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USC

USC 31 at Boston College 37

BC
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:14 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:27: Sherman Alston run for 54 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK) — BC win probability +10.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:06: Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK) — BC win probability +16.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 7:42: Joey Launceford 25 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +6.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:32: Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 10 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +24.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:30: Tyler Murphy run for 66 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK) — BC win probability +9.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8USC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:11USC 4th & 19 at USC 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33BC 4th & 3 at BC 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:31USC 4th & 10 at BC 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:05BC 4th & 9 at BC 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:30BC 4th & 20 at BC 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:16USC 4th & 11 at BC 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:51USC 4th & 1 at USC 19, up 4
    Close callPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:11BC 4th & 5 at BC 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:50USC 4th & 1 at USC 27, up 4
    Close callPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:38USC 4th & 5 at USC 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:33USC 4th & 13 at USC 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−3.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:27BC 4th & 8 at USC 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:57USC 4th & 11 at USC 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−2.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:36USC 4th & 24 at USC 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−6.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:43BC 4th & 3 at BC 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:00USC 4th & 12 at USC 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:13BC 4th & 7 at BC 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:22USC 4th & 2 at USC 44, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:42BC 4th & 8 at USC 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−6.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:05USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:08USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:08BC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:27BC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:06BC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:32USC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:30BC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    95.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2392% → 92%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
7.6%
George Farmer run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 32Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+2
7.8%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-9
8.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Christian Lezzer for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 19
OWN 25
0
8.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:108% → 9%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
8.3%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for 7 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
8.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 1
50
-2
8.6%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 48Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
8.8%
Alex Howell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:4091% → 90%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
8.9%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 9Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+25
9.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 25 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
9.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 19 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
9.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
9.1%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the BC 47Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
9.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
9.6%
Kris Albarado punt for 37 yds, downed at the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1910% → 10%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
9.6%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 12
-1
9.8%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 11Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
9.9%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 9
OWN 11
+8
9.9%
Alex Howell punt for 35 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 8 yds to the BC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5290% → 91%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
9.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 39Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+8
10.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 8 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+7
10.2%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+18
10.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 18 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
10.3%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 8Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
9.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 8 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2410% → 10%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
9.8%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Dan CrimminsSimilar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
9.8%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the BC 19Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 9
OWN 19
-11
9.9%
Tyler Murphy sacked by J.R. Tavai for a loss of 11 yards to the BC 8Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 20
OWN 8
+11
9.9%
Alex Howell punt for 36 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 11 yds to the BC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0890% → 90%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
9.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Bryce DixonSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
9.8%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-4
10.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 34Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+52
10.2%
Andre Heidari 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:0310% → 14%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+52
10.1%
Myles Willis run for 52 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
10.7%
Tyler Rouse run for 6 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
10.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 4 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
11.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
11.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
11.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the USC 4Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
14.1%
Tyler Rouse run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 0:2988% → 90%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
12.5%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
12.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to George Farmer, broken up by Manuel AsprillaSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+51
10.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 51 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5111% → 17%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.5%
Sherman Alston run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
10.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 16 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
11.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+17
11.5%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Shakim Phillips for 17 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
12.0%
Tyler Rouse run for 5 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+23
12.1%
Tyler Murphy run for 23 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
12.3%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the USC 3Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
17.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0285% → 84%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
15.1%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-1
15.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 14Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+5
16.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 5 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 1
OWN 19
-6
16.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 51 yds , Sherman Alston returns for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2716% → 16%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
15.7%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 21Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+8
15.9%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 8 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
16.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Dan CrimminsSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 5
OWN 29
-4
15.7%
Alex Howell punt for 49 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1484% → 83%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
16.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
16.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 8 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
16.5%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 27Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
17.4%
Kris Albarado punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:2319% → 20%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
18.6%
Myles Willis run for 15 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
19.6%
Tyler Murphy run for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
20.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Josh BordnerSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
19.8%
Tyler Murphy pass intercepted Chris Hawkins return for no gain to the USC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2683% → 82%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
16.7%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-3
