2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by Miami (OH) at KENT16 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:20: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 32 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +2.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:41: Graham Nicholson 24 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +3.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:41: Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 3 yds to the KENT 28 — KENT win probability +2.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:41: No Huddle-Shotgun Gabbert,Brett pass complete short right to Tracy,Kenny for 4 yards loss to the MIAMI12 (Carroll,Mattheus) PENALTY KENT Face Mask (Carroll,Mattheus) 15 yards from MIAMI16 to MIAMI31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. — M-OH win probability +3.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:26: Rashad Amos run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +6.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 8 of 12M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 13:56M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snapGo for it80.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.8%average punt
- Q1 10:48KENT 4th & 4 at M-OH 10, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snapGo for it21.0%44% to convertField goalTheir call21.0%−<0.188% to makePunt20.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:09M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snapGo for it77.5%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.6%average punt
- Q1 7:52KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 24, up 3Close callWent for it · 22.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.4%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt22.6%average punt
- Q1 7:35M-OH 4th & 10 at KENT 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snapGo for it76.7%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call76.9%72% to makePunt75.8%−1.1average punt
- Q1 7:29KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt22.3%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:27KENT 4th & 30 at KENT 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.1%average punt
- Q2 13:17KENT 4th & 15 at KENT 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snapGo for it21.2%−1.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.4%average punt
- Q2 8:00M-OH 4th & 19 at KENT 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snapGo for it75.9%−1.510% to convertField goalTheir call77.4%72% to makePunt73.8%−3.6average punt
- Q2 2:37KENT 4th & 12 at M-OH 41, down 10Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it19.9%−<0.124% to convertField goal20.0%32% to makePuntTheir call19.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:29M-OH 4th & 15 at M-OH 13, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snapGo for it76.1%−1.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.8%average punt
- Q2 0:56KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it19.5%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q3 13:28KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it17.9%−1.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.3%average punt
- Q3 8:41M-OH 4th & 7 at KENT 7, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snapGo for it78.6%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call79.0%91% to makePunt72.9%−6.2average punt
- Q3 3:41KENT 4th & 17 at M-OH 48, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snapGo for it14.8%−1.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.1%average punt
- Q4 13:43KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 37, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.531% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q4 12:13M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 27, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q4 9:17KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 42, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q4 4:20M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 48, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%average punt
- Q4 3:19KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 22, down 20Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 0:20M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.0%97% to makeGo for two77.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:26M-OH Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0488% → 87%
Q1 13:56
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
12.9%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENT 31 , Luke Floriea returns for 7 yds to the KENT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2FG8 plays · 59 yds · 3:0813% → 15%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
12.9%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 8 yds to the KENT 39Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+11
12.9%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+32
12.9%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 32 yds to the M-OH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 1:3485% → 84%
Q1 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
14.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 11 yds to the M-OH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4DOWNS4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1715% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1784% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT12 plays · 20 yds · 5:0216% → 18%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
15.8%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 12 yds to the KENT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
16.1%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 18 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-10
16.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Alaimo,Michael pass incomplete deep left to McCray,Chrishon PENALTY KENT Holding (Lamptey,Elijah) 10 yards from MIAMI41 to KENT49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 16
OPP 48
-14
15.9%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Corey Suttle for a loss of 14 yards to the KENT 38Similar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
15.9%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Luke Floriea for 5 yds to the KENT 35Similar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 30
OWN 38
+15
18.2%
Charlie Durkin punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the M-OH 43 , Cade McDonald returns for 15 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7TD4 plays · 57 yds · 2:0783% → 85%
Q1 2:27
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+12
17.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 12 yds to the KENT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
17.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 12 yds to the KENT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
15.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 32 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4316% → 16%
M-OHDrive 9FG9 plays · 67 yds · 5:1783% → 84%
Q2 13:17
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+9
16.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 9 yds to the M-OH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
16.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 4 yds to the M-OH 26Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+49
16.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 49 yds to the KENT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
15.3%
Brett Gabbert sacked by CJ West for a loss of 5 yards to the KENT 18Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 14
OPP 17
-5
15.8%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Macyo WIlliams for a loss of 5 yards to the KENT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 5:2316% → 16%
Q2 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
15.8%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 7 yds to the KENT 34Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
16.3%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 9 yds to the KENT 47Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
16.2%
Charlie Durkin punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:0883% → 83%
KENTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3316% → 17%
Q2 0:56
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
16.5%
Charlie Durkin punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 19 yds · 0:5684% → 84%
KENTDrive 14PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2117% → 15%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
16.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Alaimo,Michael pass complete short middle to McCray,Chrishon for 75 yards to the MIAMI00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 14:49 PENALTY KENT Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Golden,Cameron) 5 yards from KENT25 to KENT20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
15.4%
Charlie Durkin punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15FG9 plays · 50 yds · 4:4784% → 88%
Q3 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+12
16.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 12 yds to the KENT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+13
16.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 13 yds to the KENT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
15.8%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Oliver Billotte for a loss of 8 yards to the KENT 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16PUNT13 plays · 27 yds · 5:0015% → 14%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.0%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 3 yds to the KENT 28Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
15.1%
PENALTY MIAMI Delay Of Game (Ertl,Austin) 5 yards from KENT34 to KENT39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
15.4%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 10 yds to the KENT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
16.1%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Justin Holmes for 1 yd to the KENT 48Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 9
50
+9
15.3%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 9 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-12
16.4%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Oscar McWood for a loss of 12 yards to the KENT 47Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 22
OWN 47
+5
14.7%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Luke Floriea for 5 yds to the M-OH 48Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
13.5%
Charlie Durkin punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD7 plays · 84 yds · 3:1590% → 98%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
9.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gabbert,Brett pass complete short right to Tracy,Kenny for 4 yards loss to the MIAMI12 (Carroll,Mattheus) PENALTY KENT Face Mask (Carroll,Mattheus) 15 yards from MIAMI16 to MIAMI31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+48
9.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 48 yds to the KENT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+14
8.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 14 yds to the KENT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:433% → 3%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.4%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 4 yds to the KENT 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
3.3%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 7 yds to the KENT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+5
2.6%
Charlie Durkin punt for 46 yds , Matt Salopek returns for 5 yds to the M-OH 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3097% → 97%
Q4 12:13
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
2.6%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:562% → 2%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
2.3%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Ty Wise for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 21Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+10
2.3%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 10 yds to the KENT 31Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+17
2.5%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 17 yds to the KENT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 15
OWN 43
-1
2.3%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Ty Wise for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 42Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
2.0%
Charlie Durkin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 4:5798% → 99%
Q4 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
1.9%
PENALTY KENT Offside (Daley,Stephen) 5 yards from MIAMI35 to MIAMI40. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
1.2%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 4 yds to the KENT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23END OF GAME6 plays · 6 yds · 3:1999% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:26
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-6
FG · Q3 8:41
Graham Nicholson 24 yd FG GOOD
-3.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:41
No Huddle-Shotgun Gabbert,Brett pass complete short right to Tracy,Kenny for 4 yards loss to the MIAMI12 (Carroll,Mattheus) PENALTY KENT Face Mask (Carroll,Mattheus) 15 yards from MIAMI16 to MIAMI31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-3.8