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USA

South Alabama 33 at Oklahoma State 7

OKST
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+12OKST 15.8%Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds for a TD(Alex Hale KICK)AWAY 23 - HOME 7 · Q4 12:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:14 · Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Home team on offense−22.1Score differential−13.2Pregame prior+3.1Garbage-time factor−10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:01: Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 39 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +6.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:44: La'Damian Webb run for 17 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — USA win probability +7.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:03: Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 57 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +12.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:14: Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +12.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:04: Diego Guajardo 42 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +3.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 12 of 12USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:04OKST 4th & 10 at USA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:18USA 4th & 6 at OKST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:19OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:14OKST 4th & 15 at OKST 43, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:44USA 4th & 11 at USA 32, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−3.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:44USA 4th & 11 at USA 32, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−3.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:11OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 29, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:11OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 29, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:05USA 4th & 5 at USA 48, up 16
    Close callPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:03OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 32, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:18OKST 4th & 17 at OKST 18, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−6.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:16USA 4th & 6 at USA 43, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:01OKST 4th & 27 at OKST 25, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−5.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:01OKST 4th & 27 at OKST 25, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−5.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:23USA 4th & 8 at USA 45, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:14OKST 4th & 2 at USA 2, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−4.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:37USA 4th & 6 at USA 29, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:04USA 4th & 10 at OKST 24, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−3.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:56OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 23, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:12OKST 4th & 17 at OKST 25, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 1:01USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:44USA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:03USA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:14OKST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:04USA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:5665% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
65.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 8 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
65.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Bray for 5 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
65.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 14 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
65.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
65.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
65.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ollie Gordon IISimilar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
65.1%
Hudson Kaak punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 6:4635% → 36%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
65.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USA 15Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+6
65.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 6 yds to the USA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
65.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
65.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
65.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
65.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 35Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+11
65.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 11 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
65.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass complete short right to Ivory,Javon for 2 yards to the USA48 (Benson,Xavier) PENALTY OSU Holding (Black,Korie) 10 yards from USA46 to OSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
64.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the OKST 43Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
64.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the OKST 42Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+17
65.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 17 yds to the OKST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
64.9%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 1 yd to the OKST 24Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
64.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the OKST 21Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
64.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
63.6%
Diego Guajardo 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5264% → 62%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
63.5%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the OKST 28Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
63.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
63.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
62.4%
Wes Pahl punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 30 , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the USA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:1837% → 44%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
63.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
63.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
63.5%
Carter Bradley run for 5 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
62.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
62.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass complete short left to Lacy,Caullin for 8 yards to the OSU48 (Rawls,Lyrik; Daniels,Kendal) PENALTY USA Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Ivory,Javon) 5 yards from USA44 to USA39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+12
63.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 12 yds to the OKST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
62.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the OKST 46Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+7
62.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the OKST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
56.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 39 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1156% → 55%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.2%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the OKST 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.5%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the OKST 27Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
54.8%
Alan Bowman pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
47.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 17 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 3:3050% → 47%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.4%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the OKST 29Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
50.6%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the OKST 34Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
51.0%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
51.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Jaden Bray for 10 yds to the OKST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
51.8%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the OKST 48Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-10
51.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bowman,Alan pass complete deep right to Shettron,Talyn for 34 yards to the USA18 (Robinson,Marquise), out of bounds PENALTY OSU Holding (Johnson,Josiah) 10 yards from OSU48 to OSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 20
OWN 38
0
50.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Rashod Owens for no gain to the OKST 38Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 20
OWN 38
+5
50.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ollie Gordon II for 5 yds to the OKST 43Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
47.1%
Wes Pahl punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:3056% → 61%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
43.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 18Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+4
43.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 22Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+11
44.0%
Carter Bradley run for 11 yds to the USA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
43.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 34Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
43.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 2 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
39.2%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
39.4%
punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 26Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
39.4%
Jack Martin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3344% → 41%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
43.8%
Gunnar Gundy pass incomplete to Blaine GreenSimilar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
43.8%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 2 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-4
43.5%
Gunnar Gundy sacked by Quentin Wilfawn for a loss of 4 yards to the OKST 29Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Wes Pahl punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 28Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Wes Pahl punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0665% → 67%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
34.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
34.8%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the USA 47Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+1
34.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 1 yd to the USA 48Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
33.3%
Jack Martin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0239% → 36%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
