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MIA

Miami 45 at Boston College 20

BC
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2023 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:52 · Sam Candotti punt for 29 yds, downed at the MIA 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense+0.1Pregame prior−26.7Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:49: Henry Parrish Jr. 15 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick) — MIA win probability +4.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:00: Colbie Young 10 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick) — MIA win probability +4.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:21: Henry Parrish Jr. 2 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick) — MIA win probability +7.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:46: Thomas Castellanos 21 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick) — BC win probability +6.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:49: Jacolby George 4 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick) — MIA win probability +4.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:55BC 4th & 1 at MIA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:29MIA 4th & 1 at BC 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:52BC 4th & 11 at BC 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:26BC 4th & 3 at BC 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:32MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:32BC 4th & 6 at BC 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:33MIA 4th & 8 at BC 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:23BC 4th & 8 at BC 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:30BC 4th & 3 at MIA 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:24MIA 4th & 4 at BC 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:18BC 4th & 5 at BC 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:28MIA 4th & 2 at BC 16, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:36MIA 4th & 2 at BC 8, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:55BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:29MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:49MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:00MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:21MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:46BC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:49MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:50BC Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:07MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5818% → 22%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
18.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 11 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
18.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for 6 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
18.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
19.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 9 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-6
19.6%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard line Boston College Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Thomas Castellanos) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 7
50
+40
19.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 40 yds to the MIA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
20.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the MIA 5Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
20.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for no gain to the MIA 5Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
20.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 4 yds to the MIA 1Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.2%
Kye Robichaux 1 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
17 plays · 67 yds · 7:1678% → 77%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
22.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
22.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 35Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+8
22.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Cam McCormick for 8 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
23.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Cam McCormickSimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
23.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 11 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
23.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
23.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+16
23.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Riley Williams for 1 yd to the BC 42 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Personal Foul (Sione Hala) to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
23.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Cam McCormick for 3 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
24.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the BC 23Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-10
25.1%
Van Dyke, Tyler pass complete to Horton, Isaiah for 14 yards to the BOSTONCOLL9, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Mauigoa, Francis) 10 yards to the BOSTONCOLL33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 16
OPP 33
+15
26.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 15 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+5
26.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
25.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 10 yds to the BC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
26.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3125% → 25%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
25.1%
Alex Broome run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 34Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
25.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
24.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for no gain Lewis Bond fumbled, forced by James Williams, recovered by BC Alex Broome at BC34.Similar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
25.1%
Sam Candotti punt for 29 yds, downed at the MIA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:5875% → 79%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
24.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 39Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
24.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 9 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
24.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 25 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
24.3%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 3 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+9
24.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 9 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
24.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Riley WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
20.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. 15 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1422% → 22%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 7 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
23.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the BC 32Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
22.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Jaedn SkeeteSimilar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
22.2%
Sam Candotti punt for 39 yds, downed at the MIA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4778% → 77%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
22.0%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 4 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
21.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
22.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
22.9%
Dylan Joyce punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaden Williams at the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5423% → 22%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
23.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
22.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the BC 31Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+1
22.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the BC 32Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
21.5%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:2578% → 85%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
21.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 13 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
20.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 45Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+19
20.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 19 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
19.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
20.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
20.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+24
21.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 24 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
19.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the BC 10Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
19.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
15.2%
Colbie Young 10 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3116% → 16%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
15.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 15 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
16.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
16.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
16.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Dino TomlinSimilar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
15.9%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 29 yds, downed at the MIA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:5485% → 94%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
15.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 22 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
13.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+15
13.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 15 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
13.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+28
13.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 28 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. 2 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11END OF HALF
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:1610% → 15%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
10.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Alex Broome for 10 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
10.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+19
9.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 19 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
14.8%
Castellanos, Thomas pass pass intercepted by Williams, James at the MIAMI0, Williams, James return 55 yards to the BOSTONCOLL45, PENALTY BOSTONCOLL holding (Kendall, Drew) off-setting, PENALTY MIAMI Holding (Mauigoa, Francisco) off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1793% → 94%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
7.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+19
7.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 19 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
6.6%
Fletcher Jr., Mark rush for 6 yards to the BOSTONCOLL43, PENALTY MIAMI holding (McCoy, Matthew) 10 yards to the MIAMI41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+14
6.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 14 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-4
6.0%
Tyler Van Dyke run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 49 Tyler Van Dyke fumbled, recovered by Gilbert Tongrongou at BC 49.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:3710% → 16%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
10.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 12 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
10.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Lewis Bond, broken up by Jahfari HarveySimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
10.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the MIA 37Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
9.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+5
9.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the MIA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
9.5%
Alex Broome run for 3 yds to the MIA 24Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+3
9.4%
Alex Broome run for 3 yds to the MIA 21Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+21
16.0%
Thomas Castellanos 21 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
14 plays · 92 yds · 5:4488% → 98%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
12.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 15Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 3
OWN 15
-1
12.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 14Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+9
11.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 9 yds to the MIA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+38
11.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 38 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
10.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
9.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+2
10.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+28
10.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 28 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
8.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the BC 4Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
6.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.6%
Jacolby George 4 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:224% → 4%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
4.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for no gain to the BC 30Similar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
3.7%
Sam Candotti punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:4498% → 99%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
1.8%
Ajay Allen run for 14 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
1.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 11 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
1.5%
Ajay Allen run for no gain to the BC 45Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+21
1.4%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 6 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Personal Foul (Daveon Crouch) to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
1.3%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 4 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
1.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Riley WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+4
1.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 4 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
1.4%
Andres Borregales 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by KP Price, spot at BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17INT
3 plays · 26 yds · 1:182% → 3%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
2.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 16 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
2.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 10 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
2.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass intercepted Ahmad Moten return for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:1899% → 99%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
1.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 28 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
0.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 8 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 2
OPP 8
-1
0.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 9Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
0.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 1 yd to the BC 8Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+26
0.9%
Andres Borregales 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:352% → 4%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
1.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 34 yds to the MIA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
1.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
1.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 1 yd to the MIA 40Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+10
1.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 10 yds to the MIA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
1.3%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 34Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+5
1.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+27
1.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 27 yds to the MIA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.0%
Lewis Bond 2 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:3499% → 100%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
1.3%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the MIA 37Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
1.0%
Ajay Allen run for 11 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
0.9%
Ajay Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 47Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+7
0.8%
Ajay Allen run for 7 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+11
1.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Riley Williams for 11 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
1.0%
Ajay Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 36Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+6
0.8%
Ajay Allen run for 6 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+30
0.1%
Ajay Allen 30 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-14
0.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass intercepted Marcellius Pulliam return for 14 yds to the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:21
Henry Parrish Jr. 2 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)
-7.4
TD · Q3 8:46
Thomas Castellanos 21 Yd Run (Liam Connor Kick)
+6.6
TD · Q3 2:49
Jacolby George 4 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com