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Holy Cross 28 at Boston College 31

BC
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadHC aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreHC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:10 · Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Pregame prior+2.2Home team on offense+9.8Garbage-time factor+2.8Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:23: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to George Takacs for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +7.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:46: Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK) — HC win probability +8.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 12:40: Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK) — HC win probability +10.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 5 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +13.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:26: Jordan Fuller run for 15 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK) — HC win probability +18.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:49HC 4th & 3 at BC 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:51BC 4th & 1 at HC 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:38HC 4th & 9 at BC 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  4. Q3 10:31BC 4th & 8 at BC 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:00HC 4th & 23 at HC 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−3.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:31BC 4th & 11 at BC 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:07HC 4th & 6 at HC 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:55HC 4th & 1 at HC 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.2%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:10BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.9%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:58BC 4th & 4 at HC 43, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−5.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%−4.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:49BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56HC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:06BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:23BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:46HC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:40HC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55BC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:26HC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 6:0875% → 76%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
75.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 7 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+7
75.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 7 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
75.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
75.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds TEAM fumbled, recovered by BCSimilar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+18
75.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 18 yds to the HC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
75.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 8 yds to the HC 40Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+9
75.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 9 yds to the HC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
75.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 2 yds to the HC 29Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+4
75.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the HC 25Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+5
75.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the HC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
75.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the HC 19Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+16
75.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 16 yds to the HC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
75.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 2TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:5325% → 31%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.5%
Tyler Purdy run for 6 yds to the HC 31Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
75.3%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Tyler Purdy for no gain to the HC 31Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
75.5%
Holy Cross Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the HC 26Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
75.7%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 9 yds to the HC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
75.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd to the HC 36Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+17
75.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 17 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
75.0%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
75.1%
Tyler Purdy run for 9 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-2
75.0%
Quinton Gregory run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 40Similar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+5
75.3%
Matthew Sluka run for 5 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
74.8%
Jordan Fuller run for 8 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-10
74.7%
SLUKA, Matthew scrambles to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the BOS19 (PUPEL, John). PENALTY CHC Holding on HANSON, C.J. enforced 10 yards from the BOS27 to the BOS37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+21
75.2%
Matthew Sluka run for 21 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
74.7%
Jordan Fuller run for 5 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+2
74.7%
Jordan Fuller run for 2 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 3
OPP 9
-10
75.0%
QB Keeper SLUKA, Matthew rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the BOS5 (EZEIRUAKU, Donovan). PENALTY CHC Holding on MCMURTRIE, Pat enforced 10 yards from the BOS9 to the BOS19 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+17
75.0%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Phoenix Dickson for 17 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.1%
Jordan Fuller run for 2 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 7:4572% → 79%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
71.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+4
71.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+4
71.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
71.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
71.9%
Cam'ron Barfield run for 4 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+13
71.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 13 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
72.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
72.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
72.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the HC 47Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
72.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the HC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
73.1%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Jaden thrown to the CHC13. PENALTY CHC Pass Interference on SPENCE, Terrence enforced 15 yards to the CHC30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
73.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the HC 26Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+10
73.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 10 yds to the HC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
73.3%
Cam'ron Barfield run for 2 yds to the HC 14Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
78.7%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 14 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:2824% → 22%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
76.5%
Matthew Sluka run for 16 yds to the HC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
75.6%
Tyler Purdy run for 5 yds to the HC 46Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
75.0%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Justin Shorter for 5 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
74.6%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
76.2%
Matthew Sluka run for no gain to the BC 49Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+1
76.8%
Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd to the BC 48Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
77.8%
Patrick Haughney punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:1578% → 87%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
78.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-5
78.3%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 21Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
78.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 15 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
78.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
79.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
79.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+47
79.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaden Williams for 47 yds to the HC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
79.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the HC 2Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
80.5%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the HC 2Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to George Takacs for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 6TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 0:4216% → 25%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
50
0
84.4%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
50
+10
85.1%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 10 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
83.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Justin Shorter for 32 yds to the BC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
74.8%
Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 0:4578% → 83%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 7 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
