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VT

Virginia Tech 48 at Boston College 22

BC
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+1.7BC 5.7%Thomas Castellanos pass complete toJaedn Skeete for 8 yds for a TD(Thomas Castellanos pass to Lewis Bondfor Two-Point Conversion)AWAY 38 - HOME 15 · Q3 2:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:52 · Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 8 yds for a TD (Thomas Castellanos pass to Lewis Bond for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense−33.3Score differential−21.0Garbage-time factor−11.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Pregame prior−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:00: Alex Broome run for 4 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +2.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:07: Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 22 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +5.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:04: Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 5 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +12.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:33: Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +9.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:50: Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +8.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:40VT 4th & 6 at BC 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:08VT 4th & 6 at VT 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:42VT 4th & 1 at BC 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:54BC 4th & 12 at BC 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:04BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.5%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:47BC 4th & 6 at BC 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:44BC 4th & 10 at BC 49, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:05VT 4th & 23 at VT 37, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:50BC 4th & 5 at VT 49, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:52BC 4th & 5 at VT 8, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:50VT 4th & 1 at BC 40, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:27BC 4th & 15 at BC 20, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:54VT 4th & 6 at BC 29, up 30
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:36BC 4th & 10 at BC 25, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:39BC 4th & 3 at BC 27, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:00BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:28VT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:07VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:04VT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:33VT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:50VT Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:52BC Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:53VT Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:26BC Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
44.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass intercepted by Dorian StrongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0755% → 55%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
44.9%
Kyron Drones run for 5 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+18
44.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 18 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
44.9%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
44.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 7 yds to the BC 7Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
44.9%
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the BC 5Similar
Q1 14:47
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-5
44.9%
QB Keeper DRONES, Kyron rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the BOS4, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, VPI Illegal Snap enforced 5 yards from the BOS5 to the BOS10. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
45.2%
John Love 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:4045% → 48%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
45.3%
Alex Broome run for 2 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
45.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 4 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
45.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
45.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 6 yds to the VT 46Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
45.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds to the VT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
45.6%
Alex Broome run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 40Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+36
45.5%
Alex Broome run for 36 yds to the VT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
47.8%
Alex Broome run for 4 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5253% → 52%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.3%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds to the VT 29Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
47.2%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
47.4%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
48.2%
Peter Moore punt for 47 yds, downed at the BC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5INT
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:2647% → 48%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
47.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 12 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass intercepted by Dorian Strong at the VT 35, return -4 yds to the VT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 6:1452% → 55%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
47.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 25 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
47.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for no gain to the BC 44Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
47.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
47.2%
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
47.5%
Kyron Drones run for 2 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
46.8%
Kyron Drones run for 7 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
46.7%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 2 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+10
47.0%
Kyron Drones run for 10 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
46.7%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+4
46.7%
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the BC 7Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
45.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 7 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:1955% → 61%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
45.2%
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
45.0%
Kyron Drones run for 7 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+8
44.5%
Kyron Drones run for 8 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
44.2%
Kyron Drones run for 3 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
44.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+5
44.6%
Kyron Drones run for 5 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
39.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 22 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 4:1339% → 36%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
39.3%
Alex Broome run for 8 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
39.5%
Alex Broome run for 2 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
39.7%
Nate Johnson run for 2 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-10
39.3%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas scrambles to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the BOS48 (MCDONALD, Jayden), out of bounds. PENALTY BOS Holding on HERGEL, Kyle enforced 10 yards from the BOS41 to the BOS31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 16
OWN 31
-5
38.3%
Boston College Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the BC 26Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+9
38.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 9 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
36.3%
Sam Candotti punt for 38 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for no gain Virginia Tech Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the VT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:5061% → 75%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
39.0%
Kyron Drones run for 59 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
37.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+7
37.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 7 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.8%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 5 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1729% → 27%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
28.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
29.1%
Xavier Coleman run for 3 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
29.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
29.7%
Anthony Ferrucci run for 4 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
30.0%
Alex Broome run for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-2
30.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 40Similar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
26.6%
Sam Candotti punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 2:1476% → 88%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