16.7%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+6
18.3%
Cody Kessler run for 6 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
18.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
28.5%
Sherman Alston run for 54 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:4473% → 71%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-8
26.7%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 23 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Max Tuerk) to the USC 13Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 18
OWN 13
0
27.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Javorius AllenSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 18
OWN 13
0
27.7%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+5
28.7%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
29.3%
Kris Albarado punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:1331% → 30%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
30.5%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 14 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
30.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
30.8%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 8 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+47
30.4%
Alex Howell 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
29.2%
Soma Vainuku run for 11 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:5630% → 34%
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
30.2%
Myles Willis run for 6 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+11
31.9%
Myles Willis run for 11 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
33.3%
Tyler Rouse run for no gain to the BC 44Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
32.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 4 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+7
33.4%
Tyler Murphy run for 7 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
35.8%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 46Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+3
36.0%
Tyler Murphy run for 3 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
36.3%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Josh Bordner, broken up by Hayes PullardSimilar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
33.9%
Alex Howell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Nelson Agholor at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2667% → 62%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
33.3%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
34.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 2 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 15
-6
35.7%
Cody Kessler sacked by Brian Mihalik for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 9Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 11
OWN 9
+22
38.1%
Kris Albarado punt for 54 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 22 yds to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:4340% → 60%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
40.4%
Tyler Murphy run for 21 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
41.9%
Myles Willis run for 7 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+3
42.6%
Sherman Alston run for 3 yds to the USC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
43.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 9 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:1743% → 36%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+17
56.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 17 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
56.7%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-2
56.7%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 27Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-10
60.1%
Cody Kessler sacked by Seyi Adebayo for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 17Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 19
OWN 17
-5
63.6%
Albarado, Kris punt 58 yards to the BOSTCOLL25, downed, PENALTY USC illegal procedure 5 yards to the USC12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 24
OWN 12
0
63.9%
Kris Albarado punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4664% → 65%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
64.2%
Myles Willis run for no gain to the BC 38Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-7
64.7%
Sherman Alston run for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 31Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+14
62.5%
Tyler Rouse run for 14 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+3
64.5%
Alex Howell punt for 36 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 3 yds to the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:3736% → 26%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
64.3%
Javorius Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 20Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+12
66.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 12 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
65.2%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+1
64.9%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 38Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-5
66.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (Viane Talamaivao) to the USC 33Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-3
72.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Matt Milano for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
74.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4172% → 70%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
72.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
71.9%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Charlie Callinan, broken up by Chris HawkinsSimilar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
71.1%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Sherman AlstonSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 7
OWN 35
-3
70.2%
Alex Howell punt for 45 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3427% → 26%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
73.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 19 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
71.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 7 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-1
70.4%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 42Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-8
72.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Josh Keyes for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 34Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+10
77.4%
Albarado, Kris punt 40 yards to the BOSTCOLL26, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BOSTCOLL holding 10 yards to the USC44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
74.4%
Kris Albarado punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 28FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 4:3277% → 92%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
76.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 25 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
79.6%
Tyler Murphy run for 27 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
80.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+6
80.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
80.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 2 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
82.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
85.1%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
86.2%
Tyler Rouse run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 8Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
92.4%
Joey Launceford 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 29TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0310% → 34%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 13 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
88.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 5 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+11
89.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 11 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
89.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu Smith, broken up by Matt MilanoSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
89.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+16
90.4%
Javorius Allen run for 16 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
89.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 2 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+13
89.9%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 13 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
90.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 2 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
65.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 10 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 30TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:4687% → 97%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
86.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+66
96.9%
Tyler Murphy run for 66 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 31TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 1:376% → 6%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
94.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 8 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
93.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Randall TelferSimilar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
94.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
50
+3
94.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 3 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+16
94.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 16 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
93.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 1 yd to the BC 30Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
93.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+16
94.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 16 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
93.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 14 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 32END OF GAME
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:5399% → 99%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
98.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 22 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+14
99.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 14 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:32
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 10 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)
-24.6
TD · Q3 7:06
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q2 1:27
Sherman Alston run for 54 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com