones pass complete to Payten Singletary for 16 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.5%
Emory Jones run for no gain to the CIN 46Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
89.8%
Corey Kiner run for 16 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
90.5%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the OKST 37Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+2
90.7%
Emory Jones run for 2 yds to the OKST 35Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
91.3%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
91.6%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:2893% → 98%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
93.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 23 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.7%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+39
93.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 39 yds to the CIN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the CIN 5Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
94.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 4 yds to the CIN 1Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.8%
Brennan Presley run for 1 yd for a TD Cincinnati Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jowon Briggs) declined (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:063% → 2%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.4%
Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
97.3%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
97.5%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
97.7%
Emory Jones run for 3 yds to the CIN 39Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+13
97.8%
Emory Jones pass complete to Braden Smith for 13 yds to the OKST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.9%
Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
97.9%
Evan Prater run for 1 yd to the OKST 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+1
98.2%
Shaun Thomas run for 1 yd to the OKST 48Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
98.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 11Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
98.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:3998% → 99%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
98.4%
run for 8 yds to the OKST 3 fumbled, recovered by OKST Jaden Nixon (14:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Oklahoma St. rush middle for 8 yards loss to the OSU03 fumbled by Oklahoma St. at OSU03 recovered by OSU Nixon,Jaden at OSU03, End Of Play.Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 18
OWN 3
+43
98.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Leon Johnson III for 43 yds to the OKST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Leon Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
98.6%
Ollie Gordon II run for 16 yds to the CIN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
98.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-5
98.8%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Michalski,Joe) 5 yards from Cin36 to Cin41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+2
98.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 2 yds to the CIN 39Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
98.7%
Oklahoma State Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
98.6%
Wes Pahl punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
98.8%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 5Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+5
98.9%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the CIN 10Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
98.9%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incomplete to Shaun ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
98.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKST 41 , Brennan Presley returns for no gain to the OKST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24MISSED FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:2399% → 99%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
98.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 16 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
98.9%
Ollie Gordon II run for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+1
99.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 1 yd to the CIN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
99.1%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
99.1%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the CIN 35Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
99.1%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden NixonSimilar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+52
99.1%
Alex Hale 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:401% → 3%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.3%
Aaron Turner run for 8 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
99.3%
Shaun Thomas run for 5 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.3%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incomplete to Xzavier HendersonSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
99.3%
Braden Smith run for no gain to the CIN 48Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+16
99.3%
Brady Lichtenberg run for 16 yds to the OKST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
99.3%
(04:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Lichtenberg,Brady pass incomplete short left to Wiggins,Dee PENALTY OSU Face Mask (Kelley,Aden) 15 yards from OSU36 to OSU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
97.5%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Aaron Turner for 21 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.7%
Ollie Gordon II run for 75 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Shaun Thomas run for 3 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
99.7%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Evan Prater for 5 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.7%
Shaun Thomas run for 1 yd to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Shaun Thomas run for no gain to the CIN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.8%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+26
99.9%
Elijah Collins run for 26 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29END OF GAME
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Shaun Thomas run for 1 yd to the CIN 19Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+13
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Evan Prater for 13 yds to the CIN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incomplete to Evan PraterSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg run for 7 yds to the CIN 39Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg run for 4 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Caleb Schmitz for 4 yds to the CIN 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Shaun Thomas run for 5 yds to the OKST 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:54
Alan Bowman pass complete to Brennan Presley for 15 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q3 9:03
Ollie Gordon II run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
+10.4
TD · Q1 3:35
Myles Montgomery run for 63 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
-4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com