79.0%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep to the left incomplete intended for O'KEEFE, Ryan broken up by THOMPSON, Eli at the BOS50. PENALTY CHC Pass Interference on THOMPSON, Eli enforced 15 yards to the BOS47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
79.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 18 yds to the HC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.3%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GRIFFIN, Joe thrown to the CHC0. PENALTY CHC Pass Interference on HASKINS, Devin declined CHC Roughing the Passer on THOMPSON, Eli enforced 15 yards from the CHC35 to the CHC20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
80.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
80.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the HC 19Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+37
82.5%
Liam Connor 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 8TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 2:1720% → 34%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
79.8%
Tyler Purdy run for 1 yd to the HC 22Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+23
79.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Tyler Purdy for 23 yds to the HC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
78.6%
Jordan Fuller run for 45 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
76.7%
Jordan Fuller run for 2 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
65.9%
Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0971% → 69%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
71.4%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass to the left incomplete intended for ROBICHAUX, Kye thrown to the BOS27. PENALTY BOS Holding enforced 10 yards from the BOS27 to the BOS17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
71.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 6 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
69.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
68.9%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coker at the HC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:3130% → 29%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Matthew Sluka run for no gain to the HC 25Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
70.2%
Matthew Sluka run for 20 yds to the HC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
67.5%
QB Keeper SLUKA, Matthew rush to the right for a gain of 18 yards to the BOS37, out of bounds. PENALTY BOS Personal Foul on JACKSON, Amari enforced 15 yards CHC Holding on MCMURTRIE, Pat enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards BOS Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the to the CHC30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
66.7%
Holy Cross Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 45Similar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 15
OPP 45
-5
67.8%
Holy Cross Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 20
50
0
68.1%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 20
50
0
68.6%
Matthew Sluka run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 20
50
-5
69.5%
Holy Cross Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the HC 45Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 25
OWN 45
+2
70.0%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 2 yds to the HC 47Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 23
OWN 47
0
70.6%
Patrick Haughney punt for 37 yds, Jaden Williams return for -1 yds to the BOS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:2971% → 69%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
70.6%
Cam'ron Barfield run for 10 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
70.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaden Williams for 23 yds Jaden Williams fumbled, recovered by BC Cam'ron Barfield for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
73.5%
Cam'ron Barfield run for 4 yds to the HC 48Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-10
74.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the BC 43 Boston College Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Thomas Castellanos) to the BC 42Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+10
70.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 10 yds to the HC 48Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 6
OPP 48
-5
71.2%
Boston College Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the BC 47Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
68.6%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coker at the HC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2430% → 27%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
70.0%
Matthew Sluka run for 2 yds to the HC 15Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
70.1%
Jordan Fuller run for 2 yds to the HC 17 Jordan Fuller fumbled, recovered by HCSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
71.4%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
73.1%
Patrick Haughney punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:1274% → 88%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
73.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
73.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the HC 35Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
73.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the HC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
74.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 23 yds to the HC 7 for a 1ST down Holy Cross Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Haskins) to the HC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
74.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 2 yards to the HC 5 Thomas Castellanos fumbled, recovered by BC Thomas CastellanosSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 5 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 14TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:2914% → 36%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.4%
Jordan Fuller run for 6 yds to the HC 31Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
85.0%
Jordan Fuller run for 3 yds to the HC 34Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
85.4%
Matthew Sluka run for no gain to the HC 34Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+13
86.5%
Jordan Fuller run for 13 yds to the HC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
84.2%
Jordan Fuller run for 1 yd to the HC 48Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
84.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 4 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+21
84.1%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 21 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
82.2%
QB Keeper SLUKA, Matthew rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the BOS22 (BATSON, Cole). PENALTY CHC Holding on PETERSEN, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the BOS27 to the BOS37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 20
OPP 37
-3
84.2%
Matthew Sluka sacked by Shitta Sillah for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 40Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 23
OPP 40
+2
84.6%
Jalen Coker run for 2 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 21
OPP 38
+15
85.9%
SLUKA, Matthew sacked for a loss of 8 yards at the BOS46 (DEPALMA, Vinny). PENALTY BOS Personal Foul on OKPALA, Neto enforced 15 yards from the BOS38 to the BOS23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
82.2%
Jordan Forrest run for 3 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
82.2%
Jordan Fuller run for 5 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+15
63.9%
Jordan Fuller run for 15 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
15 plays · 32 yds · 5:2874% → 89%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-6
75.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
71.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 11 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
73.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
78.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 8 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
79.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the HC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
79.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the HC 42Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-5
79.6%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the HC 47Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-3
88.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 11
50
+7
87.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds to the HC 43Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
88.6%
Sam Candotti punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coker at the HC 25. PENALTY BOS Unsportsmanlike Conduct enforced at the deadball spot for 15 yards after the change of possession from the CHC 10 to the CHC 25 Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:3921% → 32%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
79.5%
Matthew Sluka run for 35 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
70.8%
Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd to the BC 39Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+11
72.5%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Matthew Sluka for 11 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
68.5%
Matthew Sluka run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 33 Matthew Sluka fumbled, recovered by BC Vinny DePalmaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:1091% → 95%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
90.8%
[SG] Kneel down by CASTELLANOS, Thomas at BOS31 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
90.3%
[SG] Kneel down by BOS at BOS30 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
95.3%
[SG] Kneel down by CASTELLANOS, Thomas at BOS29 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:26
Jordan Fuller run for 15 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK)
-18.3
TD · Q4 14:55
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 5 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q3 12:40
Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds for a TD (Luis Palenzuela KICK)
-10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com