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FSU

Florida State 31 at Boston College 29

BC
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:01 · Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Pregame prior−24.4Home team on offense−31.6Score differential−18.8Garbage-time factor−10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:27: Trey Benson run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:28: Jordan Travis pass complete to Preston Daniel for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:02: Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Connor PAT MISSED) — BC win probability +6.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:18: Khari Johnson 8 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BC win probability +10.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:19: Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +28.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:17FSU 4th & 3 at BC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:59FSU 4th & 8 at BC 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52BC 4th & 1 at FSU 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:22BC 4th & 3 at FSU 3, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:54BC 4th & 18 at FSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:00BC 4th & 9 at BC 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:31FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03BC 4th & 10 at BC 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:18BC 4th & 13 at BC 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:34FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:01BC 4th & 1 at BC 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:32BC 4th & 2 at FSU 5, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−0.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−6.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:30FSU 4th & 16 at BC 44, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    87.2%−1.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:19BC 4th & 2 at FSU 7, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%−0.4
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−8.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:37FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 32, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:16BC 4th & 24 at BC 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−4.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:53BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:23FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:27FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:28FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:20FSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:02BC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:18BC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    15.9%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:19BC Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:075% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
4.7%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (Logan Taylor) to the BC 20Similar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
4.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+35
4.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 35 yds to the FSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
5.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the FSU 38Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
5.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+8
5.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
5.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the FSU 22Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-10
5.8%
Boston College Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FSU 32Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+32
6.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 32 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:3694% → 92%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
6.3%
Trey Benson run for 7 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+5
6.5%
Trey Benson run for 5 yds to the FSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
6.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 19 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
6.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
7.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+4
7.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+21
7.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 21 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
7.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
7.9%
Rodney Hill run for 2 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
8.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
7.9%
Ryan Fitzgerald 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3FG
19 plays · 72 yds · 7:218% → 14%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
8.3%
Cam'ron Barfield run for 1 yd to the BC 27Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
8.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 7 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
8.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
9.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
9.7%
Cam'ron Barfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 38Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+29
9.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 29 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
10.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 18 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
10.8%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (Christian Mahogany) to the FSU 20Similar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
11.1%
Ryan O'Keefe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 15
OPP 20
0
11.1%
Cam'ron Barfield run for no gain to the FSU 20Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+14
11.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 14 yds to the FSU 6Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
11.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the FSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
12.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
12.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the FSU 3Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
12.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
13.9%
Liam Connor 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5987% → 89%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.5%
Boston College Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the FSU 30Similar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+6
13.2%
Trey Benson run for 6 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
13.8%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the FSU 36Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+19
14.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 19 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
13.7%
Jordan Travis run for 17 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
13.5%
Boston College Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the BC 23Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+4
14.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+19
11.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 19 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:0313% → 16%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
13.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 10Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 10
-1
13.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Cam'ron Barfield for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 9Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 9
-4
13.3%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the BC 5Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 14
OWN 5
+45
13.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 45 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
50
+8
16.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the FSU 42Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-5
16.5%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FSU 47Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+15
17.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 15 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-5
17.7%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (Christian Mahogany) to the FSU 33Similar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
17.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 4 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-7
18.4%
Cam'ron Barfield run for a loss of 7 yards to the FSU 40Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 18
OPP 40
0
16.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to George TakacsSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 18
OPP 40
0
16.1%
Sam Candotti punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:0085% → 91%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
15.4%
Rodney Hill run for 18 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
15.4%
Rodney Hill run for 12 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
14.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Darion Williamson for 12 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
14.1%
Trey Benson run for 6 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+4
14.1%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
14.3%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
14.6%
Rodney Hill run for 6 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+13
15.0%
Boston College Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cole Batson) to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.3%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:2012% → 11%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
11.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 24Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
11.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
11.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 26Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-2
11.4%
Sam Candotti punt for 51 yds , Keon Coleman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:2589% → 88%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
11.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
11.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+8
11.8%
Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
11.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaden Williams at the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:2112% → 12%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
12.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 12 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
13.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Joseph Griffin Jr.Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
12.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
12.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
11.7%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
10.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:2488% → 93%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
11.7%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 27Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+44
12.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 44 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
10.8%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
10.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 3 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+9
10.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 9 yds to the BC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Preston Daniel for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass intercepted DJ Lundy return for no gain to the BC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:4693% → 97%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
7.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 39 yds to the BC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
6.6%
Florida State Penalty, Offensive Offside (Edwin Joseph) to the BC 1Similar
Q3 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.7%
DJ Lundy run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
3.0%
Florida State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Keiondre Jones) to the FSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 2:355% → 4%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
4.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
4.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-10
4.7%
Boston College Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jude Bowry) to the BC 30Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 14
OWN 30
-5
4.4%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (Drew Kendall) to the BC 25Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+6
3.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
3.8%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 22 yds, downed at the FSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3898% → 98%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
2.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Rodney HillSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
2.6%
Rodney Hill run for 4 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+2
2.4%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 4
OPP 47
-5
2.6%
Florida State Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the FSU 48Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
2.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:203% → 9%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
2.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
3.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
3.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+2
2.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
2.7%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (Jude Bowry) to the BC 26Similar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 15
OWN 26
0
2.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the BC 26Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 15
OWN 26
-2
2.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 24Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+52
2.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 52 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
2.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 5 yds to the FSU 19Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+5
2.9%
Florida State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
2.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the FSU 10Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
2.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+6
2.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the FSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Connor PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:269% → 9%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
9.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the FSU 23Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
9.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the FSU 17Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
9.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the FSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
9.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-4
9.3%
Kye Robichaux run for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 11Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+6
8.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 6 yds to the FSU 5Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 2
OPP 5
0
8.7%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the FSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0596% → 85%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
4.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
4.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+11
4.6%
Jordan Travis run for 11 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
4.0%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the FSU 18Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
14.7%
Khari Johnson 8 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:2186% → 89%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
13.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 6 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+21
11.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 21 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
11.2%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
9.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Rodney Hill for 5 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
9.3%
Keon Coleman run for 2 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-15
10.4%
Florida State Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Keon Coleman) to the BC 44Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 16
OPP 44
+5
11.4%
Boston College Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BC 39Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 11
OPP 39
-5
10.9%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 44Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
11.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
9 plays · 95 yds · 2:0111% → 41%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
11.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
11.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+13
10.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 13 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+42
11.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 42 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
13.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 25 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
15.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
15.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+8
13.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to George Takacs for 8 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+7
41.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3670% → 71%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.1%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
27.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
29.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaden Williams at the BC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4437% → 32%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
36.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 21Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-9
36.6%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by DJ Lundy and Renardo Green for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 12Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 20
OWN 12
+28
34.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 28 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
41.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
39.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-14
38.1%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 14 yards to the BC 26Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 24
OWN 26
-2
32.3%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 38 yds , Keon Coleman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 34 Keon Coleman fumbled, recovered by FSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:0878% → 93%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
22.4%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
20.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FSU 37Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+19
14.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (John Pupel) to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-12
11.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the FSU 44Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 22
OWN 44
-1
10.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 43Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 23
OWN 43
-3
7.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:19
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
+28.1
TD · Q4 11:18
Khari Johnson 8 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+10.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com