39.3%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the OKST 15Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+15
39.1%
Gunnar Gundy run for 15 yds to the OKST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
39.8%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the OKST 32Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
39.6%
Gunnar Gundy pass incomplete to Talyn ShettronSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
39.4%
Oklahoma State Penalty, Chop Block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
36.3%
Wes Pahl punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:0070% → 82%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
29.8%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 2 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
29.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jay'juan TownsendSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+57
17.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 57 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4526% → 27%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.2%
Gunnar Gundy pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.0%
Gunnar Gundy run for 6 yds to the OKST 31Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-13
26.4%
Gunnar Gundy sacked by Jamie Sheriff for a loss of 13 yards to the OKST 18Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+3
27.1%
Wes Pahl punt for 49 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 3 yds to the USA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14Uncategorized
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:1883% → 83%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
17.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
16.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:3982% → 86%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
17.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+15
17.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 15 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
17.2%
South Alabama Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Carter Bradley) to the USA 30Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 19
OWN 30
+1
17.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 31Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+17
18.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 17 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-5
18.5%
PENALTY USA False Start 5 yards from USA48 to USA43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
14.0%
Jack Martin punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16PUNT
13 plays · 21 yds · 4:1519% → 10%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
19.0%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the OKST 8Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-4
18.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gordon,Ollie rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU12 (Sheriff,Jamie) PENALTY OSU Holding (Brooks Jr.,Jason) 4 yards from OSU08 to OSU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
18.9%
Gunnar Gundy pass incomplete to Talyn ShettronSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+21
18.9%
Gunnar Gundy run for 21 yds to the OKST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.5%
Gunnar Gundy run for 1 yd to the OKST 26Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
19.5%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Brennan Presley for 7 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
20.4%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Jaden Bray for 9 yds to the OKST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
20.9%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Brennan Presley for 1 yd to the OKST 43Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-10
20.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gundy,Gunnar pass complete short middle to Shettron,Talyn for 2 yards to the OSU45 (Miller,James) PENALTY OSU Holding (Cooper,Dalton) 10 yards from OSU43 to OSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 19
OWN 33
0
19.5%
Gunnar Gundy pass incomplete to Rashod OwensSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 19
OWN 33
-8
19.3%
Gunnar Gundy sacked by Brock Higdon for a loss of 8 yards to the OKST 25Similar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 27
OWN 25
0
10.1%
Wes Pahl punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 29Similar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 27
OWN 25
0
10.1%
Wes Pahl punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 4:3892% → 95%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
8.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 10 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
8.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
8.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 33Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+10
8.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 10 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-14
7.8%
Carter Bradley sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 14 yards to the USA 29 Carter Bradley fumbled, recovered by USA James Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 24
OWN 29
+5
8.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 19
OWN 34
+11
8.4%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 11 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
5.3%
Jack Martin punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18TD
19 plays · 84 yds · 6:097% → 16%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
6.5%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 3 yds to the OKST 19Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+11
6.5%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 11 yds to the OKST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
6.5%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
6.6%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 6 yds to the OKST 39Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
6.7%
Gunnar Gundy run for 1 yd to the OKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
6.7%
Gunnar Gundy pass incomplete to Josiah JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
6.6%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Talyn Shettron for 15 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
7.1%
Gunnar Gundy run for no gain to the USA 45Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+16
7.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 16 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
5.9%
Gunnar Gundy pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
5.7%
Gunnar Gundy pass complete to Jaden Bray for 10 yds to the USA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
6.0%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the USA 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+3
6.0%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the USA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
6.0%
PENALTY OSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from USA09 to USA14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+8
5.7%
Gunnar Gundy run for 8 yds to the USA 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.0%
Gunnar Gundy pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
5.8%
Ollie Gordon II run for 4 yds to the USA 2Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.8%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3793% → 94%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.2%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the USA 25Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
7.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
6.4%
Jack Martin punt for 47 yds, muffed by OSU Brennan Presley, recovered by USA Travis Drosos, returned for no gain to the OKST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3395% → 97%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
5.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the OKST 20Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
5.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the OKST 19Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
5.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 5
OPP 19
-5
6.7%
PENALTY USA False Start (Carney,Malachi) 5 yards from OSU19 to OSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
2.8%
Diego Guajardo 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:085% → 5%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.3%
Garret Rangel pass incomplete to Josiah JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
5.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gordon,Ollie rush middle for 8 yards gain to the OSU33 (Miller,James; Banks,Yam) PENALTY OSU Holding (Michalski,Joe) 10 yards from OSU25 to OSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
5.1%
Garret Rangel run for 8 yds to the OKST 23Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
5.0%
Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
4.7%
Wes Pahl punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:5298% → 100%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
2.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+65
0.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 65 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
Q4 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
0.3%
PENALTY USA False Start (Gavin,Reid) 5 yards from OSU03 to OSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
0.3%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the OKST 24Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+8
0.3%
Garret Rangel pass complete to Jaden Bray for 8 yds to the OKST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
0.3%
Garret Rangel pass incomplete to Jaden BraySimilar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
0.3%
Garret Rangel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-7
0.3%
Garret Rangel sacked by Brock Higdon for a loss of 7 yards to the OKST 25Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 17
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
Wes Pahl punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 28 , Caullin Lacy returns for 6 yds to the USA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 28 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
0.3%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 7 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
0.3%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 4 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
0.3%
PENALTY USA False Start 5 yards from USA39 to USA34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+5
0.3%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 5 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
0.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
50
0
0.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
50
+8
0.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 8 yds to the OKST 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-2
0.1%
D. Trotter takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:03
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 57 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-12
TD · Q4 12:14
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Hale KICK)
+12
TD · Q2 14:44
La'Damian Webb run for 17 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com