Miami (OH)

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1244th
  Defense+0.0477th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.7%27th
  Defense43.6%32nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2753rd
  Defense+1.0399th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0845th
  Defense+0.1042nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1959th
  Defense0.0089th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.8%29th
  Defense49.4%29th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.5%39th
  Defense30.1%56th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1062nd
  Defense3.2425th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.8%44th
  Defense12.5%5th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.2%32nd
  Defense17.1%61st

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Miami (OH) allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   NU
2. L
   CIN
3. L
   ND
4. W
   MASS
5. L
   TOL
6. W
   EMU
7. W
   OHIO
8. W
   CMU
9. W
   BALL
10. W
    KENT
11. W
    NIU
12. W
    BGSU
13. L
    OHIO
14. W
    CSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Miami (OH).

Players, 2024

1. Brett GabbertQB376 plays · +0.268 pts/play · 34th of 232 QBs
   1.88WAR1.28 to 2.55
2. Keyon MozeeRB138 plays · +0.121 pts/play · 80th of 373 RBs
   0.31WAR0.21 to 0.41
3. Javon TracyWR53 plays · +0.268 pts/play · 15th of 452 WRs
   0.27WAR0.13 to 0.38
4. Reggie VirgilWR43 plays · +0.240 pts/play · 45th of 452 WRs
   0.19WAR0.08 to 0.31
5. Alec BevelhimerPK47 plays · +0.215 pts/play · 2nd of 114 kickers
   0.19WAR0.11 to 0.27
6. Dom DziobanPK22 plays · +0.319 pts/play · 11th of 114 kickers
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.17
7. Cade McDonaldWR56 plays · +0.113 pts/play · 117th of 452 WRs
   0.12WAR−0.01 to 0.26
8. Kevin DavisRB57 plays · +0.086 pts/play · 255th of 373 RBs
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Miami (OH)'s players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  505505110th of 131Roster talent: 505, 110th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14814884th of 131Recruiting: 148, 84th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  60%60%39th of 130Returning production: 60%, 39th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +1.3+1.366th of 131SP+ rating: +1.3, 66th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Miami (OH)'s own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.19 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NIUQ4 8:26 4th & 2 at NIU 40, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
2. at TOLQ3 3:57 4th & 2 at M-OH 40, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
3. vs CINQ4 3:43 4th & 4 at CIN 12, down 8Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.4 pts
4. vs CINQ4 3:43 4th & 4 at CIN 12, down 8Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.4 pts
5. at BGSUQ3 2:05 4th & 3 at BGSU 49, up 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. vs MASSQ3 7:46 4th & 12 at MASS 34, tiedPunted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
7. at BGSUQ3 10:27 4th & 9 at BGSU 35, up 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
8. at BGSUQ4 3:45 4th & 9 at BGSU 22, up 9Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

36th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Miami (OH)'s chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   NU
2. L

   CIN
3. L

   ND
4. W

   MASS
5. L

   TOL
6. W

   EMU
7. W

   OHIO
8. W

   CMU
9. W

   BALL
10. W

    KENT
11. W

    NIU
12. W

    BGSU
13. L

    OHIO
14. W

    CSU

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Miami (OH)'s pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.33
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock+0.02
• Timeouts+0.08
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.45

Game by game

• NUL 6-13 at NU43% → 3%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −35, Timeouts −1
• CINL 16-27 vs CIN43% → 5%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −38: Scoreboard −47, Clock −2
• NDL 3-28 at ND5% → 0%Before kickoff −45 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −7
• MASSW 23-20 vs MASS86% → 70%Before kickoff +36 · On the field −16: Scoreboard +2, Possession & field position +2
• TOLL 20-30 at TOL37% → 43%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +5: Timeouts +4, Possession & field position +1
• EMUW 38-14 at EMU63% → 100%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +4
• OHIOW 30-20 vs OHIO64% → 97%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +32, Possession & field position +1
• CMUW 46-7 vs CMU76% → 100%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +26
• BALLW 27-21 at BALL82% → 94%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +31, Clock +2
• KENTW 34-7 vs KENT97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• NIUW 20-9 vs NIU55% → 99%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +40, Possession & field position +1
• BGSUW 28-12 at BGSU42% → 99%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +56, Clock +3
• OHIOL 3-38 vs OHIO62% → 0%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −60, Clock −2
• CSUW 43-17 at CSU54% → 100%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +51, Possession & field position −1

Points of win probability, from Miami (OH)'s side.

Closest call

MASS 20-23 M-OH (2024) - Miami (OH) dropped to a 6.6% win probability before pulling it out.