Try the model
M-OH

Miami (OH) 3 at Miami 38

MIA
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:47 · Alec Bevelhimer punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+32.6Home team on offense+2.9Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:33: Andres Borregales 32 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +3.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:58: Graham Nicholson 48 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +1.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Andres Borregales 43 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +3.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:09: Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Van Dyke pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion) — MIA win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:43: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 11:45M-OH 4th & 16 at M-OH 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:02MIA 4th & 6 at M-OH 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:47M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:45M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:36M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:33MIA 4th & 5 at M-OH 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:58M-OH 4th & 6 at MIA 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:28M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 33, down 13
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:43M-OH 4th & 6 at MIA 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−0.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:16MIA 4th & 13 at M-OH 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:40M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 28, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:15M-OH 4th & 6 at MIA 31, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:04M-OH 4th & 2 at MIA 17, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:26MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:09MIA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:43MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:29MIA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:3489% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
89.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
89.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the M-OH 39Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-5
88.9%
Miami Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the M-OH 44Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+44
89.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 44 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3811% → 11%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 4 yds to the M-OH 29Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
88.9%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the M-OH 24Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
88.9%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Jahfari Harvey for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 19Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
88.8%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 7:3389% → 88%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
88.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for no gain to the MIA 18Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+11
88.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 11 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
88.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 4 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+9
88.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 9 yds to the MIA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
88.7%
Ajay Allen run for 5 yds to the MIA 47Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
88.6%
Ajay Allen run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 2
50
+5
88.5%
Ajay Allen run for 5 yds to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
88.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
88.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the M-OH 44Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+10
88.3%
VAN DYKE, Tyler pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for GEORGE, Jacolby thrown to the UMU3, clock 06:40. PENALTY UMU Holding on MCKEE, Yahsyn enforced 10 yards from the UMU44 to the UMU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
88.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the M-OH 31Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+11
88.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 11 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
88.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the M-OH 19Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+3
88.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the M-OH 16Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
88.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
88.1%
Andres Borregales 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1312% → 12%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.6%
Kenny Tracy run for 1 yd to the M-OH 26Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
87.7%
Kevin Davis run for 1 yd to the M-OH 27Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
87.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 7 yds to the M-OH 34Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
87.7%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4588% → 86%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
87.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
87.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 5 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
86.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for no gain to the MIA 29Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-5
87.0%
Miami Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MIA 29Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
86.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:0713% → 13%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
87.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 14 yds to the M-OH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.8%
Rashad Amos run for no gain to the M-OH 36Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
87.0%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 37Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+7
87.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 7 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
87.3%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:4287% → 87%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
86.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 12 yds to the MIA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the MIA 31Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
86.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:1813% → 12%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
87.1%
Brett Gabbert run for 6 yds to the M-OH 46Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
86.8%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 47Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-9
86.9%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Wesley Bissainthe for a loss of 9 yards to the M-OH 38Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
88.0%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 40 yds, downed at the MIA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:5186% → 91%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
86.4%
Ajay Allen run for 4 yds to the MIA 26Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
86.7%
Ajay Allen run for 4 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+16
86.4%
Ajay Allen run for 16 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
87.3%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 19 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
87.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the M-OH 29Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+10
87.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 10 yds to the M-OH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
87.4%
Miami Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the M-OH 24Similar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+5
87.4%
Ajay Allen run for 5 yds to the M-OH 19Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
87.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+5
87.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 5 yds to the M-OH 14Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
90.6%
Andres Borregales 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:3510% → 13%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 10 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
90.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 30 yds to the MIA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
88.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 3 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+1
88.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 1 yd to the MIA 31Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
88.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
87.1%
Graham Nicholson 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FG
6 plays · 50 yds · 0:5788% → 93%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the MIA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
88.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 13 yds to the MIA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
88.7%
(00:22) VAN DYKE, Tyler pass to the right complete for 24 yards to GEORGE, Jacolby caught at the UMU39 and advanced to the UMU28 (SALOPEK, Matt), clock 00:15. PENALTY MIA Holding on MAUIGOA, Francis enforced 10 yards from the MIA48 to the MIA38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+37
88.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 37 yds to the M-OH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+43
92.5%
Andres Borregales 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3210% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the M-OH 26Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
89.8%
Kevin Davis run for 7 yds to the M-OH 33Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
89.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
89.8%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:1391% → 97%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
91.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 38Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+9
91.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 9 yds to the MIA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
91.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the M-OH 46Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+20
91.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 20 yds to the M-OH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
97.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Van Dyke pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:243% → 3%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.6%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the M-OH 28Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
96.5%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the M-OH 31Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+23
96.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 23 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
96.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 4 yds to the MIA 42Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
96.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
96.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
96.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:2297% → 97%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
97.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 15 yds to the M-OH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.4%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the M-OH 43Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
97.4%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 7 yds to the M-OH 36Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
97.4%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the M-OH 36Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 3
OPP 36
-5
97.3%
Miami Penalty, False Start (Anez Cooper) to the M-OH 41Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 8
OPP 41
-5
97.3%
Miami Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the M-OH 46Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
97.3%
Dylan Joyce punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Gage Larvadain at the M-OH 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:293% → 2%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
97.3%
Keyon Mozee run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 8Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-6
97.8%
(04:27) GABBERT, Brett scrambles to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the UMU14 (KINCHENS, Kamren;KELLY, Nyjalik), clock 04:20. PENALTY UMU Holding on YOUNG, John enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the UMU8 to the UMU4 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 16
OWN 4
0
97.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 16
OWN 4
+15
97.9%
Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Leonard Taylor III) to the M-OH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
97.7%
Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the M-OH 19Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
97.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 8 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+1
97.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the M-OH 28Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
98.0%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 43 yds , returns for no gain to the MIA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:4998% → 100%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
98.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 25Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+14
98.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 14 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
98.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 26 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
98.7%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Anthony Collier) to the M-OH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
98.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Ray Ray Joseph for 3 yds to the M-OH 12Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:200% → 0%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
99.8%
Rashad Amos run for 23 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the MIA 43Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-3
99.9%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 46Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 11 yds to the MIA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 6 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-2
99.9%
Keyon Mozee run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 31Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 6
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:43100% → 100%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+11
99.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for 11 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.9%
Ajay Allen run for 3 yds to the MIA 47Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+13
99.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Jacolby George for 13 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 3 yds to the M-OH 37Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-1
99.9%
Emory Williams sacked by Josh Lukusa for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 38Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+18
99.9%
Emory Williams pass complete to Riley Williams for 18 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
Aveon Smith sacked by Bobby Washington Jr. and Ryan Ragone for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 23Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+37
100.0%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Cade McDonald for 37 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
100.0%
Jordan Brunson run for 15 yds to the MIA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
100.0%
Aveon Smith run for 1 yd to the MIA 24Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
100.0%
Jordan Brunson run for 7 yds to the MIA 17Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 2
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Aveon Smith run for no gain to the MIA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
100.0%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 18Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+7
100.0%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:09
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Van Dyke pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion)
+5.2
FG · Q2 2:33
Andres Borregales 32 yd FG GOOD
+3.3
FG · Q2 0:00
Andres Borregales 43 yd FG GOOD
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com