Boston College

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1561st
  Defense+0.2014th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.4%54th
  Defense42.9%41st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2442nd
  Defense+1.3716th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2292nd
  Defense+0.1138th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1327th
  Defense+0.396th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.1%56th
  Defense47.6%48th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense28.5%35th
  Defense32.3%26th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3279th
  Defense3.0358th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.3%64th
  Defense16.8%48th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.6%88th
  Defense12.9%7th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Boston College allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   NIU
2. W
   HC
3. L
   FSU
4. L
   LOU
5. W
   UVA
6. W
   ARMY
7. W
   GT
8. W
   CONN
9. W
   SYR
10. L
    VT
11. L
    PITT
12. L
    MIA
13. W
    SMU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Boston College.

Players, 2023

1. Tommy CastellanosQB410 plays · +0.296 pts/play · 11th of 250 QBs
   2.27WAR1.38 to 3.17
2. Kye RobichauxRB132 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 45th of 383 RBs
   0.38WAR0.25 to 0.50
3. Lewis BondWR44 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 166th of 457 WRs
   0.11WAR0.02 to 0.20
4. Alex BroomeRB56 plays · +0.105 pts/play · 219th of 383 RBs
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.15
5. Dino TomlinWR23 plays · +0.167 pts/play · 234th of 457 WRs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.12
6. Patrick Garwo IIIRB50 plays · +0.070 pts/play · 274th of 383 RBs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.10
7. Emmett MoreheadQB15 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 227th of 250 QBs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08
8. Jeremiah FranklinTE11 plays · +0.171 pts/play · 152nd of 212 TEs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Boston College's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  65065055th of 130Roster talent: 650, 55th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  19019050th of 130Recruiting: 190, 50th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  39%39%93rd of 128Returning production: 39%, 93rd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −5.9−5.981st of 130SP+ rating: −5.9, 81st of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Boston College's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs HCQ4 1:58 4th & 4 at HC 43, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.3 pts
2. vs UVAQ4 2:11 4th & 2 at UVA 24, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.8 pts
3. at SYRQ4 7:35 4th & 4 at SYR 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
4. at SYRQ4 11:38 4th & 4 at BC 31, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.3 pts
5. at LOUQ2 0:33 4th & 9 at LOU 30, down 28Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
6. vs CONNQ2 1:40 4th & 10 at CONN 31, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts
7. vs FSUQ2 13:22 4th & 3 at FSU 3, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. vs FSUQ4 5:19 4th & 2 at FSU 7, down 9Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

27th of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Boston College's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   NIU
2. W

   HC
3. L

   FSU
4. L

   LOU
5. W

   UVA
6. W

   ARMY
7. W

   GT
8. W

   CONN
9. W

   SYR
10. L

    VT
11. L

    PITT
12. L

    MIA
13. W

    SMU

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Boston College's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.87
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock+0.19
• Timeouts−0.17
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.20

Game by game

• NIUL 24-27 vs NIU75% → 12%Before kickoff +25 · On the field −63: Scoreboard −44, Timeouts −20
• HCW 31-28 vs HC75% → 95%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +1
• FSUL 29-31 vs FSU5% → 7%Before kickoff −45 · On the field +2: Scoreboard −16, Clock −1
• LOUL 28-56 at LOU18% → 0%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −21
• UVAW 27-24 vs UVA63% → 95%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +31, Timeouts +1
• ARMYW 27-24 at ARMY46% → 96%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +49: Scoreboard +50, Clock +3
• GTW 38-23 at GT35% → 99%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +59, Clock +3
• CONNW 21-14 vs CONN85% → 95%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +19, Possession & field position +1
• SYRW 17-10 at SYR46% → 91%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +48, Possession & field position +2
• VTL 22-48 vs VT45% → 0%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −48, Clock −1
• PITTL 16-24 at PITT47% → 2%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −2
• MIAL 20-45 vs MIA18% → 0%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −24, Clock −1
• SMUW 23-14 vs SMU19% → 97%Before kickoff −31 · On the field +78: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +3

Points of win probability, from Boston College's side.

Closest call

ME 17-38 BC (2022) - Boston College dropped to a 4.2% win probability before pulling it out.