Miami (OH)

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0939th
  Defense+0.0289th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense36.8%10th
  Defense40.4%65th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2856th
  Defense+1.0998th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0118th
  Defense+0.0180th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3065th
  Defense+0.1381st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense43.4%11th
  Defense47.0%56th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense24.4%9th
  Defense24.3%92nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9424th
  Defense3.0948th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.6%45th
  Defense14.7%27th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.6%31st
  Defense17.4%65th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Miami (OH) allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MIA
2. W
   MASS
3. W
   CIN
4. W
   DSU
5. W
   KENT
6. W
   BGSU
7. W
   WMU
8. L
   TOL
9. W
   OHIO
10. W
    AKR
11. W
    BUF
12. W
    BALL
13. W
    TOL
14. L
    APP

Bars above the line: better than expected for Miami (OH).

Players, 2023

1. Brett GabbertQB199 plays · +0.273 pts/play · 87th of 250 QBs
   1.02WAR0.53 to 1.57
2. Aveon SmithQB143 plays · +0.202 pts/play · 125th of 250 QBs
   0.54WAR0.20 to 0.91
3. Rashad AmosRB180 plays · +0.095 pts/play · 65th of 383 RBs
   0.32WAR0.15 to 0.46
4. Gage LarvadainWR57 plays · +0.202 pts/play · 64th of 457 WRs
   0.22WAR0.09 to 0.34
5. Alec BevelhimerPK55 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 6th of 113 kickers
   0.17WAR0.11 to 0.23
6. Graham NicholsonPK20 plays · +0.340 pts/play · 14th of 113 kickers
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.17
7. Cade McDonaldWR36 plays · +0.171 pts/play · 160th of 457 WRs
   0.12WAR0.04 to 0.18
8. Kevin DavisRB43 plays · +0.059 pts/play · 295th of 383 RBs
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Miami (OH)'s players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  408408109th of 130Roster talent: 408, 109th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14514585th of 130Recruiting: 145, 85th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  68%68%33rd of 128Returning production: 68%, 33rd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +2.8+2.857th of 130SP+ rating: +2.8, 57th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Miami (OH)'s own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.21 of the 0.28 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at CINQ4 5:10 4th & 2 at CIN 2, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−4.9 pts
2. vs TOLQ4 6:35 4th & 2 at M-OH 47, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.9 pts
3. at TOLQ4 9:01 4th & 2 at M-OH 38, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
4. at MASSQ4 7:51 4th & 2 at MASS 37, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.0 pts
5. vs BUFQ4 14:53 4th & 2 at midfield, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
6. at APPQ4 8:01 4th & 6 at APP 45, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
7. vs TOLQ2 12:26 4th & 3 at TOL 3, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
8. at CINQ2 1:27 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

4th of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Miami (OH)'s chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MIA
2. W

   MASS
3. W

   CIN
4. W

   DSU
5. W

   KENT
6. W

   BGSU
7. W

   WMU
8. L

   TOL
9. W

   OHIO
10. W

    AKR
11. W

    BUF
12. W

    BALL
13. W

    TOL
14. L

    APP

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Miami (OH)'s pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.78
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock+0.10
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.25

Game by game

• MIAL 3-38 at MIA11% → 0%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −14
• MASSW 41-28 at MASS71% → 99%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +36, Clock +2
• CINW 31-24 at CIN19% → 39%Before kickoff −31 · On the field +19: Clock +3, Timeouts −2
• DSUW 62-20 vs DSU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• KENTW 23-3 at KENT88% → 99%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +20, Clock +1
• BGSUW 27-0 vs BGSU76% → 100%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +1
• WMUW 34-21 at WMU72% → 97%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +38, Clock +2
• TOLL 17-21 vs TOL43% → 4%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −48, Clock −3
• OHIOW 30-16 at OHIO28% → 99%Before kickoff −22 · On the field +70: Scoreboard +62, Clock +1
• AKRW 19-0 vs AKR87% → 99%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +17
• BUFW 23-10 vs BUF70% → 99%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +1
• BALLW 17-15 at BALL69% → 28%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −17, Possession & field position +2
• TOLW 23-14 at TOL29% → 95%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +57, Clock +4
• APPL 9-13 at APP36% → 5%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −31, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Miami (OH)'s side.

Closest call

MASS 20-23 M-OH (2024) - Miami (OH) dropped to a 6.6% win probability before pulling it out.