23.7%
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the VT 18Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+3
23.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 3 yds to the VT 21Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+70
24.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 70 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
22.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the BC 4Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:4918% → 17%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
18.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 20 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
19.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
19.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
19.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
16.8%
Sam Candotti punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:3988% → 89%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+21
12.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 21 yds to the VT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
12.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
50
0
11.5%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Kyron Drones) to the VT 44Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 16
OWN 44
0
11.5%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 16
OWN 44
-7
10.8%
Kyron Drones run for a loss of 7 yards to the VT 37 Kyron Drones fumbled, recovered by VT Kyron Drones [NHSG] QB Keeper DRONES, Kyron rush up the middle for a loss of 7 yards, DRONES, Kyron fumbled at VPI40 , recovered by VPI DRONES, Kyron at the VPI37, returned 0 yards to the VPI37, End of Play.Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 23
OWN 37
0
11.4%
Peter Moore punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaden Williams at the BC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by BOS at BOS22 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 6:0488% → 97%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
12.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 12 yds to the VT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
11.8%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 17 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
11.4%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 1 yd to the BC 46Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-5
11.5%
Virginia Tech Penalty, False Start (Bhayshul Tuten) to the VT 49Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+12
11.5%
Kyron Drones run for 12 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
11.7%
Kyron Drones run for 3 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
11.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ayden Greene for 8 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+4
11.1%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
11.1%
Kyron Drones run for 11 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
11.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 9 yds to the BC 4Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
2.8%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:584% → 6%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.7%
Alex Broome run for no gain to the BC 35Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
3.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
3.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 11 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
3.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the VT 49Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
3.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
3.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the VT 49Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+16
3.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 16 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
4.3%
Alex Broome run for 3 yds to the VT 30Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+17
4.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 17 yds to the VT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
4.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the VT 11Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
4.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the VT 8Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-15
4.0%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass to the left complete for 0 yards to FRANKLIN, Jeremiah caught at the VPI10 and advanced to the VPI8 (DELANE, Mansoor). PENALTY BOS Personal Foul on BOND, Lewis enforced 15 yards from the VPI8 to the VPI23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 20
OPP 23
+15
4.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 15 yds to the VT 8Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+8
5.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 8 yds for a TD (Thomas Castellanos pass to Lewis Bond for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:5796% → 99%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
3.6%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
3.6%
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the BC 48Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+8
3.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 8 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+4
4.0%
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
2.9%
Malachi Thomas run for 1 yd to the BC 35Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+35
0.8%
Malachi Thomas run for 35 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:261% → 1%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.8%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep to the right incomplete intended for TOMLIN, Dino thrown to the BOS45. PENALTY BOS Illegal Forward Pass on CASTELLANOS, Thomas enforced 5 yards from the BOS25 to the BOS20, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
0.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
0.7%
Sam Candotti punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the VT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:3399% → 100%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
0.8%
Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
0.8%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+16
0.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Bryce Duke for 16 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
0.8%
Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
0.8%
Jeremiah Coney run for no gain to the BC 31Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+2
0.4%
Jeremiah Coney run for 2 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
0.5%
John Love 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:180% → 0%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Sam Candotti punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 63 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
0.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 2 yds to the VT 39Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
0.4%
Chance Black run for 1 yd to the VT 40Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+60
0.3%
Grant Wells rush up the middle for a gain of 60 yards, WELLS, Grant fumbled at BOS7 forced by NELSON JR., Victor, recovered by BOS TEAM at the BOS0 to the BOS0, touchback., clock 09:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
0.2%
Xavier Coleman run for 4 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
0.3%
Xavier Coleman run for 3 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Sam Candotti punt for 35 yds , returns for no gain to the VT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 3:130% → 0%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.2%
Andre Hines run for 5 yds to the VT 32Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+2
0.2%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Reed Harris for 2 yds to the VT 30Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+3
0.2%
Xavier Coleman run for 3 yds to the VT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
0.2%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 12 yds to the VT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
0.2%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Charlie Gordinier for 14 yds to the VT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Xavier Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 40 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
0.2%
William Watson III run for 8 yds to the VT 25Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 2
OWN 25
-4
0.2%
William Watson III run for a loss of 4 yards to the VT 32 fumbled, recovered by VT William Watson III for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
0.2%
Jeremiah Coney run for 5 yds to the VT 37Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+14
0.2%
William Watson III run for 14 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
0.2%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the VT 46Similar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
0.2%
William Watson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+1
0.2%
Bryce Duke run for 1 yd to the VT 47Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+10
0.1%
William Watson III run for 10 yds to the BC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:04
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 5 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q2 1:33
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q3 8:50
Bhayshul Tuten run for 4 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com